UAE Derby? Florida Derby? Who needs that when you have the Sunday card at Aqueduct, Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 1,4 / 1,3 / 1 / 3,7 / 4,7 = $8
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 1,2,4,5 / 1 / 1,2 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,4,6,7 = $80
Race 1- 4-1
#4- Moondance Joy- On paper this appears to be a two horse race but I actually think this race is so bad (horses are combined 0 for 33 at this track), it might open it up for a couple other runners. Regardless, I fell on the 2 ML choice here. She should be fresh off the layoff and it might appear that her last fast track race might be a key race as evident by two next out winners, including one in a baby stakes yesterday. It is also worth noting that she has by far the most wins of anyone in this field and doesn’t mind cashing a ticket which is more than I can say about the rest of the field.
#1- Elizabeth Nicole- There is a strong chance that Ribbonite has lost all her early speed. If that is the case, then this one should be alone on the lead. In bottom level claiming race, sometimes that is all you need to win.
Race 2- 1-3
#1- Connolly’s Beads- There are 2 things clear here. One is that this horse has some talent as evident by going for 50x the sire fee, which is one of my favorite angles. It is also clear that they are giving this horse away because he is not a perfectly healthy horse; looking at the layoff lines and drop. He is by far the horse to beat in this race but check him out on the track to see if he can move.
#3- Quintarelli- I will definitely have this horse on a few backup tickets. Bug Rider Harkie has been impressive with the mounts he has been given and he can do some of his best running on the front end. He could find himself alone on the lead and a repeat of his last might put him in the winner’s circle.
Race 3- 1-2-4
#1- Shimmering Moon- I will take the two horses that have scratched out of races this week to run in this spot. My top choice is the Rice/Lezcano combo who have been hitting at a 31% clip together. Since getting into the Rice barn, she has done little wrong and her only bad race was when she had a rough start. Look for Lezcano to get aggressive with the rail post and take the lead. If someone presses, he should give up the lead and stalk on the outside and pounce. It is also interesting that Lezcano chose this mount over my 2nd choice.
#2- Mo Flash- She also scratched out of a race yesterday for this spot. Her 4 lifetime wins have come on this strip and should be in a nice stalking position. She has never run a bad race on the dirt and is likely to be ITM.
#4- Aunt Babe- This 4yo feels like she has been around forever. She has races in her career that could win here but I feel like she needs moisture in the track to run her best.
Race 4- 3-7-2
#3- Daring Disguise- I usually do not like Linda Rice runners making their 3rd start attempting to break their maiden, but I am willing to forgive his last attempt which was a dude. I will trust Linda that the cutback is just what this colt wants. But she is going to need to bring her A game because I think there are some other runners that have talent.
#7- Red Zinger- This is clearly the horse to beat off of his 2yo races, including attempting Stakes company first time out. If he is ready, then the race is over. However, Gary Contessa, even when running well, does not have favorable numbers off of long layoffs.
#2- Laughing Manners- If a first timer is going to win, here is your horse. Charlton Baker is capable of having a firster run well, and his March 9th bullet shows he can run a bit.
#1- Seed Money- Jail move alert! But not the improvement in trainer we would hope and draws the rail.
Race 5- 7-4-2
#7- She’sakittykat- It is not often I like going to a 3% jock and a 7% trainer but I think this race can set up well for this outside runner. I really like when horses ease off their last race and come right back to run. The horse clearly likes this track and his races from early this year make her a contender. I think the low connections will actually yield us close to 5-1 and at that price, I have to take a shot.
#4- Gobi- At 8-1, this is probably the smart play. It is clear that this horse wants a fast track, and has a lot of hidden form due to the wet tracks he has gotten of late. This is a 2nd off the jail move angle which I like and I will actually have this horse singled on a couple of big tickets to try to make a big score. If we get 5-1 or more, then I will make a big win bet. She is my 2nd choice to win the race, but will be the better bet due to value.
#2- Devilish Romance- Bad favorite but can finish ITM. Any race where Bruce Brown and Luzzi are on the two favorites are sure to yield prices for us.
Race 6- 4-7-9
#4- Brockthebank- This 2nd time starter looks far and away the one to beat. I love when trainers jump their horses up in class off a loss. This one is going from 30k to 50k and unless one of the firsters can run, he should win easy here.
#7- Bustin Shout- Those that have followed me for awhile know that I am a sucker for Bustin Stones babies. They usually can run fast and run early. This one is going to be north of 20-1 and at the very least should “bust” out of the gate and run like his siblings. Worth a dart throw at a big price.
#9- Ventus- Another huge bomb that I will take a shot with. He has not run a step in 3 career races, but all of those came on off tracks. Who knows what he can do on a fast track. Worth a shot at the price.
Race 7- 7-5-4
#7- Ragtime Suzy- I am taking a shot here because I don’t fully trust the chalk. Suzy is perfectly positioned on the outside and last time she might have found out what she has been wanting to do all along; sprinting on the dirt. Thomas Bush has great numbers off of long layoffs and if the chalks don’t show up, here is your winner at a price.
#5- Trouble for Skylar- As we near Belmont, one angle to look for is the combo of Carmouche/Gargan/Midwest. They won together a couple of years ago at an insane rate and horseplayers are rejoicing seeing them back together. If she runs back to her last race, they are all running for 2nd but where did that race come from? It was a huge jump up in speed for this horse and a bounce is possible.
#4- Promise Me Roses- Rudy scratched out of yesterday to run in this spot which is a good sign. This horse is a few days short of a jail move, but expecting Rudy to improve off of Rob Atras is a mistake. Include but don’t expect the typical Rudy magic first off the claim.
Race 8- 4-7-8
#4- Elegant Zip- She has the most experience and rarely runs a bad race. She should sit the perfect stalking trip and pounce late. If you look at just her one-turn mile races, she is a standout in this field.
#7- Cheatham Hill- Throw Jason Servis out at your own risk. He won easy last time out on the stretch out and there is probably more in the tank than what she showed. When you see Franco and Servis at 8-1, you must include all over your tickets.
#8- Flush- Very interesting horse to consider and can improve on the stretch out.
Race 9- 9-5-2