It was fun while it lasted but the streak came to a crashing halt. Let’s see if we can start a new one. There is rain in the forecast, but it should not begin until later in the day. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 play – 1 / 1,4,5 / 2,3,5 / 4,5 / 5 = $9 (many many times)
Aggressive Pick 5 play- 1,4 / ALL / 2,3,5 / 2,4,5,6 / 5 = $84
Race 1- 1-4
Looks like a two horse race as two of these horses look like they do not even belong. #4 Gracetown has had her chances. #1 Sanaable looks like the likely winner and single on most tickets.
Race 2- 5-1-4
Race 2 is a group of really rough horses. Every horse in this group last ran in the state bred 25k MCL ranks. Want to guess what each of their odds were at this level?
#1- Blue Skies Forever – 10-1
#2- Soup Baby- 21-1
#3- Quintarelli – 18-1
#4- Noble Behavior – 7-1 (94-1 before that)
#5- Theresa’s Boy- 2-1, (5-1 before that)
#6- Well in Tune- 71-1
#7- Ridolfo- 27-1
Just based on this info, I want to take #5 Theresa’s Boy. She may burn even more money but do I really want to take 9/5 on a horse that was 7/1 and 94/1 in her two prior races at this level? Or do I really want to take 3-1 on Luzzi and a horse that was 10-1 last time out? 5 is the top choice based on process of elimination. Good race to hit the “all” button since none of these like to even earn a check.
Race 3- 2-3-5
#2- Malibu Action- This appears to be the underlay of the card due to the connections. But do you want to lose and not include a Rob Atras horse on your ticket right now? Not me. If he could win last time out for Timothy Hills, I can have confidence that Atras will keep this horse sharp; as evident by the huge jump in class. It is also worth noting that this horse loves a fast track (9 for 18 in the exacta) and hates the wet stuff. If it rains early, downgrade.
#3- Happy Farm- The ML favorite has not been seen this year. Looking at the workouts in the AM, something must have gone wrong. It is also surprising they didn’t send this horse South to battle state breds. My thinking is they want to dump this horse. We shall see because he can win if healthy.
#5- Aristocratic- This is probably the best value of the race and the best play. He likes to earn checks but might be a need the lead type. The good thing is you get a very aggressive jockey and if they give him the lead, he may not look back.
Race 4- 5-4-2
This race looks like a live firster can win it. The only horse that has experience, that looks interesting is #2 Falsifier. It is getting a complete makeover today as evident by the addition of lasix, blinkers, and competent rider. He is an interesting horse to include if you are looking to bring a little value to the race.
Race 5- 5
#5- First Forever- Linda Rice on 2nd time starters is always a money maker. This will be my strong single on both P5’s. It is very interesting that this one took favoritism 1st time out since Linda’s horses often need a race. I think this one has some talent and exits a decent state bred race with two next out winners. SINGLE!
Race 6- 5-1-3
#5- Sing For Beauty- Here is my big bomb of the day. It is a reach but I think she will be around 15-1 and has the ability to wire this field. Last time out at this level he went off at 8/5 and did little running. That was on a wet track which she clearly does not like. If you look at her fast track attempts, she fits here and is capable of at least hitting the board; if not winning. At huge odds, she is worth a look.
#1- Pretty Enuff- Dylan Davis hops off my top pick to ride the ML favorite. She is the one to beat and should appreciate the cutback in distance. The only red flag is that this barn is not doing well of late and does not do well with cutbacks or horses first off the claim. Likely winner, but vulnerable.
#3- Promises Me Roses- Two big angles to like here. First Rob Atras. Second, he scratched out of Saturday to run today.
Race 7- 1-7-5
#1- Win With Pride- Looks to be the class of the field and would be entering this race on a 4 race win streak if not trying the Graded Stakes company. There is plenty of speed signed on to set up for the stalking trip. Since the claim, he has been as consistent as they come.
#7- Reed Kan- It is not often that you can keep a horse in good shape after claiming from Jason Servis, but that is just what Kantarmaci has done. He needs the lead to win but will have to battle to get it. The post doesn’t help but he can win.
#5- No Distortion- If you are looking for a big price on the bottom of your exotics, here is your huckleberry. Jail Move city and should be sitting a nice trip off the speed. Only one work for the new connections but that was a bullet workout. Looks to be a horse that runs well fresh and that is what you get here. Watch out at a price.
Race 8- 1-5-7 (fast track) / 2-1-7 (wet track)