For those that still have a Pegasus Championship hangover, I got you covered for Aqueduct. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 3-1-2
Not much to say here with this weak 5-horse field of maidens. These 3 should definitely get you out of the first leg of the pick 5- #3 That’s Speightful ran a decent 2nd last time out on a course that seemed favorable to speed. She should be able to sit right off #2 War of States and put her away around the turn. The Michael Trombetta runner had tried her luck down at Laurel; a much weaker group than these and could not break through. Now will be cutting back after losing by 18 lengths last time out. #1- Gottahaveholiday is an interesting runner for Michelle Nevin. She does very well with horses off long layoffs and attracts leading rider, Manny Franco.
Race 2- 4-3-2
We should have a fast track tomorrow and that is what #4 American Lincoln needs. Last two times out he caught a wet track and it is a surface he clearly wants nothing to do with. The one turn mile may be shorter than what he ultimately wants but I will put my trust in the Mile master to get him home. #3 Fillet of Sole will be sporting one of my favorite angles; a jump in class of a loss. Jason Servis does a great job spotting his horses so I trust that he will be ready despite the spike in class. #2- Starship Zeus has run the fastest numbers but it is hard to trust a horse who likes to come in 2nd and 3rd.
Race 3- 7-1-4
This race is filled with horses that have “buy me” attached to them. This is a spread race for me since this looks like a really bad group with no one seeming having any early zip. The #1 Loverboy Lou will be a heavy favorite based of his last figure but is anything but a lock. #7- Majid may improve getting into Rudy’s barn, but hardly a confident angle getting horses from the Cox barn; on a horse that can be claimed for a tenth of his purchase price.
Race 4- 4-7-1
Another handicapping angle I like is when a trainer scratches a horse for another race. #4 Shalako was entered in the January 26th card and was scratched in a spot that he would have probably won for this spot. He comes in 2nd off the long layoff and if he runs any of his races from last year he wins. #7 Turco Bravo just turned a decade old a few weeks ago and is on a 3 race win streak. He is the one to beat but hard to trust a barn 0 for 26. #1 Outplay is a legit contender to wire the field.
Race 5- 4-8-3
I am coming out swinging with this pick here at 10-1 ML. Chances are it will be even more than that at post time. He may be a reach but there are few good signs here. First is that trainer Linda Rice has decided to protect this horse instead of dropping him off his last race which was terrible. However, there is plenty of early pace on paper and this horse should be forwardly placed, right behind the main speed. This horse has also shown a history of running his best races off the layoff. His last two races off a nice layoff resulted in a win and a close 2nd place finish which happened to be his fastest time. Last time out at this level he went off as the favorite and now you can have him at 5x the price. Now is the time to score with him. #8 Tribecca is by far the horse to beat but he has had a history of burning money in the past. He has the speed and class advantage on this field if ready. #3- Speightful Kitten has never won on the dirt but last time he was on a fast track lost to Stoney Bennett who came back to win back to back races including a stakes. #1- Analyze the Odds is out of the Jason Servis barn and throw anything from this outfit at your own risk.
Race 6- 7-2-4
I really am not a fan of the favorite #6 Viradia. When horses are coming in off long layoffs and being dropped it is usually not a good sign. I also question of this horse is faster than the other competitors. #2- Trouble for Skylar and #7 Parlapiano actually have MSW victories which is something that the main two favorites can’t say. My top pick Parlapiano may not want the wet track that he has gotten the last 3 times out. If he goes back to that Oct 19th race; his last race on a fast track then they are all running for 2nd. #2 Trouble for Skylar has a similar profile of my top pick but twice the value and the right jock for bringing home a price. #4 Votre Coeur always manages to get a slice and should be forwardly placed.
Race 7- 7-1-8
#1- Pure Shot- Lightly raced and has a right to improve here. He was a bit in over his head the last couple of times out and will start his 4yo campaign in this realistic spot. Steve Assmussen usually needs a race off the long layoff but he can make some noise in the exotics.
#2- Jewel Can Disco- Will set the pace and appreciate the cut back in distance. Not sure if he is fast enough but might hold on for a check
#3- Win with Pride- He has some really fast figures but most of those came at Belmont. I can forgive his last race as it came in the G3 Fall Heavyweight and at 127 lbs. Similar to the 1 horse, he comes back to a more realistic spot. Is he only a Belmont horse though?
#4- Deep Sea- I usually love a horse that jumps up twice in class and only a few days short of a jail move. But it is hard to trust a horse leaving the Servis and Rudy barns into the Toscano barn. He does love the track and will be a nice price.
#5- Angry Moon- Luzzi. Enough said.
#6- Take your Place- Toscano has banked 128k off this great 25k claim. He runs back at a similar class after a decent 2nd place finish after getting beat by a next out winner.
#7- Tommy T- He looks like the one that will be much the best here. I am hoping his last was just a sign that he hates the wet going. Any of his races from last year destroys these.
#8- Runaway Lute- He is another that will appreciate the drop in class. Is it possible that he is another that just likes Belmont?
Race 8- 1-6
#1- Enliven – We beat her last time after not believing she wanted to go that long. She gets back to one turn and that should be the difference.
#6- Miss Imperial- She is getting better and might improve with another furlong to run.
Race 9- 3-5-4
#3- It’s a Lovely Day- what is the single most profitable angle in the history of horse racing? Anyone? It is the Jail Move. Who is the master of the Jail Move? Mr. Jason Servis. Yes he is being claimed from the Chad Brown barn but somehow he gets his horses ready on the jail move. I can also make excuses for her first 3 races. First time out, she lost to Sassy Agnes who came back to win a nice stakes race. 2nd time and 3rd time out she caught the slop and even beat next out winner Gypsy Mama last time out. If you give me 6-1 on this horse, I will be keying her up and down, left and right.
#5- Delta Gamma- Linda Rice hits at a sick 44% rate when adding blinkers and attracts the mile master. I will be keying my top two choices heavy.
#4- Princess Pinky- The ML favorite has run the fastest races. She is also starting to run out of chances and is often caught wide and can’t close the deal. The upgrade in jock is noticeable.