What can I say? The last 3 weeks have been very fun. We know the streak will end eventually but hopefully, I have a few more good weeks in me. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 play – 1 /2,6 / 2,6 / 3 / ALL = ($14)
Aggressive Pick 5 play- 1,3 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,3,6 / 1,3 / ALL = $168
Race 1- 1-3
These two horses should get you out of the first leg of the Pick 5. The heavy favorite will be #1 Master Distiller for Horacio DePaz. He has not a great percentage trainer but he excels with horses going 2nd off the layoff. I expect this one to send from the rail. If he is not contested then it will be a walk in the park. If #3 Lonhtwist challenges, I hope Eric Cancel doesn’t run this horse into submission. In the event that Cancel gets too aggressive, Lonhtwist does rate a slight chance to upset. I am often a fan of horses getting back to their original distance and surface like this one is here. He has faced some tough company in the past and might have found the right field here.
Race 2- 2-4-6
#2- One River Place- Looks to be a solid play here. One of my favorite angles is when trainers scratch out of a race and point them toward another one. Rudy scratched One River Place out of a race on Thursday to run him here. The downside is I am concerned he scratched him that day due to the sloppy track; which is a track he may see today. In the event this horse fails in the slop, there are a couple of alternatives.
#4- Call Me- It is interesting that Kantamarci is running this horse right back in less than a week off the claim. My guess is that this horse is in a good spot to win here. He is another I am concerned with in the slop but fits here.
#6- Take it To Scale- If you are looking for a huge price to score here then look no further than this jail move for Chris Englehart. His two best races were at this distance, albeit on a fast track.
Race 3- 6-2-3
#6- Curlin Creek- This will be my play of the day as the 3rd choice in the ML in a 6 horse field. I only wish that we had a better jock on him than the 3% Hernandez. Last time out, he ran impressively considering he was wide the entire race on a day where the rail was gold. A similar effort on a fair track makes him a winner. It is also worth noting that the breeding suggest that you can upgrade this horse on an off track.
#2- Thunder’s Honor- This will be the likely single on most tickets after his big run on November. However it is concerning that this horse has been away for 3 months and has only been working out once every two weeks. This drop is class is very suspect. Weaver done a great job with horses off a long break but one has to wonder if this horse likes a wet track or if he is sound. Check him out on the track for a hint.
#3- Equal the Score- He will need to improve off his first three races but good luck throwing anything out from this barn.
Race 4- 3-1-6
#3- Incubator- The only thing stopping me from singling this horse is the possibility of a wet track. This is a huge jail move and one that screams winners circle. Rudy is “jumping” this horse more than double the amount off the claim. When you see a trainer do this, throw out the form because it means he is ready to run. The only other concern is that there appears to be a ton of speed signed on. It is possible him and my 3rd pick can get into a fight early.
#1- Have Another- If the 3 and 6 hook up in a n early duel, here is your winner. This big closer will go first off the claim for Jason Servis who only wins at a 42% clip going first off the claim. Usually I like to bet Servis off the claim but I found it interesting that he did not point this horse at a higher claiming price. Unlike the Rudy claim, I wonder if this shows his lack in confidence and is trying to dump this horse and not take a loss on the claim.
#6- Devine Dental- Jockey Gutierrez is extremely aggressive and I expect him to fight early for the lead. He has races fast enough but needs to avoid getting into a duel with my top pick.
Race 5- 4-6-7
This is a very interesting race faced with plenty of horses taking huge drops. The classiest horse in the race is #6 Spectacular Kid. However you have to be skeptical of a horse that has not run since this summer being offered for 14k. This after spending the whole year facing the best 3yo State Breds. The one to beat, but you have to wonder. #4- Heavy Meddle will be my tepid top pick due to him being the most consistent of these. His mid 70s Beyer figures should get him in the winners circle. #7- Swiping Dan is another taking a huge drop after not racing in 3 months.
Race 6- 4-6-3
#4 – Big Birthday looks like the class of the field and will be in a perfect stalk and pounce position. He has run the fastest races and although he may not want to go much further, the 7F distance should be short enough for him to win.
#6- Picture Day- This 7YO mare loves this track and I take it as a positive sign that Linda Rice keeps this horse at the same level. If the track is playing fair kind to the outside, she can make some noise late to upset.
#3- DJ’s Favorite- I am against the “other” Rice horse on top. I actually think that she will use this horse to set it up for my 2nd choice. She has no excuse for losing last time out after setting a strong pace on the strong part of the bias track.
Race 7- 4-7-2
#4- Battle of Saratoga- If there is an off track I will be sprinting to the windows to play this horse. It is not often you get a chance to bet a Union Rags going out for the first time on an off track. But when they do, I hammer it down. Granted the 9/5 ML price will not be generous but I have no problem singling this horse in multi-race bets. He has a win on this track and this distance and all signs point to back to back wins.
#7- Calculated Risk- I am willing to give this failed favorite another chance, especially if it comes up being an off track. Raymond Handel does a great job going 2nd off the layoff and attracts the leading rider.
#2- Here Comes Tommy- This is always a great horse to wheel underneath. He is usually long odds and likes to cash checks but not win (unless someone other than Luzzi is riding). You should get the same situation here again.
Race 8- 1-4-3