Last Sunday of 2019 and we are treated with a very good nine race card, with competitive fields all through the day. Let’s go to the analysis:
1st race: 1 Mile. Clm 16000 Purse $36,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
2-3-5
We will go with a price right off the bat, in a race in which you can not deny any of the participants a fair chance to win. Seven Lilies (2) was very close of lighting up the toteboard at odds of 48-1 on his most recent, which was his first at the Big A. And the race is better, considering that Big Thicket, who beat him by a nose that day, came back to win this week. He will not be anywhere close to his odds last time out, but should offer value nonetheless. Daddy D T (3) will go on his third after a lengthy layoff, and he showed signs of improvement last time out. The last time he ran for the price he is tagged today, he won easily, so should be considered one of the top choices. Orpheus (5) keeps running well, but his aversion to winning continues, with just 1 win in his last 27 starts. He is the perfect underneath horse, and there is where we will recommend him.
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘OC 80000n1x Purse $64,000 FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
2-1-5
Sneaky Surprise (2) returns from close to eight months in the shelf after winning impressively first time out. This is a pretty salty spot to return, but she is working great and I expect a big effort off the layoff. Franco prefers her over the 9-5 ML choice. Firenze Freedom (1) tried a stakes race, bypassing the first allowance condition and she didn’t do bad at all. Now returns to a sprint and is facing a much easier group. She needs pace for her late run to be effective, not that sure she will get it. Playtone (5) completes the selection, she failed as the favorite last time out, in a race which does not seems that good, because Big Q later flunked dramatically in another stakes race. But she should be forwardly placed in a area in which I don’t see that much early zip.
3rd race: 1 Mile. ‘Mdn 60k Purse $60,000 FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
1-7-4
Cold Hard Cash (1) looks solid in this race, after just missing breaking his maiden at the start of the meeting. Linda Rice gave him a good seven weeks to recover and he should be watching the speedsters duel to submission. The experiment with the blinkers is the only thing that doesn’t let me recommend him as a standout, as well as the fact that shows just one work in preparation. Zipalong (7) debuted on the grass and found no pace whatsoever to close into. This race looks loaded with speed, so the pace scenario is much more favorable for him. If he takes to the dirt, he will be dangerous. Empire Express (4) is another one that made his first presentation on the lawn, and ran creditably in a less than firm surface. Now Bard Cox switches him to the main track, and he shows a 25% effectivity rate doing that. the turn back to one tun also might help him.
4th race: 7 Furlongs. Clm 25000n3L Purse $37,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.
2-4-7
Loverboy Lou (2) come back from a seven month rest against the easiest group he has faced. His works leading up to this comeback makes me think he is ready to pounce right off the bench and Carmouche already won with him. Northern Haze (4) has been a popular commodity on the claim box and he just missed last time in a race extremely similar to this one. That extra furlong might be just what the doctor ordered. Rally Cap (7) will be part of that early fray for the lead, but has shown the capacity to be just off the early duelers and come with a late run to win. He should employ this same tactics today and not be burned into submission from an early speed fight.
5th race: 1 Mile. ‘Mdn 60k Purse $60,000 FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
6-9-5
Wild Banker (6) ran against Chestertown, a very good colt, and he didn’t disgrace himself, losing by less than six lengths. This group looks to be a tad easier and it will be his second time at the mile distance, and he should fare better. Hellbender (9) has been nailed twice very close to the wire in his last two races, both on the grass. Now gets a cutback in distance and a switch in surface, and he will be part of that early flight from the start. Too Early (5) ran in both Hellbender’s races and has had some problems at the start. Linda Rice puts blinkers on him, trying to correct the problem, and if he gets away cleanly from the blocks, he can spring a nice upset.
6th race: 1 Mile. ™‘Alw 64000n1x Purse $64,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
8-3-11
Am Impazible (8) closed very well against a very soft pace, improving in her debut run, and the additional distance should help her cause. Thee should be enough pace for her late run to be felt late, so she looks very solid in here. The Great Johanna (3) has win two straight after going 0 for her first nine starts. Apparently that light bulb is still working, and her chances are again extremely good. Junior Alvarado still going to the pond with her. Paved with Gold (11) drew a very favorable outside post that will allow her to watch that early speed fray develop and try to come from just off the pace.
7th race: 7 Furlongs. Alw 70000n1x Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
9-10-7
Potomac (9) was claimed by Steve Asmussen in August and is running under his tutelage for the first time. Coming back from a four month shelf stay, it is encouraging that he is not being risked for a tag and his works leading up to this race have been good. Drew a nice cozy nine out of ten post. The Caretaker (10) is a very consistent hard knocker and has been very requested in the claim box, an indicative that he is feeling well. Rudy claimed him two races ago and should be much better now second time under Rudy. Charlie Mc Coy (7) is one of the horses that should provide the early fireworks and now goes second time out after a seven month ret stay on the barn. If he is let loose on the lead, he is a threat to wire this field.
8th race: 1 1/8 Mile. ™‘BayRidgeB100K Bay Ridge S. Purse $100,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
5-3-1
Our Super Nova (5) just ran third against the Grade I winner Spiced Perfection, in a performance that if she repeats it, they will all be running for second. The question mark with her will be the two turns, but against this group, she deserves the favorite’s role. Held Accountable (3) has shown that, the longer the trip, the better for her, and that additional furlong should work wonders for her. Cancel is riding very well lately and knows her like the palm of his hand. Out of Orbit (1) is the one that can steal this race, coming from that rail post. The problem with her is that Cartwheel will keep her honest up front, but she is game enough to with stand the pressure and can not deny her a chance in here.
9th race: 1 Mile. MC 30000 Purse $35,000 (UP TO $6,090 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
3-7-10Bobbyfromthepalm (3) ran a mile two months after running five an a half furlongs in his debut, and understandably tired at the end. Now he has this race under his belt and George Weaver hits at a 24% race second after a layoff. Franco keeps the mount for one of his favorite clients. Uncle Ned (7) keeps dropping, showing that the $375,000 that they paid for him are a sure thing not to be recovered. In such a low quality group, he does not have to improve to stand a chance in here. Hostile Witness (10) is maybe the fastest in here and if he can establish a slow enough pace, he can be long gone. Remember, in these groups, there are no big late runs.