It’s Opening weekend at the Big A, and in Breeders Cup Saturday we have a ten race card highlighted by the Turnback the Alarm Handicap, a Grade III for Fillies and Mares on the dirt. I want to again thanks The Daily Gallop for the opportunity they are giving me to share my views with all of you. Let’s get down to business.
1st race: 6½ Furlongs. ™Mdn 70k. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.
Cambier Parc (#4) – A seven figure buy last year, she is out of a hard knocking stakes winner that had Woodbine as her home base. Her works for this debut run have been consistent with the style Chad Brown employs with firsters, and the fact that he is not waiting for the Ortiz brothers to ride her makes me think she is ultra-live in here.
Point of Honor (#6) – A daughter of the mighty Curlin, she has been training at the Spa regularly for George Weaver, and Dylan Davis takes the call. This is important to mention because Davis has ridden the one horse in this field that has performed better so far.
Cariba (#1) – The Cairo Prince progeny has been slowly stamping itself as one with lots of talent, and this gal was hammered at $400,000, a 16X factor versus the sire service fee. Trainer Mc Laughlin first call, Junior Alvarado, climbs on the saddle and the rail has always been good at Sprints at the Big A.
2nd race: 1 Mile. Clm 20000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Fleet Irish (#1) – He needs a solid pace up front for his late run to be effective, and with a good portion of the horses in this field coming from running in sprints, he should get it. Linda Rice is a killer sending a horse from two sprints to a route and second after a claim, and fired a bullet two weeks ago in preparation.
Zap Zap Zap (#5) – Rudy Rodriguez claimed him last time out for 14,000 and now sends him for a higher price tag, an angle I always love. Has four breezes in preparation for this race and apparently, he is slowly returning to his late last year form.
Borsa Vento (#2) – First off the claim for Tom Morley, who excels dropping off a claim (40%), this horse should be prominent from the gitgo and McCarthy should be one of the leading jockeys in this colony, taking advantage of the fact that the big honchos will eventually move to Gulfstream.
3rd race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 35000n3L. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Follow the Signs (#10) – First time facing this condition of non-winners of three, his most recent start was three months ago, taking a much better field wire to wire at Saratoga. It is somewhat of a concern that his new trainer drops him off that last solid effort, but his work pattern since that time has been consistent and I don’t see much speed signed in.
Durango Dan (#3) – Hasn’t crossed the finish line in front in the last eighteen months, but the truth is he has been facing much tougher company and this is his third race after a yearlong absence from the track. The Presque Isle Downs surface behaves a lot like turf, so he will feel the surface switch at all.
Wingman (#7) – Has lost twice against similar company, but now he should be one of the main speedsters and he already has a win in this same grass course, something others don’t have in this bunch. Eric Cancel is another jockey that should excel at this meeting.
4th race: 7 Furlongs. ™‘Alw 66000n1x. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Thirsty Gal (#3) – She will be a very tough beat in this race. Should be right on the first flight when they spring the latch and she is now under the tutelage of Chris Englehart, a perennial leading trainer at Finger Lakes, now sending this filly south to Queens. She arced just over two weeks ago, another solid sign of confidence.
My Roxy Girl (#6) – Too many second place finishes to my liking, but she is quick and there is a scarcity of that in this race. She should be forwardly placed from the start, in a track that has always favored speed, and in where she has scored all her three lifetime wins, she is dangerous.
Beyond Discreet (#4) – Takes a healthy cut back in distance that can be what the doctor ordered for her. She needs pace enough for a meltdown in front, but if Hector Diaz can place her not that far from the leaders, she will be right there at the stretch.
5th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) ‘Mdn 62k. TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE.
Wicked Grin (#8) – Horse had a “less than perfect” trip in his last race, coming from the one hole, not being able to get in the fray for the lead and then getting behind a wall of horses on the top of the stretch. Cohen stays up, a definitive confidence signal and has three works in preparation for his first race in seven weeks.
Bobby Man (#11) – If he makes it from the Also Eligibles, he is very dangerous. In his only race, he beat my favorite after being almost left at the gate. He came flying at the center of the track and was asking for more ground to run. Dylan Davis takes the call for John Terranova.
Capt. Courageous (#6) – Of the first time starters, this is the one that caught my attention. Trainer Abreu’s specialty if the MSW level on the turf, and the works tell me this horse should be fast out of the blocks.
6th race: 1 Mile. OC 62500n2x. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
J S Bach (#2) – I think he is the quickest in this field, and if he wants, Lezcano can have an easy lead up front. He definitely likes Aqueduct, with two wins and three show finished in five starts, and both of his wins at this track have come at this one mile trip.
Cloud Computing (#7) – The 2017 Preakness winner returns to the races against a salty group of hard knockers who will not make his work easy. Although he has some speed, no doubt that he prefers to have a target to chase. Another question to answer is if he is fully cranked for this race, I think is better to watch and evaluate.
Hammerin Ammer (#5) – Very consistent individual, so much that he has hit the board in all his last ten starts, so he makes for a great exotics player. Just fired a bullet at Belmont in preparation and Luis Reyes is a very underrated jockey, who will benefit from the move to the Big A.
7th race: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 70k. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
Umbrage (#10) – I am not impressed with any of the experimented runners, so I will go with a first time starter for Christophe Clement, whose numbers with 2 year olds and in the Maiden Special Weight categories deserves consideration. This colt just fired a bullet work at Belmont and from that outside post should be able to manage a good trip.
U R Not So Bad – Promising first race, losing with Code of Honor, who went yesterday in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but that last race was kind of a head scratcher. If he comes back to the form shown in his debut, he will be dangerous.
Performer (#5) – Shug Mc Gaughey generally is not known for debut runners success, but this one seems to be a talented colt. Has an extraordinary breeze at Belmont on the eight of October that puts him right in contention for the win, and Dylan Davis gets on him.
8th race: 1ˆ Mile. (Outer Turf) Clm 25000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Sycamore Lane (#4) – Don’t see much initial foot in here besides maybe the #5 horse, so he should be able to accommodate in a tactical spot and then come with his run from the three eighths pole on. Alvarado and Mott have always been a winning combo.
Shamcat (#8) – We will draw a line over his last race sprinting at Belmont. That was on a less than firm grass. Course should be firmer for today, much more of his liking and that last effort will serve him as a bolt tightener for this one. He is a two time Aqueduct winner, an important point to consider.
Wicked Freud (#9) – Not much of a winning machine, but he always manages to get a share for their connections. Ran just nine days ago, so all indications are he came up fresh from that effort and is ready to pounce from mid pack.
9th race: 1 1/8 Mile. ™TnbkAlmH-G3 Turnback the Alarm H. Grade III. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Teresa Z (#1) – Grade III winner that has been facing much tougher company, namely Wow Cat and Elate, one of them running in today’s Breeders Cup Distaff. The presence of Bishop’s Pond should ensure that Divine Miss grey will not get an easy lead, and that last breeze at Monmouth shows how well she is coming into this race.
Divine Miss Grey (#4) – Just as my favorite, she is been running against the crème of the crème. She likes to dictate the pace and most probably, she is the quickest of them all, the mile and an eighth and the presence of fillies like Bishop’s Pond and Moonlite Garden complicate things for her. But she is also capable of coming just off the pace, so she is a major player in here.
Holy Helena (#6) – Running at conventional dirt for just the fourth time in her career, the last time she faced graded company on this surface she was very overmatched. But James Jerkens puts blinkers on her for the first time, and this is a very classy filly, and we cannot throw her to the can that easily. Expect a better performance out of her.
10th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) ™Mdn 70k. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.
Laska (#6) – She debuted at Laurel Park and found an ultra slow pace up front not to be of her liking, and anyway she made up ten lengths and came roaring down the stretch. Now comes to a much better circuit, an indication of the confidence their team has in this filly. David Cohen has the call now for Michael Matz.
Alasayil (#3) – Her debut was against Newspaperofrecord. That alone makes her a contender here. She will be part of the early flight and from that #3 post, she will be able to sit a nice, comfortable trip inside and if she finds the space at the right time, she will be a force to be reckoned with in this event.
Keeneasabean (#9) – Compromised also by a slow early pace in her debut, she made good ground late against Pakhet, who ran yesterday in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. With a little more pace to work with now, that late run should prove more effective.