Hoping we get a much-needed break from the weather here at the Big A, we have another very nice nine race card, highlighted by the Grade III Red Smith for three year olds and upward on the grass. A full field has signed in for this mile and three eights event, lest see if the weather cooperates. Forecast calls for only a 10% chance of rain, but precipitation was expected for Friday, so let’s pray.
1st race: 1 Mile. Clm 10000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
No Distortion (#1) – The fact that he raced just eight days ago makes me think he is ready to pounce against this group of hard knockers. The inside draw in this mail distance is a plus and Cohen stays on the saddle for new trainer Dermot Magner. The best horses in here are the ones showing the most tendency to be off form, so I’ll go for a bit of a price in the opener. Has been extremely popular at the claim box over the last four months.
Marriage Fever (#4) – This grizzled old nine-year-old veteran always gives a good account of himself, and we don’t see much speed in here, so he should be able to be right in the first flight from the start. Rosario guided him to a solid third place finish in his most recent, and is back on him once again, a good sign in a 10,000 claimer.
Sparty Boy (#5) – Was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez and immediately drops him to a lower priced race, looking for a quick gain ($12K first money prize and an additional $10K if claimed). He was somewhat disappointing in that last start with no visible excuse, so he is not the most reliable of favorites.
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) Clm 35000n3L. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
The Queens Jules (#3) – Figures to be the speediest of this bunch and that last race at a mile and a sixteenth should serve him as a nice bolt tightener. Has four works since that last effort, two of them good enough to be labeled as bullet works, and Hall Of Famer John Velázquez, looking to go over the 6,000 wins plateau, stays up for trainer Wesley Ward.
Dragon Moon (#5) – Was a two time winner at Lingfield in groups much saltier than this one. Now, after being claimed for $20,000, sizzling hot Jason Servis runs for almost double of the investment. That last race was at Keeneland’s main track, now returns to his preferred surface and Irad prefers him over the 1 and the 6, which were possibilities also. Number for Servis when running first off the claim are off the charts (39% and a +0.88 ROI).
Ghost Giant (#8) – This is the first time he is facing this non-winners of three condition, a factor that I always take into consideration. José Ortiz has already been on him, and one of his two wins have been with him at the reigns. I think he will be much closer to the pace than on his most recent effort.
Off the Turf: 4-11-3
3rd race: 1 Mile. ™OC 62500b. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Sunset Ridge (#4) – It’s obvious that something has gone amiss with this very talented filly for her to be on the shelf for such a long time. I don’t think she needs to be at a 100% to win against these, and most probably she will not be. But her fiercest rival is making a jump from six and a half furlongs to a mile, and most importantly, first time at two turns, so the favorite has the advantage.
Satisfy (#3) – I have stated the reasons why she is not my favorite, but if she can get a clear lead and the added distance is not too much for her, she is more than capable of ending my favorite’s undefeated run. Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado is one of the most effective tandems, especially with fillies, and she keeps showing on her works she is maintaining that same good form.
Jump Ruler (#2) – She is the most experienced runner at this distance, and two of her three wins have been running this same trip. She can be the thorn in the side for Satisfy, not letting her run away up front from the gitgo.
4th race: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 62k. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Trip Ups (#4) – Jumping from maiden claimers to allowance maidens is a positive sign. Another factor to take into consideration is that he didn’t have much pace to run against in his debut, and the fact that Scott Lake runs him here at Aqueduct and not in Parx tells me he is live.
Le General (#9) – Trainer Michelle Nevin sends him to the shelf for five months after an auspicious debut run, and he has been posting bullet work after bullet work since September. Interestingly, Johnny V., who’s looking for a milestone win, is not his saddle after such a promising race.
Tazmonian Devil (#7) – Trainer Alex Maymó generally runs his horses at Finger Lakes and Parx. So why is he sending this runner here? He already struck gold at Saratoga with a debut runner that paid over $25.00, so don’t be surprised if this one runs well in here.
5th race: 7 Furlongs. Alw 75000n1x. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Palladian Bridge (#5) – Talk about a hard knocking mare; she was bought for 8K and has earned $350K plus in a twenty seven race career. You can not fault her connections for trying in the Iroquois. That experiment was not successful at all, now comes back to a much more suitable spot, and she has three wins from seven starts at the Big A. Leading jockey Manny Franco is up trainer Raymond Handal.
Bluegrass Jamboree (#10) – Second off the layoff for Charlton Baker, that outside post should allow her to follow the early fray up front from a cozy garden spot. Steady string of works since that last effort indicate she is ready to fire her best shot.
Electric Forest (#2) – She is the one filly that has the most upside in this bunch. Had her share of problems in that last start at Churchill, comes back now from six months on the bench Working steadily since September. Jose Ortiz still on her, a good sign.
6th race: 6 Furlongs. ‘MC 25000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Back of the Watch (#6) – In a very difficult race to analyze and digest, I think this is the horse that has the least questions to answer. He goes from a 12% trainer to a 24% trainer, and Irad stays up for Finger Lakes dominant trainer Chris Englehart. Good work last week at Belmont and should be prominent from the bell.
Okeamo (#3) – After a subpar effort in a race coming off the turf, his trainer gives up on him and plunges him to this bottom level maiden claimer, hoping he can wake up with a good performance. He does not have to do much to figure in such a bad group of horses.
Sandlot Star (#5) – If he takes to the dirt and is at least slightly alleviated from what it seems to be a very fragile condition, just by his class he can dominate. But lately, these kind of horses dropping sharply when returning from a long break are not firing at all.
7th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) OC 62500b. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Snap Decision (#4) – I find interesting that this horse came back from a layoff in a dirt race, in which he pretty much went in a merry-go-round way over the track. That was just two weeks ago. Now returns to his preferred surface and Mc. Gaughey gives the mount to Manny Franco, the leading jockey. He has been running against much better horses than these he will be facing.
Gucci Factor (#7) – Extremely consistent horse and with Rosario he has two wins in his last four starts. He needs for the pace to be live upfront, and most probably he will get that hot pace he needs. His race in the Ashley T Cole gives him the best chance in here and has three works in preparation for trainer Christophe Clement.
Dr. Edgar (#9) – Of the speedsters in here, he Is the one I prefer. He is somewhat compromised by the outside post, but he clearly is an improved horse and will not shock me at all if he keeps on winning. Dylan Davis knows him perfectly and he returns on him, looking for his fourth win in his last five efforts.
Off the Turf: 10-1-6
8th race: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf) RedSmith-G3. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Teodoro (#1) – After a very subpar performance in his vow run in the US, he stayed here under the care of trainer Tom Morley, and there were a set of circumstances that I think didn’t allow him to run a better race. First, he was given a work two days before the race that maybe took a lot out of him; second, he was too close to the pace in a race in which the winner ran very respectable fractions for a mile and a half, and third, he wasn’t given enough time to acclimate to his new surroundings. I expect an improved effort from this horse, and Rosario climbs up. There are no world-beaters here, a he is a Grade III winner in Great Britain.
Focus Group (#12) – If he gets into the race, no doubt that he has to be considered the horse to beat. Maybe he needed that last race at Woodbine, as he toiled down the stretch in the Grade I Canadian International. Before that, he won three out of four and Jose Ortiz knows him like the palm of his hand. He is 2 for 2 at today’s distance.
Call Provision (#6) – He is another distance specialist, with four wins and three seconds in eight lifetime starts at this trip. He has spent close to two months resting, so he should be ready to pounce, and Irad Ortiz is looking to grab a firm hold at the Eclipse Award, and every chance at a Graded stakes means he will do the impossible to boost his credentials before the end of the year.
Off the Turf: 14-16-15
9th race: 6 Furlongs. ‘MC 25000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Thefinalcrazydude (#4) – Of this very weak group, he is the fastest out of the gate. He ran just nine days ago, but I think he can clear this bunch and they will be pressed to get him. Remember that in these maiden claimers, there are no big late runs, so you must be forwardly placed to have a chance.
No Hitter (#6) – Had some problems in his return from a nine-month absence and the fact that Jose Ortiz takes the call in a maiden claimer last race tells you he thinks he can pull it off. He should be fitter for this race and has three works in preparation.
Unsullied (#9) – Returns to a much better distance for him, the problem is that he needs pace up front for his late run to be effective, and I really don’t think he will get much of that. Good breeze last week at Belmont and Davis stays up.