Saturday’s Aqueduct card features 10 starter stakes, all for horses that have started at different claiming prices in the past year. There are a lot of shippers and some jockeys who are not Aqueduct regulars, and a lot of value if you can find it. Let’s get to it:
Race 1: 3-4-2
#3 To the Flag ships up from Laurel having won her past 2 races there. She should sit right off the pace with Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle and trainer Joseph Taylor stouts good numbers with shippers and last race winners. #4 Hashtag Selfie seems to be the other speed in this field and may be able to grab second.
Race 2: 5-2-7
#5 Summer Punch opens at 7-5 ML and I will not be trying to beat the favorite here. This 5 year old mare won her last race at the $70k allowance level and is 8/9 ITM at this distance, 4 of them wins. #2 Bow Town Cat equaled today’s beyer par at 93 in her last race, Carmouche in the saddle. Maybe an opening Carmouche-Carmouche double?
Race 3: 5-4-6-2
#5 Big Thicket is a bit of a longshot here opening at 15-1 ML, he’s showing improving form and may be able to flash enough speed to press the pace and win. On his inside will be #4 Watch my Dust who should come from farther back to close, and on his outside will be #6 Hamptons Holiday who should improve 3rd off the layoff.
Race 4: 6-5-2
#6 Aristocratic is an early speed horse that should set the early pace and could wire this field as one of the only true speeds. #5 I’m an Ocala Dude comes into this race showing decent form and could post the best beyer of his career here. #2 Deep Sea posted a career best beyer of 100 3 back, is 2/2 at this distance and could be able to grab a piece after declining in form since the claim.
Race 5: 7-1-5-4
#7 Honey Graeme comes into this race first after the claim for trainer Linda Rice who is 44% with horses that go sprint-sprint-route. #1 Mia Bella Rosa should be the favorite at post time, looks primed to run a good race but I’m going to try and beat the favorite here.
Race 6: 4-5-2-10
#4 Two Putt is a stalker type horse who’s another Laurel Shipper, trainer Claudio Gonzalez is 28% with beaten favorites, and this gelding hopes to return to his career best race 3 back. #5 O Shea Can U See is another formidable longshot play at 15-1 ML, 5/5 ITM at this distance and throwing out his last race in the slop he shows good form.
Race 7: 1-5-6-7
#1 Wildcat Belle is one of two speeds in this field with the 9, and might be able to have enough speed to wire this field. #5 No Deal has been showing improving form ever since trying dirt, in his past 4 starts he has won 2 and closed within a length to the other 2, I’m expecting a nice trip here with Eric Cancel in the saddle.
Race 8: 1-2-7-9
#1 King Koa is one of two speeds on the inside, this Parx shipper won his last race and has been in good form as of late. #2 No Distortion is the other inside speed, the last 2 times this 6 year old gelding stretched out he finished 2nd and 1st by 7 lengths. I would expect him to be involved with the pace early on. #7 Daddy D T is a horse I have a good feeling about, won his last race for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.
Race 9: 7-5-8-3
This starter stakes has the best name on the card, the Stud Muffin, and is the longest race of the day going a mile and 3/8ths. The one horse that has experience at this distance is #7 Turco Bravo who is 1 for 3 going this long. The past 2 races he finished second to two different horses also in this race, but I like him the most here going long. #5 Colonel Juan has been in good form as of late, should sit in the middle of the pack and may be able to grab a piece here.
Race 10: 11-4-9-8
I really like #11 Bavaro in this spot, his past 4 beyers are over 100 and trump the rest of the field, he will be the leader early on and opens up the 3rd choice at 4-1 ML, try to get a good price. #4 looks ready to run a big race in his 3rd after the layoff, may be to get a beyer over 100 and should be ready to run first after the claim.