GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 505: 116-100-86, -19.3% ($1,010 wagered, $815.10 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.0%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.8%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1 ($18 wagered, zero returned)
TOTAL: 57: 11-12-12, -32.4% ROI ($114 wagered, $77.10 returned)
Race 1
5 – Surprise Visit – the debut was dreadful right here at the Big A back in November, with Irad trotting him wide around the turn and pretty much letting him jog home to a last place finish. While that wasn’t what Repole probably had in mind at first asking, there is reason to believe he’ll be sharper today second-out for Rudy (18% winners with maiden-seconds). He’ll be adding blinkers (28% first-timers) and an aggressive front-end rider in Manny Franco, so hope for a clean break and see what happens from there. 5-6-1
Race 2
7 – Heavy Roller – this gelding has been passed around in the claiming ranks but certainly holds his own on race-day. He didn’t really fire last-out and was scooped right back up by the Rob Atras barn, who does well with first-time claimers (22%) and trains sharply in routes. He draws outside in a field that could show a little early zip so I like his stalking running style here very much. His speed figures are more than enough to win here, just hope he returns to form and Junior can work a trip at a distance that he has won at before (3: 1-1-0). 7-6-1
Race 3
1 – First Deputy – five career starts, three seconds and a third… this is a maiden that is DUE and I think today is the day. He draws the rail in a field of seven, many of whom are first-time runners. Linda Rice is right in her wheelhouse with this type of dirt sprint and Dylan Davis keeps the mount. He showed a little zip last-out going the same six-panel distance and that could be the recipe today for a well-deserved graduation. 1-7-3
Race 4
7 – Hizaam – the Linda Rice runner is cutting to a sprint distance for the first time in his career, and it’s an angle I love (Rice hits at 21%) with a horse that has been very versatile routing. Lezcano has been white hot as of late and he gets a mount who should be able to sit off the speed and roll in the lane, especially from the catbird seat in the outside post. 7-4-6
Race 5
2 – Majestic Affair – this is a wide open race for a sizeable field with not too many wins in the recent running lines, and I’m landing on the Rudy Rodriguez gelding who is making a few class drops here today. He usually breaks well and gets himself into the race, so with an inside draw I think that can be an advantage. There is some speed in here, so the stalking trips he tried to carve out against tougher might just hit home against this bunch. By no means a big swing, and I’ll be spreading in the late pick 5 for sure. 2-1-10.
Race 6
9 – It’s a Risk – hasn’t been seen since the impressive maiden win in Delaware back in September, and this is exactly the type of layoff (28% 61-180 days) to pay attention to with Jason Servis sprinters. It wasn’t a great field that he beat down I-95, but if he finds the next level and breaks clean from the outside slot, he could try to run them off their feet in his first crack at allowance company. His name says it all, as this is a salty group, but the price will be juicy and I figure it’s worth a shot.
Race 7
4 – Singapore Trader – on figures alone this one looks to be a cut below some of the top runners in here, most notably the Rudy-entry. However, in a short field with four legitimate speed types I have to think a late runner will get the money. Lezcano gets the mount today and will try to get a nice stalking trip for a horse that has done very well at today’s one-mile distance (4: 2-1-0), so why not take a shot with the big price and top jock? 4-1-3
Race 8
2 – Pauseforthecause – I hate to be boring in the lone stake on the card, but this mare appears to tower over the field here. She’s never missed the trifecta in eight career starts over the Big A dirt, and she has done so with blistering speed that for the most part runs them off their feet. There are two other formidable speeds in this field and she’s never won at today’s distance so by no means is this a layup, but I do think she’ll get it done on the lead for Kiaran McLaughlin. 2-5-3
Race 9
2 – Nan’s Plan – got whooped in an allowance race on the grass back in early November but returns (thankfully) to the claiming ranks on the main surface today. Danny Gargan does very well with these turf-dirt moves (29%) and thrives with claimers (36%), so with the added plus of Lezcano in the irons I think she’s the play at a likely short price. 2-1-8.
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)