Welcome back to another Saturday at the Big A! We have nine races to dive into today, and the weather looks like we’ll get a fair track. Good luck to everyone playing!
Best Win Bet: Race 4: 8
Best Double: Race 4: 8 / 1,2,3
Best Exacta: Race 2: 5-1
Early Pick 5 ( Race #1) .50 – 1,3 / 1,2,5 / 2,6 / 2,8 / 1,2,3 = $36
Race 1
1 – Bourbon High – took a break in the spring after a very rough start to her career, and has come back nicely in the last three starts against similar. She should break and get inside position here, and I think her speed can carry her to the graduation.
3 – Thread the Needle – class of this field and the likely favorite, she will likely try to stalk the inside speed and pounce late. Cuts back from the last try in Maryland and no reason to toss here.
5 – Anne’s Song – 7 for 9 ITM at the Big A and always seems to fire. Could today be the day?
Race 2
5 – My Roxy Girl – 10 for 12 ITM locally with 4 wins, two of which at today’s distance. She has done some of her best work drawing outside in one-turn affairs, and sports a bullet work coming into this one. Has enough early speed to grab the lead, but could also sit a nice outside stalking trip. Price looks very right as well.
1 – Out of Orbit – draws inside and has enough early zip to take these right around as the likely favorite. At the short price I’m trying to beat as I think she might prefer longer, but can’t drop her further than the second spot based on how the race could shape up.
2 – Cartwheel – likes the distance and has excuses in the last two with a wet track proceeding the stumble at the break. Should be involved early.
Race 3
6 – Rockin Emmy – broke the maiden in her fourth career start and showed speed in doing so. The Linda Rice barn does well with winners next-out and hits on 25% of runners cutting back from routes to sprints.
2 – Infatuation – won the debut impressively over a fast track but faded late in the second try in the slop. The 2/5 work was sharp and there’s reason to believe a bounce-back is in store.
1 – Jazzy J – makes the 11th start of her career here, draws inside and hopes to avoid the wet track that did her in the last two tries.
Race 4
8 – Becca Takes Charge – this barn hits on an astonishing 33% of their second-time maidens, the works have been great and the jockey/trainer combo has hit early and often. Hope the outside draw in a field of eight works out better than it did in the debut, but that was at much shorter and Linda Rice connects on 31% of runners stretching out from sprint to route.
2 – Cheatham Hill – inside draw at one turn for Jason Servis, 5/2 ML on a horse that hasn’t shown much in the first two tries. Not losing the exacta because I tossed this trainer making something out of nothing, as he wins races at an alarming clip.
7 – Champayne – first-timer for the Nevin barn and it’s a great sign that the debut is coming at greater than a mile, as she hits on 33% in such scenarios. Works have been nice.
Race 5
1 – Imasuperstar – will be flying from the bell here and appears to be a wire-to-wire candidate with the possible lack of speed in the field. Has won three times at the distance, but will need to prove he can do it locally again. Watch the tote for a fair price here, as the last two wins came as heavy favoirite.
3 – Spartiatis – super-impressive in the last but the two works since have been rough and I’m concerned about the drop in class? Have to keep out of the winner’s circle at this price.
2 – Samadi Sky – 13 for 28 ITM lifetime, 4 for 9 ITM at today’s distance and sports a very nice work on 2/11. Could be a big price fighting to pick up the pieces.
Race 6
2 – Danny California – big class drop after a terrible effort over this very track in the last start, but finds softer company here and is worth another look if the price is right.
12 – Takeoff – will show speed from the outside in his first start for Carlos Martin, and will look to improve on the three straight show finishes at the Big A.
11 – Beach Access – another one taking a drop in class and the last four have been brutal. The hope is that the 4 for 7 ITM at today’s distance and the nice 2/11 work help him turn the tables.
Race 7
4 – Tap Master – found his spot last time out and should sit a nice stalking trip with the speed in here. Asmussen must be respected and it looks like the works leading into this start have him on his toes.
6 – Royal Asset – tried listed stakes company in the last start to no avail, but the run of form before that jump was impressive. Will certainly be looking to pop from the gate, but I worry there will be too much pressure up front from the 5.
5 – Monteleone – likely favorite in here will also be running from the jump, and his 6 for 6 ITM record locally will warrant the public money. This is a spot where I’ll try to toss the short money from the exacta, as I think the pace could compromise his chances.
Race 8
3 – Holiday Disguise – has asserted herself nicely in graded stakes company prior and has won three of four at Aqueduct. She should be able to sit a nice trip using her versatility. Linda Rice connects at 23% off this layoff and I’m loving the pace setup in this spot.
7 – Startwithsilver – another Linda Rice mare in this field, and one that could prove to be best if the long layoff doesn’t hold her back a bit. She hasn’t made a start since her stakes try at Monmouth last June, but she’s worked well and excels both locally and at today’s distance.
2 – Pauseforthecause – has the speed to grab the front-end here, but there could be tons of pressure from both sides making it tough to wire this field.
Race 9
6-8-9
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 2/9/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Total: 128: 30-24-12, -14.9% ROI ($256 wagered, $217.70 returned)
- Win Rate = 23.4%
- ITM Rate = 51.5%