GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 496: 116-96-85, -15.9% ($992 wagered, $815.10 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.4%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.9%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
TOTAL: 48: 11-8-11, -19.7% ROI ($96 wagered, $77.10 returned)
Race 1
7 – Doll – clearly the class in here for Jason Servis and should find herself on or near the early lead. She’s put two nice efforts in here at the Big A since November, keeps Lezcano in the irons and should win this race as a heavy favorite. Boring pick, but let’s get a single rolling to start the day. 7-1-3
Race 2
5 – Getoffmyback – he clearly likes Aqueduct, and if we toss the so-so slop effort at Parx last-out I think we’re sitting on a big race with all the speed signed on in this spot. Junior Alvarado keeps the mount and I hope we get a nice stalk and pounce trip today. 5-7-1
Race 3
9 – Breithorn – Bill Mott tried him in a route over a sloppy Belmont main, then gave it a go on the Aqueduct sod in November. He cuts back today and should get a fast track, and the works suggest he’s ready to give a good account of himself in his first career sprint attempt. There’s nothing about the trainer’s stats that suggest he’s a monster, but I like the outside draw and he gets the aggressive Carmouche in the irons. 9-8-7.
Race 4
4 – Dynamax Prime – distance isn’t an issue and this is a sharp barn, and I think the favorite (#5 Mr. Buff) could find some company on the early lead. If the pace gets quick enough, this is my choice to take the money in the lane. A big exacta and two horses in the pick 5. 4-5-1
Race 5
7 – Malibu Mischief – Falcone always has them firing first-off the claim (24% winners) and she appears to be the lone speed in a relatively modest group of fillies. Price will be short, but I think a clean break and a chance to walk them down the backstretch will find her in the winner’s circle again today. Only one published work since the last victory so that’s a mild concern, but looking back she never really blows them away in the morning anyway. 7-1-5
Race 6
6 – North Side – this $320k purchase caught a sloppy track and was jostled at the break in the November debut here at the Big A, so I think it’s very fair to give him another shot over fast-going today. Steve Asmussen connects on 22% of his maiden second-timers, and at a very healthy price I like him today despite facing a likely-heavy fav in #2 More Graytful. 6-2-8
Race 7
7 – Puttheglassdown – this is the best race on the card, and it is LOADED with speed. There are three or four legitimate burners in here, so naturally I’m looking for a horse that can sit off and attack late… which lead me to this Jeremiah Englehart colt. He’s landed in the triple in seven of ten career starts and always gives a good account of himself. He gets a nice jockey upgrade to Alvarado, and he’s got four exacta finishes in five starts at today’s distance as well… watch him rolling down the lane! 7-3-5
Race 8
4 – Praire Fire – tried allowance company last-out and fared OK considering the sloppy Aqueduct conditions, but will certainly appreciate the return to the fast going as she’s two for three in such scenarios. Linda Rice always spots these horses well, and I think she’ll get a patient ride from Lezcano to see if she can have enough gas in the lane. Price will be right. 4-2-3
Race 9
4 – Funderella – Sammy Camacho gets the mount on a filly who has just been unlucky with bad breaks or troubled trips, and in a field that’s lacking any clear fav I think this is the value play in a wide-open maiden race. In spots like this I want a horse who can be near the lead, as maidens don’t have tremendous success coming off the pace. She certainly has that, now we just need her to break clean and get the trip she’s been searching for. 4-7-1
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)