Race 1
2 – Punchline – tough debut back in December but has flashed some speed in the recent works and looks live today for the Jerkins barn. Gutierrez is having a nice breakout meet as well. Let’s start the day with a price huh?
1 – Vehement – three races, three tracks, three reasonably nice finishes considering the circumstances. Mott brings him to his fourth locale today, keeps Jose and draws inside with some speed to bring to the table. Wouldn’t shock me if this one airs, but I’ll fade a little and try to keep him in the exacta.
6 – Mo Gotcha – Englehart connects on 19% of his first-timers, and I like that he’s drawn outside in a short field to avoid getting banged around.
Race 2
1 – She’s Not Bluffing – ran on rather well in the debut considering the pace scenario, and cuts a half-panel here today for her second try. Works have been sharp and she gets a major jockey upgrade to Franco. Look out.
7 – Lookbothways – kicked on for second in the debut try and Carmouche will likely have her in a stalking position again here.
5 – Flashpackinbarbie – sharp works leading into the first attempt here, and Ortiz / Abreu are hitting at a 26%.
Race 3
7 – Show Prince – will look for better gate-luck than his last try in these same conditions a few weeks back, as he was squeezed and steadied at the jump. His two races before that were more indicative of his ability, going 5-wide to finish a close 4th two back and stalking and pouncing for the maiden win on 12/16. Please note that Franco was aboard that day and hops back on today.
5 – Stone Breaker – Johnny V gets the mount here and should be sitting on a very live horse. My only concern here is the speed to his inside pushing the pace a little, hence why I landed on my top pick to get the preferred setup. Must-use though.
2 – Oh My Papa – will get first-crack at the lead and I think he does just that down near the rail. Can he carry it all the way around against these? I don’t think so but I repsect enough to leave in exotics, both vertically and horizontally.
Race 4
9 – Go Big or Go Home – recent form has been solid compared to this field and he’s actually dropping in class a bit here. He’s 5 for 9 ITM at the Big A and has a win over the awlays-tricky 7F distance. With the outside draw I think he can find himself in a nice stalking position.
4 – Maimo – similar to the 9, this one is also dropping to $10k level in this spot and could have the speed required to create his own luck. Cutting back from the mile which makes sense considering the late fades he’s shown in his last three. Juarez gets the mount and will need to keep some in the tank for the drive home.
6 – Borsa Vento – likes the distance and the track, and comes off a win against less a few weeks back. Seems versatile enough to try and sit off the pace, but the win came wire to wire on 3/23. We’ll see.
Race 5
9 – Sycamore Lane – after two tough tries against stiffer competition in Florida, Mott brings her back to the Big A turf where he’s 3: 2-1-0. This feels like the right spot for a bounceback win, just need him to break clean and get into that preferred spot off the leaders.
8 – Shamcat – another one who likes this surface and can show some early speed in a field that could be lacking just that. 3/9 work was sharp and that was followed by a nice near-the-lead win against some of these on 3/22 in the slop. Price will be right on this one.
13 – Applicator – Cox brings this one east for the first time recently and boasts a nice work 3/10 in anticipation of the first start since November. Outside draw could be tough, but there is some turf success in his past and he definitely fits against these. For the purposes of rounding out the pick 5, this is definitely a spread race.
Race 6 – The Bay Shore (G3)
4 – Call Paul – some heavy hitters in this field but I’ll take Franco on the track he’s been dominating all winter with a horse that can win on the lead and coming a little off the pace. Versatility is key in this field, and we’re going to get a price to find out if this one has it.
2 – Mucho – second off the layoff and coming off a nice win in Florida – another one that can sit off a pace and pounce. The works have been fantastic and he’s probably the most-likely winner. I just like the price on my top pick and I’ll hope Jose can keep this one in the exacta.
1 – Much Better – ships in for Baffert and Espinoza will take the mount. Early speed and the likely leader on the turn for home, but will have two or three breathing down his neck.
Race 7 – The Excelsior (G3)
1 – Nicodemus – he’s put up two speed figures that fit very nicely in this field, and Linda Rice excels with runners stretching out. Won nicely in his second start off a long break, and has a nice closing kick if he can save ground inside and pounce on the turn. Should get a nice price here.
8 – Life’s a Parlay – very interesting play here if he can break clean and get to the front, as there isn’t a ton of speed to deal with at first glance. Won a very entertaining duel last out and comes into today off a string of bullet works. If he gets loose it’s curtains, but I’m counting on just enough pressure to set up my top play here.
3 – Monongahela – this doesn’t look like a race for deep closers, which is why I’m tossing the likely favorite (#6) from my top three. This one is 17/21 ITM lifetime and I like his chances to pick up the pieces.
Race 8 – The Gazelle (G2)
5 – Always Shopping – has a win at today’s distance in her only try and is 2 for 2 ITM over the Big A dirt. She’s come from off the pace to finish well in all her starts except the debut, which can be excused by the 5W trip. The Belmont training track has been busy the past few weeks, and this one has been sharp amongst the crowd. Manny Franco will have her running on the turn.
4 – Positive Spirit – we’ll give her an excuse in the last after the gate trouble, just didn’t want to run that day and luckily she got the hell out of Louisiana. Brisset has had her busy on the work-tab and she looks primed to return to recent form. Could be near the lead early, and picks up Jose Ortiz looking for her second win at Aqueduct in as many tries.
6 – Proud Emma – cross-country shipper has won three of five lifetime and can get herself close to the lead to have a chance. Outside draw lets Alvarado pick his spot a little bit, and the price will be fair.
Race 9 – The Carter (G1)
7 – Honor Up – well, here we go… one of the potentially dumbest or sharpest plays I’ve ever made. I think this horse loves the track and loves the distance even more. I think he’s coming off three straight wins, albeit against lesser company, with three different riders. I think Lezcano stays aboard for his biggest test to-date, and that his stalking style will set him up for a perfect pounce scenario with the fav getting jussssssst enough pressure up front. Send it in.
8 – World of Trouble – I think he gets beat today on the square, but not by much. Four straight triple-digit figures with two wins at today’s distance – will go off as the odds-on favorite and deservedly so, but he needs the lead to win and I think there are three others in here that can make it tough for him. Keeping in exacta of course.
4 – Identity Politics – 6 for 6 ITM lifetime with four of those being second-place finishes, but this one always fires and goes out for a top jockey-trainer combo.
Race 10 – The Wood Memorial (G2)
1 – Tax – draws inside and will look to get an early spot near the rail while the speed fights to his outside. He’s been on the wood twice in his short career and has won both times, and I think it will serve him nicely again here today. He’s coming out of a stakes win and a show finish in grade-3 company two starts back, so look for him to improve again today. 3/28 work was sharp and his versatility will win the day here.
4 – Haikal – he was absolutely blessed with the setup in the Gotham, but he still had to do some serious running in there and I think tossing him is a mistake given today’s pace scenario. There is speed in here, and if he can break clean and find a spot off the leaders early I think he’s going to be rolling late again.
5 – Final Jeopardy – Jason Servis with a lightly-raced three year old in a critical derby prep stretching out for the first time…. It’s like we’ve seen this before? Ah, yes… we did see it seven days ago at Gulfstream. Toss this man and this jockey at your own risk, because he’s going to fire and hit the board at minimum.
Race 11
2 – Vincento – has won 5 of his 13 career starts at today’s distance and does it with a very nice closing kick. Steps up in class again today and loses a top jock in Franco, but the price should be very generous and he’ll have his chance to run them down I think.
10 – Expert – loves the track and the distance and shows the ability to stalk and pounce here.
4 – Arthur’s Hope – will stretch-out and look to win again here, and the front-running style could be useful if he gets loose on the lead.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 3/23/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Week 16 (2/23) – 9: 1-1-1, -65% ROI ($18 wagered, $6.30 returned)
- Week 17 (3/2) – 8: 2-2-2, -13.8% ROI ($16 wagered, $13.80 returned)
- Week 18 (3/9) – 11: 2-3-2, -30.5% ($22 wagered, $15.30 returned)
- Week 19 (3/23) – 9: 5-1-1, 72.7% ($18 wagered, $31.10 returned)
- Total: 174: 42-33-18, -15% ROI ($348 wagered, $295.60 returned)
- Win Rate = 24.1%
ITM Rate = 53.4%