Aqueduct 11/8/18
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Race 1: 4-2-8
#4 ZIP IT JESS is the lone starter (who isn’t an AE) who has raced on the turf before. That was also her best performance ever and it earned her a speed figure that is the highest in the field. That day she finished 3rd by 2 3/4 lengths and ran on after the wire. She has kept her works consistent and looks like a solid bet here.
Race 2: 2-5-3
#2 CARRERA CAT has finished 2nd by less than 1 1/2 lengths in both her starts on the dirt. Ravij jumps back up today after her last effort at Belmont which was a very solid one. Her last work was a bullet and she looks like the best here.
Race 3: 5-3-1
#5 SIERRA LEONA looks like an interesting pick here at 6/1 ML and could possibly drift up by post time. Let’s throw out that last race, the Gulfstream shipper then has a nice collection of races where she has shown at a higher level. She’s ITM in all other tries at this distance and has a win at the trip and her highest speed figure at this distance. Let’s take a shot here against a beatable favorite in my opinion.
Race 4: 9-7-2
#9 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK has one race on turf and he finished 2nd by a half length. Joel Rosario coming off that Breeders Cup Classic win comes back to ride. The switch back to turf makes me think his gelding will be the winner.
Race 5: 7-2-3
#7 MALIBU MISCHIEF is coming out of a Grade 3 where she was clearly overmatched. Today that class relief will be huge for her, she also switches back to the surface she has won at convincingly. Her last two works have been bullets, this race is very competitive however and a case can be made for many.
Race 6: 9-10-1
#9 ALIEN SEASON is coming off a strong race at Kentucky Downs finishing 3rd by a half length and a victory prior to that. We get a rider upgrade in JohnnyV today. That last work was an absolute bullet and we haven’t seen a finish more than 3 lengths off this year.
Race 7: 9-6-1/1A
#9 TRUSTWORTHY in his last 4 races has finished 2nd or better. Winning twice up at the Spa and finishing 2nd twice at Belmont at this level. Luis jumps back up today and this gelding recent form makes me very confident.
Race 8: 4-5-3
#4 NOT IN CHARGE is coming out of an ungraded stake over at Laurel. Today that cut back in distance and class will be a nice welcomed addition for the gelding. The race before last he did win however very convincingly at a distance most of the others hadn’t even ran. A bullet in his last work and two very solid ones prior to that makes this 6/1 ML shot look very appealing.
Race 9: 1-10-8
#1 OUR LAST BUCK has one race and ran 3rd back during the Belmont spring meet. The works since then have been very solid and every other horse in this stinker of a finale is too inconsistent, so let’s go with the older lightly raced gelding.