Aqueduct Monday December 30th Daily Gallop Write Up
Checking Google Weather mid 40’s light showers all through the day huge wind around 16 mph
Race 1 Maiden State Bred 40,000 Maiden Claiming 7F 3yo and up
3 Wild Boar 6-5 Favorite, I don’t like giving out a horse like this but you can’t pick the prices only the good horses right? Coming off the turf last time out, was first time in for a tag. I feel like he runs better on the dirt, and now 1st maiden claiming on dirt I think the 6-5 favorite might be tough. Lastly gets blinkers on might get him to focus in more.
1 Disciplanarian 4-1 The only two times he was in for a claiming tag he ran 2nd looking at the comment line he has always found trouble in all 5 starts with a clean trip I think he could possibly beat the 3 just the 3 seems like he will be in front of the 1 and that is why I like the 3 on top.
6 Golconda 15-1 hasn’t been seen since Saratoga where he ran 7th beat by 21 lengths at 9-2. 7 workouts on tab might have just given him a rest for winter NY racing, not good enough for the spring summer and fall racing. 10 pounds off with a jockey I haven’t seen before in Luis Cardenas but might fight for 3rd with a 13% trainer in Gyamati.
Selections 3-1-6
Bets $1 exacta 1,3-1,2,3,6($6)
Race 2 Claiming Non-Winners of 2 Lifetime For 50,000 Going 1 Mile For 2 year olds
1 Blues City 3-1 seems to run an average race I like the comment line “lumber home” which is what the running line looks like with the 1:13 for 6 furlongs he ran. 2nd time blinkers on seemed to get him to get out faster but not lead fast. And the “lumber home” makes me think he can get the mile with not much problem that might just be me but the time shows the horse can run for longer time and a good stamina build.
5 King of American 8-1 closed late with an amazing rush at 8-1 to break the maiden for 30,000. The only one with a maiden win at a mile on a premiere track, distance won’t be a question here only a question if good enough and that is my concern. I don’t think he is better than the 1 but Keivan Serrano can sneak horses into the money.
3 Tiz Epic 4-1 the other Linda Rice runner 1st off the 30,000 dollar claim from October 12th maiden win at .30 cents to the dollar, in a 4 horse field. That race was impressive for what it was in a wire to wire victory. This horse is just not my choice between the 1 and the 3 but, wouldn’t be shocked by a victory here.
Selections 1-5-3
Bets $2 win place 1($4)
Race 3 Maiden Special Weight Going 1 Mile For 3 yo and up
7 One Eyed Jack 6-5 I watched the workout he had at Palm Beach Downs with a horse also owned by this same ownership on December 15th named Untap. Untap has had 3 prior starts with 2 12 places and an 8th place apparently now too in the Pletcher barn. He looked green as could be but right next to him One Eyed Jack calm cool no real asking from the exercise girl never let the horse pass by went to me in 49.64 and went to 5f in 1:01.20 good solid workout. Why from Florida to New York????? My only question is WHY?? Ran 2 promising 2nd and 3rd place efforts in the Chad Brown barn. Also just seen blinkers on first time and watched that work wow that work was impressive after watching that I expect him to close with a late fury!
4 Fast Master 5-1 this 275,000 dollar purchase has no blood line at all and what I mean is why would you spend that much on a horse with a 3,500 dollar sire? Well, Kaleem Shah did and gave this horse to Graham Motion ran 2 respectable races at Laurel was bet both times. Hasn’t raced in 9 months Motion can get them ready first time off a long lay off at 302 starts and 19% win 50% on the board just needs to improve here.
5 High Amplitude is my selection at 9-5 for 3rd with Chad Brown hasn’t ran since Gulfstream and ran 2 decent races, both better than the 4.I see since this horse is at NY winter vs being at Gulfstream that is a small negative. Picking up Manny Franco and first time gelding should help him but again needs to improve just a bit.
2 High Amplitude 12-1 I would hate myself not to talk about this horse being a 410,000 dollar purchase son of Arch and Medaglia d’Oro mare I think a must use in the exotics
Selections 7-4-5
Bets $1 exacta box 2,7 4,7 5,7($6)
Race 4 Claiming 8,000 for F&M 3 yo and Up Going 1 Mile
3 Judgement Free 12-1 this to me is a dumb race for bad horses, there for I will pick a bad horse that has had some results at a price. Anytime this horse has been in for a claiming tag since June has been no worse than 4th with a record of 6-3-0-2-1 and going to stretch back out here.
7 Stay Fond 4-5 this horse makes sense drops in after a win from 10,000 to 8,000, great trainer in Linda Rice, good B+ jockey in Manuel Franco, was .60 cents to the dollar last time. It all makes sense that’s why in this spot I can’t bet this horse they do not write 8,000 claiming races for good horses in NY they do that at Turfway haha. For me writing on here it would be a disservice to tell you reader to go bet this horse and key it on top, because don’t if the horse wins your not making any money at 1-9 and the exacta isn’t good enough either it’s between 3 horses for 2nd maybe and still nothing there.
6 Theodosia 5-1 again another obvious horse dropping in from 16,000n/l 3 where she won where they went 1 mile in 22:4, 46.0 good that’s a fast time you with me, here’s where it gets ugly 1:12.1 okay not bad finished in 1:40.1 eww. Has been bet almost every race got beat by 9 to the 7 something is obviously wrong but 5-1 is better than 4-5 in this case.
Selections 3-7-6
Bets $2 win $6 show 3($8)
Race 5 Claiming State Bred 25,000 For 3 yo and Up Going 6 and ½ F
10 Mo Diddley 4-1 getting a rocket break every time I expect this horse to be rolling early throwing out the turf effort last time 2nd off the claim is 19% out of 31 starts and back in for the tag where he belongs. Just I like the thought of too knowing where the 10 is going to be out at and sometimes for me as a gambler knowing if my horse is going to the lead or coming from way out of it gives me more confidence to bet that horse vs a horse that on paper is better but I don’t know what trip they are getting.
2 Bourbon Mission 6-1 if they go fast up from which the race has the potential to do that with the 4,6,8,9,10 being speed type I expect the 2 to be flying late. That reason is why I am betting the 2 the 10 is the more likely horse. I think is going to have 2 challenges from 2 different horses mainly 9 then 8 and then the 2 storming late could hold off the first 2 horses, but hopefully not the last.
8 Manifest Destiny just because the cut back and drop in class he hasn’t ran a good race in 3 starts and if you discount the 3rd and 4th start back hasn’t ran a good race since April but maybe the drop from allowance state bred to claiming state bred could be enough to fix him.
6 Summer Bourbon 7-2 (putting myself in the corner here) this horse won for 12,500 and earned a 91 speed figure out of nowhere after blinkers first time this horse is a fluke and I would honestly be shocked if he hit the board. Sorry Daily Gallop I could have just said nothing at all but I talk about the good and bad lol!
Selections 10-2-6
Bets $2 wp 2($4)
Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming 62,500 For F&M 3 yo & up Going 6 And ½F
3 Alisio 1-1 this horse is the best horse on paper has the best breeding and backing with Godolphin and McLaughlin just came off a win seems to gain her confidence because she is working better by a little bit. And they know that she like 6 and a half furlongs unlike the 2nd choice. Would love for her to sit 4th behind the 1,2, and 5.
1 Honey I’m Good 4-1 she runs better speed figures on dirt but more class on the turf, what do I do? Well I trust Steve Asmussen to keep this horse in NY when he could have gone to Sam Houston or Fair Grounds where they have grass racing but if he believes she can run on the dirt I trust his assistant. She has a ton of speed and Junior should use that to his advantage today.
2 Avalina 2-1 hasn’t ran since the grade 3 Delaware Oaks where she ran 5th by 15, has won a stakes race at Parx for 75,000 Danny Gargan has done amazing with this 15,000 dollar sales purchase. Just seems like a prep race for something in NY later, because of the layoff and cut back. This horse is a diamond in the rough and something I treat this horse with no respect for it but she can run.
Selections 3-1-2
Bets $1 exacta box 1,3 2,3($4)
Race 7 State Bred Allowance For 3yo & Up Going 6F
5 Dugout 5-1 you want a horse in good form and always well-placed look at Dugout. 9 starts with 6 wins and 2 seconds only off the board was going 1 mile. Won last time for a 250,000 dollar stakes race barely getting up to win against Manny Wah who ran 3rd to Omaha Beach on Saturday in the Grade 1 Malibu. Give me 5-1 on this horse every day of the week even on a special Monday!
4 Eye Luv Lulu 7-2 has the class and the speed with Jason Servis training him and has blistering times. Just has a tendency to quit a little bit, maybe that could be getting out classed or going to fast or what have you but needs to be on the best game to win the race.
1 Honor Up 9-5 speaking of fitness the 1 hasn’t been out since May and has been running against much, much, much tougher. For example, the grade 1 Carter Handicap and ran 3rd against World of Trouble. Again, just I don’t like this horse having to catch a horse off a shortening up and a prep race here where he needs to be ‘A’ game.
Selections 5-4-1
Bets $3 win and place 5($6) seeing shipping from Hawthorne just in case scratch $3 win and place 4($6)
Race 8 Maiden Claiming State Bred 40,000 For Fillies 2 yo Going 7F
10 Cazilda Fortytales 5-1 after flashing speed last time out and barely getting beat they take Declan Carroll off. Bad move in my opinion but it still might work with Dylan Davis he just needs to be aggro when breaking from the gate and pray she doesn’t quit (heads up she will quit just a matter of when not if). I hope for a big enough lead that she holds on, maybe.
9 Broadway Angel 5-1 I would like to play a game, first time starter breaks and is in 10th, no comment line of breaking slow did she break slow? I am going to say yes without looking up the replay I think Pletcher will have this horse more prepared putting a more aggressive gate jockey in Jose Lezcano on makes me think won’t be 10th out of the gate, maybe 9th but not 10th (that’s a joke haha)! Came running to get 2nd last time which has me intrigued and worried because I am going to the 10.
11 Magnetique 3-1 its Todd Pletcher again, dropping in class for the first time with Madaket Stable owning a piece is always a good sign. Had only 1 good race and ran a 2nd 3 races ago maybe the drop is in a confidence boost hoping they don’t claim for 40,000 or just want to get rid of the horse and get another one. The 9 can improve the 11 can’t but the 11 can have the class edge and just be better than the 9.
Selections 10-9-11
Bets $2 win and place 10($4)
Total a very affordable $42 not looking to make thousands not looking to lose hundreds betting big just looking to get a few bets at a reasonable price. I truly hope this helps, and thanks for The Daily Gallop for letting me write this. If you have any questions or comments write me on twitter @dennis_trusty. Good or bad think I made a bad pick the 6 horse win that race I said I would be shocked seeing that horse hit the board win by 25 lengths? Hit me up don’t let me off the hook haha. Good luck and again thanks to The Daily Gallop appreciate them letting me do this