1/4- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
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Top Pick Results 2019: 0-0-0-0
Top Pick Results overall: 42-10-11-7
Race 1- 2,5,3
She’ll Do is going out for Todd Pletcher for the first time, and I know he has been cold this year, but he still finishing in the money currently at roughly 70 percent of the time. She gets a jockey upgrade today to Manny Franco who has been on fire so far at Aqueduct, and I love the move stretching her out to 1 mile with her pedigree. She will likely be one of the top 3 choices when they enter the gate, but anything around 2-1 is a fair price on her in my opinion.
Paynterbynumbers was my top choice back on November 30th where she finished well but got cut off late and had to settle for 3rd. I am going to include her in everything but putting her 2nd because George Weaver has been cold this meet with only 1 winner, and Cancel has been very streaky this meet too. She is coming over a pair of very sharp works though that in my opinion make her a must use, but at a likely short price I will try and beat her with the win.
Fancy That is coming back off 3 month layoff for McLaughlin and Godolphin. She also adds Maragh in the irons today who is 23% win at Aqueduct when riding for McLaughlin. She will need to improve off her debut form to win here, and I think she does want longer, but should still be going good late. Look for her coming from off the pace.
Race 2- 6,1,2
Jake Rocks I am hoping can go gate to wire here. He set the pace last time out against Mihos who is set to run in tomorrow’s Mucho Macho Man stakes at Gulfstream Park. There does not appear to be a stakes caliber horse in this bunch so if he breaks well he should be able to clear the field. He is also coming off a solid work of :36 for 3f and gets a red hot Junior Alvarado in the irons.
Classic Romeo did no running in his debut, but ran against Family Biz who just finished 3rd to Mind Control in the Jerome on New Year’s Day. Just like Jake Rocks, I don’t see a stakes winner in this bunch, so this should be a softer spot for him. I am not a huge fan of the rail, but sired by Bodemeister, this one should show more early speed this time out and a TAP horse morning lined at 8-1 is great value. His horses are finishing in the money at too high of a rate to leave off exotic tickets.
Spun to Run ran huge last time out at 35-1 and improved dramatically from his first 2 career starts. He is morning lined at 8-5 today which is much different from his near 36-1 he was last time out and I am not sold on him running back to or improving off that effort. If he does though he should be an easy winner here, but with Reyes in the Irons and trainer Guerrero still looking for a win this meet, I will only use him defensively.
Race 4- 5,1,3
Free Coffee finished 2nd last time out to Brass Ring who demolished the field by 17+ lengths. Today Free Coffee adds blinkers and gets Lasix which should help her improve. I am also a fan of Gutierrez getting back in the irons for her. She should be a fair price against this field, but fits in my opinion so taking a shot with her on top today.
Regal Retort took money in her debut but finished 3rd after breaking from the outside post. Today she draws the rail which I am not a fan of for her 2nd start, but with Franco riding she is hard to rule out. Her works coming into this one have not been great which is why I am putting her 2nd today, but I think she is a must use in multi race tickets.
Miss Allison is shipping in for trainer Wayne Potts who is 30% this year with 1st off the claim. This is a big step up in class for her, but she is sired by Tiznow so this 7f distance should not be a problem.
Race 5 – 3
Turco Bravo (Chi) is a class above the rest of this field. The only negative about him today is that he is 0-7 in his career at Aqueduct, but he has never faced a weaker field than this one. In my opinion he is an easy single to end your Pick 4’s and 5’s with. I doubt we see the 4-5 morning line odds on him, I am thinking more like 2-5 by post time.
Race 6- 3,6,5
Outplay is taking a big drop in class and is going out for the first time for trainer Rudy Rodriguez who is one of the best claiming trainers in the game. He also gets Manny Franco in the irons and at Aqueduct, Manny and Rudy in 2018-2019 are 31%. Outlook has won at this distance and over this track before, so I am taking a shot that the change in trainer and class drop put him back in the winners’ circle.
If Outlook and Its All Relevant get into a speed duel, Shalako should get a perfect set up. Yes he has never won at the distance or at Aqueduct, but he is carrying almost 7 pounds less then the rest of the field because Gutierrez is in the irons, and is coming off a 3rd place finish in a stake race last time out.
Its All Relevant is going to be the favorite and rightfully so. He has 3 wins in 6 starts at this distance and is coming off an impressive 5 length in here at this distance back on December 15th. If no one runs with him early he will be tough to beat. Is a must use on all multi tickets, but for the purpose of value, I went elsewhere for the win.
Race 7- 6,5,7
Singapore Trader has been my top pick in his last 2 starts here at Aqueduct and has not disappointed. He is stretching out today to 1-1/8th where he did finish 3rd in the Albany Stakes back in August at Saratoga. He gets Manny Franco in the irons today who is a solid 28 % when teaming with Pletcher in the last year.
Gio d’ Oro always runs honest and has never missed the money in 8 career starts for Brad Cox. Today he gets Cancel in the irons today and while he will be one of the top few betting choices, I question if he wants this distance which is why I put him 2nd. He did dominate a field at 1-1/6th in the slop back in May, but this is a much tougher field.
Storm Prophet goes out for Linda Rice with Junior Alvarado in the irons who when teamed up have been a hot 31% at Aqueduct in the past year. That alone makes him tough to rule out here. He is camera shy with only 3 wins in 23 career starts, but does have 12 career finishes of 2nd or 3rd which makes him a solid play for exotic wagers.
Potential Pick 5 Wagers:
Early Pick 5: 2,3/1,2,6/2-7/1,3,5/3
$0.50 wager =$54.00
Nyra Bets Pick 5:1,3,5/3/3,5,6/5,6,7/3,5,8
$0.50 wager =$40.50
*Other wagers will be posted on Twitter*