Happy Championship Sunday. Many will have their mind of football today, but my mind will be on a few races at Aqueduct. It will also be on my Father-In-Law who is getting ready for quadruple bypass surgery. Let’s try to get a few winners home for him since he won’t be going to his favorite place for at least a month. That being said, I have a quick write up for everyone. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends. I’ll be traveling to Atlantic City for the week but feel free to say hi.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 8-4-5
In a 30k MCL going a mile and an eighth, I want someone who should be forwardly placed. #8 Lone Pioneer should be close and I expect an improvement off the “ultimate equipment change”. Former Diodoro assistant, Rob Atras has done very well with his limited starters and attracts Alvarado for the mount. ML favorite #4 Classic Romeo looks like a live contender on the big drop / Jockey upgrade angle. Pletcher is hitting at a ridiculous 49% taking horses from the MSW to MCL class. #5 Midnight Entry failed last time out at 2/5 and should be forwardly placed.
Race 2- 1-7-2
This is a spread race for me as I am not thrilled by the heavy morning line favorite. Let’s try to get #1 Elegant Jem home. The horse clearly likes a wet track and I love horses cutting back from the 1 1/8 distance to the one turn mile. She is projected to be alone on the lead and might get brave. #7 Beyond Discreet is another cutting back from the mile and eighth distance and shows a liking to the wet track. She gets a huge upgrade in jock to Manny Franco and has the perfect post for her stalking tactics. #2 Pretty Enuff is your likely heavy favorite but has found a way to lose recently. She is still very dangerous as shippers have been stealing checks from the NY breds of late.
Race 3- 7-9-1
This is another spread race for me as the chalks do not impress me one bit. #4- D’s Sis has been a speed and fade horse her whole career and attracts Luzzi. #5- Fournineteen is a 3yo firster for Pletcher. It is usually wise to stay away from these types. #7- Bel Cuore should be forwardly placed and Michelle Nevin has good numbers with these types. Should be in the perfect stalking position and the slight cutback should make the difference. #9 Irish Banker is an interesting longshot play. Her speed number fit here, the cutback helps, the drop in class helps, and might have the right type of pace scenario to close into. Getting Dylan Davis helps as well. #1- Stirred Not Shakin is another price that should not be ignored. She deserves another chance after a rough start first time out and gets the blinks first time.
Race 4- 2-1-7
#2 Crea’s Bklyn Law looks like my pick 5 single here. He has run the fastest races and loves the off-going. He needs some speed up front and on paper, he should get it unless there are scratches. #1- Devine Entry is a huge Jail Move for Chris Englehart. Granted, this is not a strong trainer change and Englehart is not great with the Jail move, but this is a huge hike up off a loss. That is usually a good sign. #7- Mad Munnys will be running his 4th different distance and surface in 4 races and should be pushing the main speed.
Race 5- 3-8-6
Really tough Maiden race here. I will side with #3 Papa Jim off the MCL loss to MSW angle. He has the fastest speed figure despite going 7w last time out in the slop. #8 Judge Stanton will probably be an underlay due to the name but I love horses that go for 24x the sire fee. #6 The Big Lebanese can improve off his near miss last time out despite breaking from the outside post. The easier post might be the difference.
Race 6- 6-7-5
#6- Saratoga Style is the only horse in the race to put her nose in front of everyone else; yet I think the combo of Hernandez and Contessa gets it done here at a price (never thought I’d say that). She should like the off-going but needs speed to develop her late kick. Worth the 5-1 we will get. #7- Mrs. Crews is the one to beat. Please see my comments about Atras above. My only concern is if this one wants an off track. #5- Infatuation can improve off her maiden win two months ago and should be in a nice stalking spot.
Race 7- 5-7-3
Race 8- 9-8-1