Top Pick Results 2019: 54-22-10-7
2019 Overall: +$15.00
Top Pick Results overall: 95-32-22-14
Race 1: 2,5,3
Stole E is making his 2nd career dirt start today and his dirt debut was a solid effort even though he fell short. If he repeats that effort today, he will be tough to beat. He also gets Junior back in the irons today which is a positive sign.
Incidentally is the only Triple Crown nominee in this field and even though he is a first time starter, he does have some solid works leading into his debut. Pedigree suggests that he wants to go longer so don’t be shocked if he is behind the pace and comes late. His Dam has also produced multiple winners in the past which for those who bet pedigree should love here. I think he is a must use as well because of Manny being in the irons on both exotics and multi’s.
Powerfully Built is owned and was bred by Red Oak Stables in Florida and this colt has a sprinters pedigree sired by Big Drama. Has a few fast works which suggest he will be sent early to the lead. If you do not like any of the top few morning line horses, this I think is your horse. Should be a price and if he gets out by himself could wire first time out.
Race 2: 3,4,2
I picked Crimson Frost last time and I am back on her today. She made up a ton of ground last time out against Jump Ruler who is also in today’s race, but there is much more speed in here today where I don’t think any horse will get loose on the early lead. If she can move late like she did in her last race she will be right there again.
Jump Ruler went gate to wire last time out and if she gets loose on the lead I won’t be surprised if she does it again. She is the morning line favorite and with the amount of other early speed in here I am not keen on these 7/5 ML odds on her so I am trying to beat her. Yes she has been able to closely stalk a pace in the past and win which is possible today, but if she does that I still think Crimson Frost will be moving better late which is why I am putting her 2nd.
Playingwiththeboys is dropping out of Stakes company and her last race at this level was a win. She also has run very well in the past at this distance and is the lightweight today. I think she will need to improve or hope the others don’t bring their A race to win here, but I won’t be shocked if she is still a threat when turning for home.
Race 4: 7,2
Major Flirt goes out for TAP with Franco in the irons which is a great combo. Worries me that they paid 150K for this colt and now he is in for a 50K tag in his debut, but works have been solid so using this one on top.
Never Felt Better ran great in his debut after taking money and should run solid here. I like that Reylu gets the mount here and will use this one on my tickets.
Race 5: 5,3
Leah’s Dream is lone speed in here and if she breaks well should have no issues going gate to wire here.
Letmetakethiscall is the only other logical horse I see here besides Leah’s Dream. She is going to sit off the pace, but I think will need a speed duel to win, but could get that if Leah’s Dream breaks poorly.
Race 7: 7,4,2
Honey Graeme is making her 2nd start of the year and is getting Kendrick in the Iron’s. Kendrick is excellent on front end speed horses so taking a shot here.
Parlapiano is going out 1st off the claim for Rudy who is 33% 1st off the claim. Will need to improve to win but does get Manny in the irons and at ML 6-1 is worth including in my opinion.
Our Girl Abby is very consistent, and even though I don’t have her on top today I will include her. Always dangerous at this distance with a career record of 11-4-4-1.
Race 8: 4,5,1
This is a very tough race and I cannot take lower then 2-1 on anyone here so I landed on Syndergaard. He is cutting back today and has been right there in his last 2 starts here. Also gets Johnny V in the irons today which is a huge upgrade.
Bavaro is coming off 3 huge races and Junior /Linda Rice combo has been unreal this meet. This one should be the controlling pace and at 4-1 is worth the risk.
Life in Shambles is cutting back to 6f where he is 20-5-3-2 in his career. Morning line 6-1 and comes from off the pace. Should get a very solid trip from the rail and will make 1 big move late.