Top Pick Results 2019: 75-30-14-11
2019 Overall: +$14.00
Top Pick Results overall: 116-40-26-13
Race 1: 6,4,5
Mo Moxie has bene right there in all 3 of her career starts at this distance. Today she goes out for McLaughlin for the first time and gets the outside post which should benefit her stalking the pace style.
South of the Shore goes out for Chad Brown and we have not seen her in over a year. Her 3 career races she finished 2nd to all eventual stakes winners, but being off for 13 months is tough to play on what should be a short price because of the connections. I wouldn’t toss her from your multi’s but I would try to beat her if you’re playing the race straight up.
I will be shocked if We Are Family wins here today, but should provide solid odds for underneath value in exotic wagers. She has finished in the money in 3 of 5 lifetime starts.
Race 2: 4,3,1
Shimmering Moon beat similar last time out including Leah’s Dream and I think she will get a similar set up again today. Last time out I had Leah’s Dream on top, but there is more speed in here today and the track does not look like it will be wet so landed on the horse who beat her last time out.
Huge fan of Leah’s Dream, but she is a wet track specialist with 7 of her 8 career wins coming over a wet track. I thought last time she could do it as there was no other speed, but she still missed. Today there is more speed and while I think she is the best of the speed, I do think she gets caught late over a dry track.
Pinchbeck is dropping a bit in class today and goes out for McLaughin who has very good numbers in spots like this. She won with Junior in the irons last time out at this distance and today gets him back which is a positive sign. This is one you may want to include on your tickets if you are skeptical on the top few betting choices.
Race 3:
This race can go any way and if you are using this race in your early Pick 4’s and 5’s I recommend using All here. A field of lifetime maidens, all but one has over 10 career starts. I would only use this race for multi waging and that is it.
Race 4: 2,8,1
Two Hot Betty nearly won against similar last time out and today should get a similar set up with the speed to her inside. She also gets Junior back in the irons who was on her 2 back in her win here on 12/14/2018.
Malarkey is dropping a bit in class today and that should be enough here to make her competitive. I am not a huge fan of her outside post, but she does get Manny who seems to finish in the money every race here so hard to toss this one.
Sped Khaleesi does have speed and if she is allowed to be alone up front is a threat to wire the field. She does get the rail today and her last race with the rail she finished 4th against similar. I would use her underneath of exotics here.
Race 5: 2,5,3
Floss Dancer is dropping out of stakes company where she didn’t get much play on the board, but she never really had a chance after stumbling bad at the start. She is dropping from stakes to claiming company which always concerns me, but she was running for tags before this race so I am giving her a shot here. She also has run farther then this in the past and has run well while the rest of the field does not seem like they want to go 7f.
Gentle Annie is always just there in races. Never does anything spectacular but has finished in the money twice at this distance and I would not doubt a money finish against this field today.
Amanda Lane was my pick last time out at 6f and she flattened out finishing 3rd. Today I don’t think the added distance does her any favors, but I think she is better than most in here so I would use her underneath for exotics at the least.
Race 6: 2,3,9
Dr Bert is cutting back today in distance and keeps Kendrick in the irons which is a great sign. He showed early speed last time going longer, and today with the shorter distance is a threat to go gate to wire against this field.
Never Felt Better was the favorite last time out in a race where I had the winner Major Flirt. He is another one with early speed and is dropping a bit in class. He is on the inside though and I am not a huge fan of the inside speed when the horse directly on their outside also has speed. But this one is too dangerous to leave off tickets.
Flat Rate is going out for Rudy and was claimed off TAP last time out. Adding blinkers and getting a jockey upgrade to Manny Franco is a good sign. Only issue I have is the post, but if the pace is hot up front I think he comes late.
Race 7: 2,3,7
Analyze the Odds is 2 for 2 lifetime at this distance and seems to a class better then most of these on paper. His last 3 efforts are more than enough to be a major player in this one and with Junior riding today for Linda Rice I will take a shot with this one as my top pick here.
Paper Shot has run well in all 3 starts in 2019, but has never run well at this distance and in my opinion wants to go longer. He does get a jockey upgrade to Manny Franco who last rode her against much tougher back at Saratoga in July. He has past races that make him a likely winner here but taking a small stand against on top. Will use in Multi’s though.
Blue Belt runs tough over this Aqueduct track finishing in the money 6 of 9 career races and has a win at this distance. She has early speed which makes her dangerous at Aqueduct, but I do think she gets caught, but I won’t be shocked if she holds on for a piece.
Race 8: 4,1,6
Avalina demolished the field last time in her debut and today gets to face another small field. She also gets Kendrick in the irons who is one of the top front end riding jockeys in my opinion. If she breaks clean the rest may be running for 2nd place.
Don’t Rush goes out for TAP and she won her debut last month at Gulfstream and is shipping in here today. She did have Jose Ortiz on her that day and the Ortiz brothers are having sensational meets in Florida so I am a bit skeptical of the jockey change to Maragh. She also showed speed in her debut and breaking from the rail today she will need it.
Dovey Lovey is dropping out of stakes company and the class relief might be all this one needs. After 2 straight stakes starts she is dropping and her last race against similar she finished 2nd by 1 length. There is enough speed in here that she should get a solid stalking trip if she is good enough. I also like that Junior keeps the mount despite the drop in class.
Race 9: 5
If I had to pick a horse this race to play to win I would take a shot with Jack Bo. First off the claim for Brad Cox and gets Kendrick in the irons after showing tactical speed in his first 2 starts. To end multi race wagers here I would use most if not all though as each of these horses has shown to be inconsistent in their careers and it will be tough to play a short-priced horse out of this bunch in my opinion.