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Top Pick Results 2019: 68-26-14-9
2019 Overall: +$6.00
Top Pick Results overall: 109-36-26-16
Race 1: 4,3,2
Malibu Action is going out first off the claim for Rob Atras who has been having a phenomenal meet. He also gets a jockey upgrade to Manny Franco today which is a positive sign.
Nolinski has been a gate to wire winner in his past 2 races here at Aqueduct and gets Cancel in the irons once again today. He is not lone speed here and is stepping up in class, but speed has been solid on this track.
Spartiatis goes out for Jason Servis for the first time who is a sizzling 44% first off the claim. I am not a huge fan of this one as he was claimed off of Rudy who is another excellent claiming trainer, so hard to imagine he can improve enough here, especially at a short price. I would include on multi’s though because of Jason Servis alone.
Race 2: 3,5,1
Bye Bye Man is dropping out of the race at Gulfstream back that produced Florida Derby contender Hidden Scroll. Not really sure what to make of this drop from MSW to MCL though as the connection paid $285K back in 2017 for him. He did have a poor start last time, and now this time against weaker can improve and Pletcher is very good with class drops like this.
Pickle Rick is dropping for Brad Cox and after a promising race 2nd time out, had no excuses in a similar set up last time out and just wasn’t good enough. Dropping in class today he should be tough, but at morning line odds of 7/5 I will try and beat the chalk here.
Impunity is adding Manny Frano in the irons today and is cutting back in distance which is a positive for his pedigree. Abreu has only had 2 starters so far this meet, and both of them have won which is a positive sign as well. His 2 races at this level were a 2nd and a 3rd, so should be a legit contender here and should provide decent value.
Race 3: 6
Ironclad lays over this field even with the jockey change to Cancel and being claimed off Gargan last time out. His last 3 efforts are all good enough to beat this field today and they were all against tougher fields. Hard to see this one running poorly, but will be a very short price.
Race 4: 4,3,5
Big Bennys Tribute is a Curlin sired first time starter for Rudy and while at first glance nothing about this horse really fits here, I am very skeptical about the top few betting choices after their last efforts so taking a shot with a firster.
Xanthique ran well first time out finishing 2nd against similar. Today will need to improve to win, but trainer Robert Rlbaudo has not won this meet with a maiden 2nd time out.
Forbidden Frolic goes out first time for Linda Rice and while has a great pedigree for this distance, Verrazano’s don’t always run well first time out and may need a race. Using this one underneath.
Race 5: 4
Eagle Pass did not have a very good trip last time out but still put up a speed figure that makes him tough to beat here today. With the jockey change to Manny Franco he should get the job done today.
Race 8: 1,4,3
Bluegrass Jamboree ran her career best race last time out and demolished a similar field. Today she gets the rail again and gets Lezcano back in the irons.
D J’s Favorite should get a solid pace to stalk in here today. Rice and Alverado have been a solid combo all meet. I would expect this one to be a threat to win late.
Assail has early speed and if she gets away early could pull off an upset. Rosado is shipping in today who rode her last time to a 2nd place finish and is coming in off a couple of solid works at Parx.
Race 9: 2,4,6
Rumor Driven is coming in off a very solid work on march 15th and get Manny Franco in the irons. I am not a huge fan of Chad Brown on the dirt, but this one has a solid pedigree along with getting Manny Franco in the irons first time out. I would be shocked if we get near the 4-1 morning line on this one.
Behind the Couch ran a solid 2nd in her debut and gets Junior back in the irons. Morning line favorite and her works since that start have been iffy, so I am going to try and beat her on top.
Lady Macho ran a very good 4th in her debut and should improve 2nd time out. She only has 1 work since that start which is a bit of a concern, but against this field and with decent odds she should provide value and be worth the risk to use.