Top Pick Results 2019: 60-25-12-7
2019 Overall: +$17.90
Top Pick Results overall: 101-35-24-14
Race 1: 5,3,4
Wanna Be Regal has been right in all 3 starts so far in 2019 and today I think it is her day. The morning line favorite Got the Gist I believe is very beatable here losing by a combined 32 lengths over her last 3 starts against similar company. Wanna be Regal should get a great outside stalk trip and should be a treat late here.
Causin’ Trouble speed figure wise has improved over her last 3 starts and another improvement might just put her over the top today. I place her 2nd today as she was a fast closing 2nd last time out, but she also got a very fast pace and I am not sure that happens here today.
Got the Gist I think is a beatable favorite, but with the combo of Kendrick and Danny Gargan even if she does get beat I think she will still finish in the top 3.
Race 2: 1A,4,3
If Blewitt can break well and establish an early lead I am not sure anyone else will run with him. He is coming off a win here last month and today is cutting back to a distance where he also has a win over this track. Manny Franco is back in the irons and he has been having a fantastic meet. I am expecting low odds on this one, but worth it.
Prompt ran right behind Blewitt 2 starts back here going 1-1/8th. Today it is a shorter distance which I think is a bit of a negative with Prompt as I think he wants to go longer. Mott and Alvarado have been a hot combo as of late and is coming off a solid workout.
Crackspeed is morning line 7-2 but I think he will drift up a bit. First race in North America and first race with Lasix which is always a dangerous angle, but also Clement is adding blinkers and puts Lezcano on. If he breaks well I have to believe the intention is to put this one on the early lead as well.
Race 4: 8,7,3
Alphadora is stretching out today from 6f to 1 mile, but has run well in both career starts against similar competition and has improved in each. She is sired by Alpha so I do not believe the added distance will be an issue.
Becca Takes Charge was a badly beaten favorite last time out, but today gets Junior back in the irons. She was up stalking the pace last time and the pace was not very fast which compromised her I think. Today with Junior she will most likely be taken back again, but I trust Junior to know if the pace is too slow. Junior and Rice have been a consistent combo the last few weeks so hard to rule this one out.
Today Comes Once is also stretching out and has run in both career starts against similar. She is also coming in off a solid 3f in :36 work, but I am not huge on this jockey trainer combo. Could be a threat, but one I will only use underneath and defensively.
Race 5: 8,7,5
Amanda Lane is shipping in from Finger Lakes, but her race 2 back makes her a winner here. Breaking from the outside she should not have any traffic issues and as long as she has a clean break may be loose on the lead.
Tequila Sunday is cutting back in distance and her last couple of races make her competitive in here cutting back. She is only 1 for 25 in her career which is not promising, but her 1 win did come at Aqueduct and she has finished in the money here 5 of 11 times so I think she likes this track.
Zecha always seems to come up short which is why I put her 3rd today. She will be short odds today so I think it is tough to use anyone here at a short price, but if she runs back to ger efforts from January here she will be tough to beat. A must include on multi tickets.
Race 6: 4,7,9,10
Inclunation has run well at this distance in his past 2 starts and today gets a jockey upgrade to Dylan Davis. Also the slight drop in class for Rudy Rodriguez makes this one a must use in my opinion.
Lone Pioneer goes out for Rob Atras who is 19 for 23 this meet for top 2 finishes. At this point toss his horses off your tickets at your own risk, especially with Junior in the irons for this one.
Brazen Prince is a first time gelding today and the blinkers are coming off which in my opinion is a good sign. He is coming off a 2nd place finish against similar and gets a jockey upgrade to Lezcano. Not huge on the outside post, but Lezcano has been hot over the last couple weeks.
Madatory Payout goes out for Linda Rice for the first time who is great with 1st time out horses. Not a fan of post 11 here, but at 6-1 could provide value underneath for exotics.
Race 7: 4,3,2
Running Violence is coming off a win here on 2/3/19 where the 2nd place finisher came back to win by open lengths. This is a slight class jump but gets Lezcano back in the irons which is a positive sign.
Stone Breaker is not lone speed, but appears to be the fastest of the speed so I think with the jockey change to Manny Franco he clears this field early and may be tough to catch. A must include in my opinion.
Clench is cutting back in distance and is going out for the 2nd time in 2019 so should improve. Junior is in the irons and Jason Servis is still having an excellent meet.
Race 8: 5,7,6
Bluegrascat’s Smile has been a bridesmaid so far in all 3 starts in 2019, but I think he finally found a spot to get a win. He cuts back to 1 mile where he does only have 1 lifetime win, but his last race at this distance was a 2nd place finish to a horse who has been running in stakes company.
Uncle Sigh has 3 wins in 8 races at this distance and has 3 wins in 9 starts at Aqueduct. He gets a jockey upgrade to Lezcano today and I expect he will be a bit closer to the pace today. I will be using on all my tickets.
Papa Shot loves this 1 mile distance. Has 4 wins in 10 career starts with 4 other finishes in the money. He gets Gutierrez back in the irons who rode him to a win last time out at this distance and at a morning line of 8-1 is worth using.
Race 9: 10,11
Ever since Outplay dropped in class to this level he has been running well so I am sticking with him today. A bit tougher of a task from the 10 post and is not lone speed, but between the distance and his ability I will take a shot with him again.
T Loves a Fight gets Manny Franco in the irons and if he didn’t draw the far outside would’ve been my top pick. I am still using in everything, but I think the post with speed right on his inside might result in a wider trip then what would be ideal and may cost him a win, but we will see.