3/1- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
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Top Pick Results 2019: 46-20-8-4
2019 Overall: +$24.90
Top Pick Results overall: 87-30-20-11
Race 1: 2,3,1
Americano is dropping down here in class for Linda Rice and I think that makes all of the difference. Was 6 wide last race and still ran alright and today from the 2 post should not be forced wide. Also Junior when teamed with Linda Rice at Aqueduct is winning at a 28% clip.
Rouxhere is coming off a win here at 5-1/2f as front end speed. Today I do not think the added distance does him any favors, but I think he can hang around longer enough to get a piece.
Threatlovesmidnite is a rare Todd Pletcher owned, trained, and bred horse. Yes I know his first 2 starts were beyond awful, but against this field I think he fits and at a price I will use underneath in exotics.
Race 2: 2,4,5
Frostie Anne is one of those horses who I play every time she runs, and more often than not she has come through for me. This 1 mile distance is perfect for her and while I expect her to be the post time favorite I think she is worth the short odds.
Daria’s Angel just missed last time out against Mia Bella Rossa and I think today she will finish in front of her. She gets Junior back in the irons today which is a great sign, but there is also more speed in here so I think she gets a great set up.
Mia Bella Rossa has run back to back impressive races, but with Frostie Anne in here I don’t think she runs another big one. I won’t be shocked if she is the best of the rest though.
Race 3: 4,5,1
Forecaster goes out for Jeremiah Englehart and gets Junior back in the irons who so far on this card I think is going to have a big day. He is adding blinkers off his debut which Englehart is 19% with. This is not a star studded field, so I am playing the trainer jockey angle here.
Stick Man gets Manny Franco in the irons and has had a couple really good works in the last month. I won’t be shocked if this one takes a lot of money, but right now it is very tough to leave Manny off any exotic ticket.
Missionatthespa is a first time gelding for Rudy Rodriguez and while this is not an ideal spot, Rudy is always dangerous in claiming races so hoping this one can be a price I can use underneath. Would not take anything less than 4-1 on this one though if you are trying to use him to win.
Race 4: 7,2,6
Wow, one paper this is a very weak maiden special weight, so I am taking a shot with the first time starter Invest for Linda Rice with Manny Franco in the irons. All but 1 other horse in this field has run at least 5 times and have all failed to win, so I don’t see why that is going to change today.
Celtic Mission is the other horse in here who has less than 5 career starts and goes out for Bill Mott and is adding blinkers with Junior in the irons. Mott’s numbers with adding blinkers aren’t great, but again the rest of this field besides Invest have all lost multiple times and none of them really close loses so staying away from those horses.
If you are going to use a horse on top who has more racing experience here, I think Golconda is your horse. Has finish 2nd in both of his prior races but has improved over those races as well. I think he will need a big improvement to win today, but if you don’t trust one of my top 2 here, this one I think is the next best.
Race 5: 6,3,1
Monteleone is dropping back down today to a level where he has been very successful at. If he breaks clean he will be very tough to beat late, but in his last 2 races although they have been against tougher, he has not had ideal starts and he has run poorly.
Felix in Fabula is cutting back in distance today after finishing 2nd against similar at 1-1/8th last time out. He has early speed which will be helpful for the cutback, but I do not think he is alone on the lead early with Monteleone. I am using him on all tickets though incase he does get loose early.
Hate to see horses who have placed well in graded stake company end up in claiming races, but here is Coltandmississippi. His dirt starts have not been great since switching back from the turf, but this field is not that strong so I am hoping he can at least round out an exotic wager for me.
Race 6: 8,2
Mister Muy Bien is dropping down from maiden special weight to maiden claiming for Rudy who is 27% when dropping horses like this. He also adds Manny Franco in the irons which automatically makes him a must use on all tickets here at Aqueduct.
It’s Mo Joke is coming off an impressive maiden win here in his debut against similar. Besides Mister Muy Bien, It’s Mo Joke is the only other logical play here as the rest of this field has done no good running in any of their previous starts.
Race 7: 6,1,2
I am taking a small stand against Elegant Zip with using Countable on top for Linda Rice. Linda is 30% when stretching horses out from a sprint to a route and wit Elegant Zip coming off a bit of a layoff I think Countable is worth a play against the likely favorite.
Elegant Zip is dropping down out of stakes company for her 3 year old debut. She has run well in the past at this distance and against better so I would not toss her on your multi tickets, but for a win ticket she may need one off the bench.
Intoxicologist is adding blinkers today and is one that while I don’t think she can win here, but I think she can finish underneath for the exotic wagers.
Race 8: 4,2,9
H Man won for me last Friday and if he runs today I will play him back off that effort. As I said last Friday, Jason Servis is RED HOT and this spot is no exception. He is 29% when having horses go from a route to a sprint and is 37% with horses coming off wins in their last start. Is a must play on all tickets.
T Loves a Fight is another horse coming off a win, and he loves this distance with a lifetime record of 6-3-1-0. I am not huge on speed figures, but he fits well in this race if you do use them.
Summer Bourbon is on the outside and against this field he will need to be wide throughout, but also should not get in any traffic turning for home. He gets a jockey upgrade today to Manny Franco which is always a positive sign.