We’re back at it for another Aqueduct Friday, It’s a short card but there is some beatable favorites and value there if you can find it. First post is set for 12:50, best of luck and be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Longshot play(s) of the day: Race 1 #3, Race 2 #2, Race 6 #2
Best Bet(s): Race 4 #1
Through 20 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 193-46-35-43 (24% win, 64% ITM)
Aqueduct meet totals: 44-11-3-14, $1.58 ROI for every $2 bet ($88 wagered = $69.50 returned)
Race 1 MCL 20k 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 3,7 B: 6
Top pick- #3 Plebe
- If you’re trying to play against chalk then here you go. He projects to flash some speed in what looks like a paceless race, maybe he gets loose on the field and wires the field. It helps to be on the lead with a bunch of slow horses behind you.
Second choice- #7 Final Say
- He opens at 4-5 ML in what is just a bad field of maidens. Posted a second and a third in his last race 2 races at a similar level at the same distance and his beyers were close to par. Not much value here so I’ll be playing against.
Underneath- #6 Due West
Race 2 CLM 50k N2L fillies and mares 3yo, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 1,2 B: 4,6
Top pick- #2 Sunflower Rose
- This is actually a decent field considering it is a field of 6 and I landed on Sunflower Rose at 6-1 ML. I like her at a price and she has the speed to be competitive today, ships over from Penn after the n1x allowance level over there proved too much. Should be able to get some value on her.
Second choice- #1 Tiz Epic
- May go off as the favorite and will be tough to beat drawing from the inside. After a poor outing in the slop going a mile last out they cut her back to a distance she has won at and adds blinkers which will help. Linda Rice does well when adding blinkers and Jose Lezcano hops aboard today.
Underneath- #4 Miss Liana, #6 Bodes Sunset
Race 3 AOC 80k n1x 3yo, 6.5 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 1,4 B: 2,3,5
Top pick- #1 Secret Rules
- This seems like the type of race where you hit the all button and move on but I’ll go with the 4-5 ML favorite Secret Rules. He won at the distance last out against maiden special company and now steps right on up for trainer Bill Mott. Has a lot of speed and Junior Alvarado stays aboard today.
Second choice- #4 Polar Bear Pete
- Drops back down to the n1x optional claiming level after being no threat in the Jerome stakes last out. He has won at the distance although it was in the slop against maiden claimers. He did then run a good third next out at this level and that was going 7 furlongs so maybe the slight cut back and drop in class will help him today.
Underneath- #2 King of American, #3 Him She Kisses, #5 Trash Talker
Race 4 CLM 10k fillies and mares 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 1,4 B: 2,5
Top pick- #1 Starlite Mission
- First off the claim she drops down in claiming price after failing as the favorite last out. Linda Rice is 24% first off the claim and the drop should get her back on track.
Second choice- #4 Magari
- She is able to win off the layoff and trainer James Bond is 25% with last out winners. The one thing that keeps me from putting her on top is losing Alvarado who and instead gets Reylu Gutierrez who has not won on her.
Underneath- #2 Jacqueline D, #5 Mimi Media
Race 5 MSW 68k fillies 3yo, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 3,6 B: 2,4
Top pick- #3 Halo City
- There seems to be a lot of speed in this race and I like Halo City to sit right off and make a move down the stretch. David Duggan has good numbers with runners stretching out even though its a small sample and Carmouche stays aboard today. Ran a strong second to a last out winner last time and stays at the same level.
Second choice- #6 Persisto
- Ran second to an impressive winner last time and now gets another try at the same level and distance. Will have to battle #2 Indawin in the early stages for a third time and cannot fall victim to a fast pace but with 3/3 itm lifetime she should be considered.
Underneath- #2 Indawin, #4 Rude Awakening
Race 6 AOC 40k n2x state bred fillies and mares 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 2,4 B: 3,7
Top pick- #2 Forgotten Hero
- Looks pretty good based on her back class and she has run well over dirt in the past. Rider switch and a try over fast dirt may be what she needs to get back on track and she fits the pace scenario pretty well too.
Second choice- #4 Puffery
- Improving in form and Junior Alvarado stays aboard today. Has been consistently hitting the board at this level.
Underneath- #3 Archumybaby, #7 Sweet Meadow Mist
Race 7 Str Alw 25k fillies and mares 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 5,6 B: 4,7
Top pick- #5 Carrizo
- Ran a strong second last out at the n1x allowance level and now drops to the starter allowance level where she has run quite well. Carmouche knows this filly quite well and she has the speed to be right up in the pace today.
Second choice- #6 Jump for Joy
- This 7 year old mare loves the Aqueduct surface with 3 wins in 7 starts and finds a nice starter allowance race to run into today. Will be involved early on as Eric Cancel hops aboard.
Underneath- #4 Mo Flash, Miss Jak
Race 8 CLM 25k N2L fillies and mares 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 1,4 B: 3,7
Top pick- #4 Princess in Charge
- Dropping in class to her eligible condition and adds blinkers. Alvarado should have her forwardly placed as this filly is well spotted for Rob Atras.
Second choice- #1 Nasty Affair
- Came from way off the pace which seems to be her preferred running style to close to second at this level last out, has the right to improve if she can get a clean break.
Underneath- #3 Solitary Gem, #7 Smiles From Sadie