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Top Pick Results 2019: 25-9-3-3
2019 Overall: -$13.60
Top Pick Results overall: 67-19-15-10
Race 1- 1,4,2
Rockin Emmzy was the beaten favorite last time out, but this time she is going out first off the claim for Linda Rice who is 26% with first off the claim. Linda is also 29% with stretching horses out from a sprint to a route. Also is the lightweight today with Gutierrez in the irons.
Stokes is dropping down in class today from a maiden special to a maiden claimer. You can play this one on the drop down angle, but cautiously use this one as she has done no running in her prior 3 efforts.
Karabessa ran her best career race last time out where she finished a fast closing 2nd and finished in front of Rockin Emmzy. She could improve on the stretch out, but she will have her 4th new jockey in as many races being the morning line 2nd choice I will only use this one underneath on exotics.
Race 2- 5,1,3
Siena Magic is going out first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez and gets Manny Franco in the irons, and this combo is winning 29% of the time here at Aqueduct. I like that he has the outside post, and the top two morning line choices are both speed and he has shown the ability to rate off a fast pace. Manny should get this one a very solid trip and should be around his morning line odds of 5-2 if there are no scratches.
Shamrock Kid has been improving in his last few efforts including a career best beyer in his 4 year old debut. He isn’t lone speed today, but he is the inside speed so should be dangerous throughout.
Fox Red did have back to back 80+ beyers 2 and 3 starts back, but his last race he fell back down to his level. Yes he was facing tougher, but I also don’t think this one really wants to go 7f.
Race 3-5,2,4
Lady Bergen is going to be the favorite here, but rightfully so. She has run much better against tougher then this field and has 2 wins already over the track including a win at this distance against similar company back on December 8th 2018. Gutierrez is also back in the irons who won with her last time out.
Miss Emily’s Smile is shipping in from Finger Lakes and if Lady Bergen doesn’t break well this one could take them all the way around. She has early speed and has been running against allowance company at Finger Lakes which might even be a bit classier then this field. Morning line of 8-1 on her, if she is around that I would use her on your tickets.
Sing for Beauty has past races that make her competitive here, but her track record at Big A is not great. Just 1 win in 7 starts with only 2 other money finishes. She is coming off a 6th place finish last time out here where she was beaten by 18 lengths, but she does get a jockey upgrade here to Davis which makes her playable.
Race 4 – 7,3,4
Jack Bo is owned and trained by Jeremiah Englehart and is dropping in class today from a maiden special to a maiden claiming. His workout since his first race was solid and Englehart is 27% with maiden 2nd time starters and is 34% when dropping from a maiden special to a maiden claiming.
Craigsville Beach is a first time gelding today which in claiming races like this is always something to take note of. He finished 2nd against similar company last time out and with being a gelding today and keeping Cancel in the irons should improve.
Trip Ups is 8-5 morning line and I get that he is coming off a bullet work, but I think these are too low of odds to take on this one. He has one race at this company where he finished 2nd by a neck at Parx, but his lone race here at Big A was not good and trainer Scott Lake is not known for spots like this. Use defensively if you need to, but I am taking a stand against this one.
Race 5- 6,4,9
Big Browning is going out for the 2nd time for Jimmy Jerkens and he has numbers that make this horse a must play. He is 35% with maidens 2nd time out and when teamed with Davis in the irons they are 2 for 3 at Aqueduct and are 33% overall. Jimmy is also 41% when stretching horses out.
Daring Disguise is the only Triple Crown nomination in this field and goes out for Linda Rice who is having an excellent meet. He gets Junior in the irons and is coming off a bullet work on 2/4.
Smooth Tales finished 4th in his debut and gets Manny back in the irons today. Linda is also 29% when stretching them out and Manny Franco is 64% finishing in the top 3 this meet so is a must use on tickets.
Race 6- 1,6,2
Science Fiction goes out for Rob Atras who has 5 winners in 9 starters this meet. She gets Junior back in the irons who rode her to victory last time out against a similar field. A must use in my opinion on all tickets.
Questeq is coming off a huge win last time out but is stepping up a bit in class today. I will be using her underneath of my exotics as morning line 5-1 she should provide some value.
Love to Lear has been running well against similar in her last few starts and is coming off a 2nd place finish here last month. I am not a fan that Manny jumps off this one, but Davis and Lynch has been a solid combo at Aqueduct.
Race 7- 3,2
Leah’s Dream on paper is lone speed which has been dangerous all meet here. I am not a huge fan of the jockey change to Worrie, but as lone speed it should not matter who is on her.
If one of the other horses goes with Leah’s Dream early, Passporttovictory is the only other play here in my opinion. Back at a distance where she has run well at in the past and did finish in front of Leah’s Dream 2 starts back. The rest would need this race to fall a part in my opinion to have a shot over these two.
Potential Pick 5 Wagers:
Early Pick 5: 1,2,4/1,5/2,5/3,7/4,5,6,9
$0.50 wager =$48.00
Late Pick 5: 3,7/4,5,6,9/1/2,3/All
$0.50 wager =$72.00
*Other wagers will be posted on Twitter*