Follow @PicksByDynasty for updates due to scratches/changes.
Top Pick Results 2019: 40-15-7-4
2019 Overall: +$4.20
Top Pick Results overall: 81-25-19-11
Race 1: 5,2,1
Castle Casanova is a Triple Crown nominee for Jeremiah Englehart who is making his 2nd start today after finishing 2nd in his debut. Englehart is 26% with maiden 2nd time starters and is 24% with sprints. He gets Junior back in the Iron’s today and should improve with the stretch out from 5-1/2f to 6f.
Deputy Flag went off 16-1 last time out and nearly pulled off the upset. I liked him that day underneath and I like him again today. I doubt we see anywhere near double digit odds today, but this one should be used on all tickets after his performance last time out.
Givetheman a Cigar I had on top last time out and he just seems like a horse who is destined to forever be a maiden. Perfect horse for exotic wagers as he has finished in the money in 6 of 7 lifetime starts at Aqueduct, but hard to see this one winning here. If you have the budget to add him in your early Pick 5 I would say defensively he is not a bad play, but I will try and beat him.
Race 3: 3,2,4
Guacamole Is dropping down to allowance company for Todd Pletcher and she should appreciate the class relief for her 3 year old debut. Her only career race at 6f on the dirt was a 3rd place finish in the G2 Adirondack back in August at Saratoga which a good effort. I’m not a fan of how they were trying her on the turf in her past 3 races, especially with her pedigree, but I am expecting an improvement with the switch back to dirt.
Hey Mamaluke ran lights out in her debut at Parx where she scored by 10+ lengths as front running speed. I see other speed in here so I am not sure if she will be alone up front, but if she does she is a threat to wire this bunch. She gets a jockey upgrade to Dylan Davis as well here.
She’s a Black Belt is dropping out of stakes company and is getting a jockey upgrade to Lezcano. If she runs back to her maiden breaking effort here on December 9th she will be tough to beat.
Race 4: 8,6,7
Delta Gamma had an awful break last time out and was immediately out of that race. I hope lightning doesn’t strike twice here because I think if she gets away clean she will be a tough horse to track down late as I expect her right on the early pace here.
Detective Kid is a first timer for Carlos Martin who has been awful with 1st time starters and in Maiden Claiming races, but this one does get Junior in the irons and Junior is having a great meet. Tough to throw this one out with him riding.
Topline gets Lasix for the first time today and she has a few solid works at 5f that should make her competitive against this field. Not a huge fan of Bruce Levine this meet, but this one fits.
Race 5: 9,2,7
Alrahaal is going out first off the claim for Linda Rice who is 29% with first off the claim and is laso 31% when stretching horses out from a sprint to a route. Alrahaal is also getting some class relief today by taking a bit of a dropdown in class so I expect a much better effort then last time out.
Racing Raven is dropping a bit down in class today for Repole Stables and keeps Maragh in the irons which I like. Again Bruce Levine is not having a good meet at all and as the morning line favorite I could not put this one on top. I would use this one in your multi’s, but Racing Raven has bad favorite written all over.
Seediskid had a poor start last time out and nearly won going longer. Today is cutting back but if the start goes right should be closer to the pace. Morning Line 12-1, this one seems to be worth the risk of putting in exotics and or multi’s if you are not sold on the top few choices.
Race 6: 2,5,4
H Man goes out first off the claim for Jason Service who right now must be on all tickets with his starters. He is 42% with first off the claim horses and 40% in claiming races. I am expecting him to be bet much lower than his 9-5 morning line odds, but is a must use.
Pretentious has a career record of 8-2-3-1 here at Aqueduct and is 7-1-3-1 lifetime at this one-mile distance. I think he would need the race to fall a part to win here but is a very solid exotic wager horse for this one.
Ro Bear does have 2 career wins at this one-mile distance and his past few races make him competitive with this field. He is another one like Pretentious that would need help to win here today, but logically fits as an underneath horse.
Race 7: 4,1A,6
Uncle Sigh lost the rider last time out, but the winner went on to win a stake race next time out. Today he is dropping down in class and is stretching out which I like for his running style. He is also carrying less weight then most in here as Hernandez is in the irons today.
Ironclad has won 3 straight, but today is without Manny Franco in the irons who rode him in all 3 wins, so I am taking a stand against him today. He gets Gonzales in the irons who has only had a handful out mounts this meet and only has 1 win. I would not leave him off your multi tickets, but for the win bet seems like one you can try and beat confidently.
Roaming Union is one of those horses who always looks like he fits no matter the spot and today is no exception. If this one is above 4-1 I think he is worth a play on all tickets, but anything lower and I would try and beat him.