1/31- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
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Top Pick Results 2019: 19-6-2-3
2019 Overall: -$12.00
Top Pick Results overall: 61-16-14-10
Race 1- 4,1,2
Deep Sea has back to back wins over this Aqueduct track and should get a fast pace to stalk here. His last work was a bullet and has been improving in each of his last few starts. Also has a career record of 4-3-0-0 here at Gulfstream and does have 2 career wins at this distance.
Forge is one of two horses in here who ran in the G1 Vosburgh back in September of 2018, but neither ran well, and if the connections really thought they were stakes horses they would not be in for a tag today. Forge has run well against this company in the past, and does like this 6f distance with a career record of 8-3-1-2. Will include him on my multi’s.
Still Krz I have never been a huge fan of, but dropping down looks dangerous. Has early speed, but has been steadily declining since winning at Saratoga.
Race 2- 6,2,3
Sam and Jax has plenty of red flags to stay away from him here, but man the rest of this field has been so inconsistent that taking a shot with a 1st time starter just makes sense. Never a good sign when they are debuting at 4, especially after selling for 300K as a 2 year old, and I know Chad isn’t the best on dirt, but this one fits and if he is around 3-1 like his morning line odds are then he also provides value.
Givetheman a Cigar has finished in the money in his past 5 starts, only problem is that he is camera shy it seems like. Always looks to be 2nd best, and I don’t see that changing today. He has hit the board in all 5 career starts at Big A and is a must use in exotics.
Tiz Morning has run twice at this distance and has two third place finishes to show for it, but he is coming off a bullet work and his past few races make him a legit contender in here. Morning line 8-1, if we get around that I will use him on all my tickets.
Race 3-6,7,8
Bourbon Did It was 5 wide last time and finished 2nd, but took money that day and today is back at the same distance and conditions. He gets Lezcano back in the irons which I like to see and his last race on paper is good enough to beat most in here.
Deputy Flag is a first time gelding and is adding blinkers today which both can be taken as positive signs. Thomas Morley is 27% with a $2.81 ROI when dropping horses from MSW to MCL with 11 starters and is 19% first time blinkers. Personally I think this one will need to improve too much to beat the favorite, but if you don’t like Bourbon Did It, Deputy Flag should provide value and should improve.
Secret Lies is shipping in from Parx, and what really caught my eye is Edward Coletti’s percentage for Maidens 2nd time out. He is 29% with 7 starters or 2/7, but he is also 27% with horses coming off a 31-60 day layoff. Morning line of 10-1. Another horse that should improve off a prior effort.
Race 4 – 6
Hay Field on paper lays over this field. She has a career record of 6-3-2-0 at Aqueduct and is dropping back to a level where she has won his last 2 races. She adds Gutierrez in the irons which also makes her the lightweight and having the outside post makes her dangerous for circling the field as they turn for home. She is my single in the Pick 5.
Race 5- 5
Hot Sriracha was my pick last Friday where he did no running to finish 5th. Today he is stretching out which based on his pedigree should not be an issue. I am not huge on using him on top again after his last performance, but logically I could not find a better alternative. Going to use 1,3,5,8 to end my Pick 5.
Race 6- 9,8,4
Taking a small stand against T Loves a Fight and going with Adirondack Dream. He is shipping in from Finger Lakers for Chris Englehart, but has been running well against this company there. He has run alright at Aqueduct in the past as well and has early speed which has been dangerous here this winter.
T Loves a Fight gets Manny Franco back in the irons for Linda Rice and I honestly am not sure what to make of this one. He will be the favorite, but was a bad beaten favorite last time out at this company but it was in the slop. Is a must use on your mutli race tickets, but worth trying to beat with a win bet in my opinion.
O Shea Can U See is dropping down and also has early speed which has been dangerous here. He also gets Lezcano back in the irons who has ridden him to his last 2 wins.
Race 7- 4,1,6
Family Biz was 3rd behind Mind Control in the Jerome which is more than anyone else in this field can say. Not a huge fan of the work coming out of that race, but if he runs back to that effort he will be tough here.
Twelfthofneverland should get a solid pace to sit behind today and is 2-2 at Aqueduct and is 2-2 at the 1 mile distance. A must use in my opinion with Manny Franco in the irons.
Captain Frost won by 8 last time out, but is stepping up in class today. He will have value on the board, and if he improves again he fits right in with the rest. He also keeps Junior for the jump in class which I also like to see.
Potential Pick 5 Wagers:
Early Pick 5: 1,2,4/2,3,6/6,7,8/6/1,3,5,8
$0.50 wager =$54.00
Late Pick 5: 6/1,3,5,8/8,9/1,4,6/3,5,6,10,11
$0.50 wager =$60.00
*Other wagers will be posted on Twitter*