Today marks the start of the Winter meet at Aqueduct. It is a 9 race card with the feature being Race 8, a $62,500 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares 3 y.o. and up. Only one race is on the turf, Race 7, and I will give both turf and dirt picks in case it gets taken off as so many tuf races at NYRA have this year. Let’s get to it:
Race 1: 2-5-6
#2 House Limit will open up the 4-5 ML favorite and looks to be the one to run down. He put up a 79 Beyer going 6 ½ furlongs last time out and will now go a mile with a Beyer par of 82. Gets lasix for the first time for an excellent stretch out trainer in Jimmy Jerkens. On bottom, #5 Smart Step and #6 Alrahaal are the most likely candidates to finish in the money, but other than that there is not a ton going on in the opener.
Race 2: 7-6-3
#7 No Distortion runs at the same level at his last race and gets a drop in distance which should help. Last 2 works are very solid and gets David Cohen in the irons yet again. #6 We Did comes off 2 straight wins at Finger Lakes and could come from off the pace in a race that has a lot of early speed, gets Franco again and decent numbers for trainer Chris Englehart. #3 Saratoga Heater is also a closer type but may need more distance to be a real threat.
Race 3: 3-9-6
#3 Formal Event should fare better on a fast track and has posted his best efforts in these 1 mile turn miles. #9 Emerald Quality seems like he belongs at this distance, going 1-0-1 in 2 starts at a mile and placing in the money in his only race at Aqueduct. #6 Eight Minute Ellie is a bit of a longshot here but finished second last time out a much higher price.
Race 4: 6-9-1-4
#6 Ja’s Malibu opens 20-1 ML and ran a bullet from the gate in her last workout a little over a week ago, breeding suggests she’s in the right spot here. #9 Princess Pinky has early speed to flash, gets a drop in distance and looking at her debut race should finish in the money. #1 Abraxan shows improving beyers and gets ½ furlong less distance which should bode well for her.
Race 5: 3-5-4
#3 Forever changed won her last start and now stretches out for trainer Charlton Baker, Junior Alvarado in the irons in a pretty weak field. #5 Short Pour drops from a stakes race down to state-bred company with a pretty decent jockey/trainer combo. #4 Three Birds should close late with a late speed figure of 91.
Race 6: 3-5-9
#3 Flat Calm drops in distance for a trainer that is 24% switching from routes to sprints. Gets Junior Alvarado and should be right there in a potentially very fast early pace. #5 Shimmering Moon is another Linda Rice trainee, 8/12 ITM at this distance and ⅗ at Aqueduct, plus Rice is 22% off the claim. #9 Noble Freud should be one of three horses to go out to contest the lead early and should hold for third.
Race 7: Turf- 1A-6-3-10 Off track: 7-8
#1A Come on City looks like the clear favorite if this race stays on turf, shipping over from Germany for a trainer that sports strong numbers in this spot. Off the turf, look at the MTO’s, especially #7 Stay Fond, but it will be tough to find any value here if this race gets taken off and there are a lot of scratches.
Race 8: 9-7-3-2
#9 Sunset Ridge and #7 Crimson Frost seem like the two legit contenders in this race. Sunset Ridge flashes early speed for Chad Brown after his first defeat coming off the layoff. Crimson Frost has closing speed in this spot but don’t see him running down the favorite here.
Race 9: pass
Maiden claimers are tough betting races, and I can’t find a reason to like any of these horses in here.