Aqueduct Racing Analysis- Dec 22, 2018- By Ivan Lopez

Another good nine race card at Aqueduct highlighted by the Queens County Stakes for three year old and upward on the main track, traveling nine furlongs. There is a good possibility for an off track for Saturday, so keep that in mind when handicapping this card.

1st race: 1 Mile. ™Mdn 68k FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Taking Aim (2), Lady Hester (6), Cottonwood Falls (3)

Second race for trainer Linda Rice, I think that last race was too close to the next to last, with just five days rest. Now she gets almost a month and had a good work in preparation for this one. Junior Alvarado and Linda Rice hit at a 28 % clip. Lady Hester should get a clear lead from that six post, lets see how far she can go. Working steadily since the middle of November. Cottonwood Falls goes second tome out for Chad Brown, but didn’t like the way she threw the towel in her debut. Nice progression on her works, and Manny Franco gets the call now.

2nd race: 7 Furlongs. Clm  16000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

No Distortion (2), Gorelli (8), Quay Voltaire (7)

Top pick was claimed for 10,000 in his last effort, which was a solid performance. Now climbs the ladder for a trainer which is 7 for 9 ITM with his runners at the current meeting. Not much of a winning machine, but in this group, this is the norm rather than the exception. Last time Gorelli ran in a group as low as this one he won easily. This is his second race after a four month hiatus, and Gutierrez rides him back. Very dangerous in the latter stages. Quay Voltaire just won at 25,000 and gets a drop in class. Don’t like that at all, but that race wins in here if he repeats the effort.

3rd race: 6 Furlongs. ™OC  75000n2x FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

Miss Imperial (3), Sheza Diva (1), Takecharge Mirella (4)

Miss Imperial won like a good thing in her return to the races for trainer Steve Asmussen. Now under the care of Jason Servis, she can sit right off the leaders and come running from the three sixteenths pole on. Manny Franco will be on her saddle. Sheza Diva won her vow run very impressively, and now gets a class test against much tougher fillies, but the talent clearly is there. Takecharge Mirella is the one filly that has been running against the better company, and now she does not have to be part of the early fray. I expect a better performance from her.

4th race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘MC 50000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

D Sis (6), Annette’s Humor (7), Pendolino (3)

My favorite is perhaps the fastest of this bunch, now returning from a two and a half months stop, should be at or very close to the lead when the doors open. Gutierrez inherits the mount from Jose Ortiz and she has been breezing steadily for this race. Annette’s Humor was clearly beaten by my top pick, but that last race was vastly improved, and Rudy is effective when dropping for a tag (21%). Pendolino ran well in her most recent start, which was versus very similar company. She needs some pace up front, not clear if she will get it but the cutback in distance makes her dangerous. Manny will climb up her saddle for trainer Tim Hills.

5th race: 1Mile. Clm  50000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Someday Jones (1), Devine Dental (3), Ironclad (2)

This horse has been running in stakes in Penn National and Parx, and doing very well in the process. He also likes to win, with seven victories in seventeen lifetime starts. Rail has not been kind lately here, but I think the mile trip will allow his jockey to get into a better position from where he can make his late run. Devine Dental is the fastest in here and has been showing clear signs of improvement. Now under the tutelage of Michelle Nevin, which excels second time after claim, hitting at 24%. Ironclad was claimed for 40,000 and immediately gets a class hike to 10,000 more than what we was acquired for, a definite positive sign. Goes from an 11% trainer to a 23% trainer.

6th race: 6½Furlongs. ‘Mdn 60k FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Centennial Banker (11), True Gold (2), The Big Lebanese (10)

Don’t like at all what we have seen from the horses with experience, so I’ll go with a fresh face. This one goes for trainer Steve Asmussen, who generally doesn’t send many horses to the Big A. Works have not been that great at all, but this is the modus operandi for Asmussen, who saves the best for race day.  True Gold ran great in his first two starts, but then has faded dramatically. Blinkers go on for Charlton Baker and we can expect him to go to the lead. Franco shows up here. The Big Lebanese is another debut runner and seems to be fast out of the blocks. Trainer Barbara not known for 2 year old winners, let’s see what this one can do.

7th race:  6Furlongs. ‘Alw  64000n1x FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Our Last Buck (5), Smokin Platinum (4), Suas (13)

Our Last Buck is the horse that has more upside potential of all in here, with just three races lifetime. Didn’t have a good break in his latest race, Cancel rides back and good breeze a week ago to tighten screws. I think Mike Luzzi noticed something in that last race (probably distracted himself) that prompted him to recommend putting blinkers on this horse. Now he gets them and goes back to his favorite trip, the six furlongs. Suas needs to have a burning pace upfront to be effective, and the outside post does him no favors either, but with the right setup he should be right there at the finish.

8th race: 1 1/8 Mile. QueensCoB125K  Queens County S. Purse $125,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Name Changer (1), Adulator (2), Exulting (10)

Not that much initial zip signed in here, so I’ll go with the horse that have shown at least some ability to be at or near the lead. Name Changer should be able to work a nice rail trip from a garden spot position and is clearly the horse to beat. He is a Grade III winner, the lone graded winner in this field. Adulator will probably be able to dictate the pace from that number two hole, with Exulting following him all along. Don’t be surprised this is sort of a Merry Go Round race.

9th race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘MC 25000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Wanna Be Regal (4), Ramblin Maam (8), Simmering Miss (2)

Wanna Be Regal improved dramatically in that last race and is now coming back from an eleven month break, working very nicely for horse of this quality. Harry Hernandez gets the call in here and looks poised to score right off the bench. For some reason, Ramblin Maam was eleven lengths out of the pace in her most recent start. She gets blinkers now and Manny Franco on her saddle. 0 for 7 isn’t something to brag about, but she has run the best of this group. Too many things went wrong in that return race for Simmering Miss; she didn’t break well, and then was eased by her jockey. After that, she has worked three times and now Gullo puts blinkers on her.

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