12/21- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
Bankroll: $50.00
Overall :-$203.75
Top Pick Results: 32-8-7-5
Race 1- 4,5,2
China Rider is going out for the first time off the claim for Sason Jervis who is an eye-popping 41% this year with first off the claim. She is getting back to the dirt today where she found success on 9/26 at Belmont against tougher company.
Miss Marion is shipping in from Finger Lakes for Jeremiah Englehart and is getting a jockey upgrade to Junior Alvarado. She has early speed which makes her dangerous over this Aqueduct main track and has 3 wins in 6 starts at this distance.
Race 2- 3,2,5
Americano is dropping a bit in class today and is coming off a very solid work on December 9th. He has shown early speed in his previous 2 races, and with the cutback in distance today I think he will be forwardly placed. Bill Mott also has only had a handful of starters this meet, but most of them have run their races, I find it hard to rule out his horses right now.
Saratoga Style should be a nice price in here and is first off the claim for Gary Contessa. She is facing the boys today, but has too solid of a pedigree for me to think she won’t improve today, and at 10-1 ML, I will take a shot with including her.
Power Source won last time out at Belmont back on 10/14 and that race is good enough to win here today. It was a pretty large jump from his debut to his win so I am cautious that he is going to do that again, but using him as a saver on Multi’s.
Race 5- 3,6,5
Sara Street was my top pick in the G2 Gazelle and the G2 Black Eyed Susan earlier this year. She is back today and gets Dylan Davis back in the irons and has been working well. She has never finished worse than 2nd at Aqueduct so I am expecting her to show her A game today.
Pecan Pattie beat older filly’s last time out by 10 lengths, but it was a weaker field. If you don’t like Sara Street, Pecan Pattie is the next logical horse here as she is faster than the rest.
Three Hawk is shipping in from Laurel and has shown improvement in all 3 career starts. If she improves again today, she should find herself at least in the money at a price.
Race 8- 2,3,6
Golden Brown is going to be a price, but with the amount of speed in here I think he gets a perfect set up. The speed horses in this field are all camera shy, and his last race in November he made up a ton of ground late. Today he stretches out and gets Maragh in the Irons who rides well at Aqueduct. He will be a price, but one that you should include.
J S Bach has been right there in 6 of his 7 starts in 2018 and has never missed the money at Aqueduct and has never missed the money at this distance. There is a lot of speed here so he should get first jump at them as they turn for home. I always have a hard time putting horses that are up for claim on top which is why I have him 2nd, but I will use him in everything.
Title Ready is cutting back in distance and while he has run against tougher, he is just camera shy. Has not had any excuses in his last 2 races where he finished 2nd and has not found the winners circle since February 1st. He is one of those too dangerous to leave out horses on multi’s.
Race 9- 5,8,3
I have had Our Girl Abby on top in her last 2 races and I am not getting off her now. If she runs like she has in her last 2 races here at Aqueduct then the rest of this field is running for 2nd.
Questeq always seems to go off at a solid price, but on dirt has a career record of 6-1-1-2. She finished 2nd behind Our Girl Abby on November 14th at 13-1 odds.
D J’s Favorite goes out for Linda Rice who is having an excellent meet and gets a jockey upgrade to Junior Alvarado today. She will need to improve to win, but has shown improvement over her last two races so it is not out of the question.
Wagers: $50.00 Total
Race 1: $10 Win on 4
Race 2: $5 Win on 3
Race 5: $5 Win on 3
Race 8: $5 Win/Place on 2. $2 Double 2,3,6/5, $2 Exacta Box 2,3
Race 9 :$10 Win on 5