Blog

How to handicap the turf with The Staggie Man

The first thing I look at when looking at the program is what type of race it is.  I usually only play turf races, so I will skip the races that aren’t on the grass. Second thing I look at is the class of the race.  Below is a description of the class structures.

• Maiden Claiming Races (FAVORS CLASS)
  • Maiden Claiming races are for horses that never won a race and aren’t thought to be good enough to run in higher classes.
• Maiden Special Weight Races (FAVORS SPEED)
  • Maiden Special Weight races are the top quality maiden horses that are expected to win and move up in class and can’t be claimed.
• Claiming Races (FAVORS SPEED)
  • These are races were horses could be claimed and vary from 1k to 100k.   There is optimal claiming races as well
• Allowance Races (FAVORS CLASS)
  • Allowance races are for horses not for sale and upper class horses.  There are certain rankings in these allowance races.
    • N1X- Horses have not won an allowance race
    • N2X- Horses won no more than one allowance race
    • N3X- Horses won no more than two allowance races
    • N4X- Horses won no more than three allowance races
• Stakes Races (FAVORS SPEED AND CLASS COMBINED)
  • The best of the best horses and vary in stakes ranks as well.
    • Non-Graded Stakes
    • GIII Stakes
    • GII Stakes
    • GI stakes (BREEDERS CUP/DERBY/PREAKNESS/BELMONT)

The key about knowing these classes is huge for picking winners especially horses that are dropping in class.  Horses tend to improve dropping in class from Maiden ranks to maiden claiming. Sprint races (5F to 7F) favor speed horses and routes (1M to ETC) favor class horses.  Races on the turf favor class.

TRIP HANDICAPPING

Next, lets take a look at the pace of the race.  There are 4 types of horses in a race.: Speed horses, Pressers, Stalkers and closers.

• Speed Horses
  • Horses that will be going for the lead in the first ¼ of the race and looking to go wire to wire.
  • Will be ridden hard at the beginning of the race to get to the lead.
• Presser Horses
  • Horses that will be sitting 3^rd of 4^th in the race about 1-2 lengths behind the speed horses and look to grind away at the speed horses as they get tired after running hard early.
• Stalkers
  • Horses that are sitting mid-pack behind the speed and presser horses and looking to save ground and relax during the race.  They will come running during the final turn before the closers.
• Closers
  • Horses that will be sitting in the back of the pack and watching all the horses in front ran their fastest and as they get tired the closers will come flying in the stretch to run them down.

The next thing I do after analyzing the distance and class of the race is check out how many speed horses are in the race to see if there is going to be a potential speed duel.   Below is my selection strategy based on pace of the race at certain distances on the turf.

TURF SPRINTS (1 mile or shorter)

• IF there are only 1 or 2 Speed horses in a race, I will take a speed horses to try and go gate to wire, based on who is fastest- I will pick the faster one.

• 2 or 3 speed horses in a sprint turf race, I will look into pressers that will be sitting right off the speed and take the lead at the top of the stretch after a speed duel.

• 3 or 4 speed horses, I will look into stalkers.

• 4 or 5 speed horses, I will look into closers.  

TURF ROUTES (1 mile or longer)

• IF there are only 1-speed horses in a race, I will take the only speed to go right to the lead and relax, as there are no other speed horses in the race to go gate to wire.
• 1 to 2 speed horses, I will look at the pressers and this is my FAVORITE trip for any turf race.  Horse sitting right off the speed and making first run at the top of the stretch and taking the lead looking to fight off the closers and stalkers late.

• 2 to 3 speed horses, I take a look at the stalkers of the race especially ones that have a good post-position to save ground and then come running outside of the pressers and speed.  In theory, the speed will get tired and the pressers will have to run harder to keep up with the speed horses so stalkers will be the play.

• 3 or 4 speed horses, I will take a chance with a closer as there is going to be a fast pace in front of them with the speed balls going at it for the lead.  

After I look at the pace of the race and analyze what style has a big shot to win the race.  I begin looking at the horses form with the style favored to win based on the speed of the race.  The first thing I look at with form in the sense of speed figures. Are they trending upwards as they are increasing with every race?  If they are that should show that the horse is improving and might make a trip to the winner’s circle.

The next thing I look at in form is the workouts.  A “sharp” workout means the faster than 12 seconds per furlong at 4F or 5F, that shows that horse is in top shape and ready to go.  This is very important when betting first time starters or horses that haven’t ran in the last 90 days.

KEY TRAINER ANGLES

Then, I proceed to look at trainer angles.  Here are some of the angles below that can show some opportunity for the horse to improve his performance or speed figures.

• 1^st off the claim
• 2^nd off the layoff
• 3^rd off the layoff (With the first two races from the layoff show improvement in speed figures)
• Blinkers on
• Blinkers Off
• Drops in class
• 2^nd start on the grass
• 2^nd career start (horses tend to improve 8 to 13 points better in the speed figures)

All of these angles should be in your past performances.

Pedigree

Here is a list of sires/pedigree horses to consider when playing turf horses

Arch	Danzig	Dynaformer	Giant’s Causeway	Kingmambo
Kitten’s Joy	Sadler’s Wells	Storm Cat	Theatrical	Galileo

I use this list when horses are trying the turf for the first time or first time starters.  The main thing is to have fun and enjoy the races!! Good luck to all in your future endeavors.