A Look Inside: Handicapping Older Horses in Maiden Races, by John Piassek

I’ve always enjoyed handicapping older horses in maiden special weight races, primarily because there are a few angles that enables a handicapper to easily eliminate several horses per field.

For those who may not know, a “maiden” race refers to a race where every horse in the field has yet to win. There are two types of maiden races: a “maiden special weight” means that every horse in the field is carrying the same weight, and are not for sale. Meanwhile, a “maiden claiming” race refers to a race where everyone can be bought for a pre-determined price. This column will focus on handicapping the former type of race, although some of the angles can be applied to the latter type as well.

In any case, when handicapping maiden races, there are two types of horses that I generally avoid:

1. First-Time Starters

There is no bigger sucker bet in racing than betting a first-time starter in an older maiden race. They almost never win, and many times go off at low odds.

First-time starters struggle for the same reason that people don’t usually shoot below par the first time they play golf: inexperience. Rarely will you find a horse good enough to defeat a field full of experienced horses first time out. The numbers bear this out. At the 2017 Saratoga meet, there were 37 older maiden races that featured at least one first-time starter. Firsters won just two of them, good for a 5.4% strike rate. At the 2018 Keeneland fall meet, no older first-timer won a race.

An instructive example of capitalizing against these horses can be found in the seventh race at Saratoga on August 31, 2018. It was a maiden race for fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up. Out of the eight horses in the field, two of them were racing for the first time. One of them, Mo Moxie, was seriously bet. She was the favorite for a good part of the wagering, and went off as the third choice, at 3.50/1.

This was a prime opportunity to get an overlaid price on a real contender. Consider: the brisnet speed figure par for this race was a 91. Generally speaking, you want to find a horse that has run within at least five points of that par in their career. For Mo Moxie to be a contender, you’d have to count on her running at least an 86 first time out. Possible? Yes, but not likely. One of the other horses in the field, Big Birthday, ran an 89 two races back, and an 83 last time out. Smile More ran an 81 in her debut, and with a race under her belt, looked like the kind of horse who could take a big step forward second time out. Taking Mo Moxie to win, especially at low odds, required a big leap of faith.

The outcome of the race proved fairly obvious. Big Birthday won and paid a generous $7.10, while Smile More ran second and completed an exacta that paid $18 for every $1. Mo Moxie was a non-threatening fifth (the other firster in the field, Tipazar, was third at 10/1, 3 1/2 lengths behind Smile More).

2. Horses With “Second-itis”

Also known as “chronic maidens” or “sucker horses”, these types always finish in second or third in maiden races, but never seem to break through and actually win. Such horses are almost always overbet by the public, with the logic that if they keep coming close, they’re due. Of course, they rarely come in, and when they do, they go off at very low odds.

Consider Sellwood, in the 5th race at Del Mar on November 12, 2018. He was entered in a maiden special weight race at one mile on the turf. Going into the race, he had run nine times, with five second-place finishes and two thirds. In his last three tries in maiden races on the turf, he came in second, going off at 3.60/1 or less every time. This was the kind of horse to avoid at all costs. Time and time again, he had tried to win against maidens on the turf, and he kept failing. He was 0.60/1 to start the wagering, and ended up going off at 1.40/1. True to his record, he narrowly missed, finishing second again.

So, what are the best types of horses to bet in maiden races? Generally, you’ll want to find a horse who is fairly lightly-raced, and has shown some ability in their careers. In the case of the Sellwood race, he was running against a horse named Cupid’s Claws, who had raced three times. In his career, he had finished second once and third once, and earned a sharp brisnet figure of 90 in his last race. If he just missed again, he would be in danger of getting labeled as a “sucker horse”. However, in this case, he was lightly raced enough to consider a bet. He held off Sellwood in the last strides, and paid a respectable $8.20 for every $1 invested.

My favorite example of handicapping these kinds of races came at Saratoga on August 1, 2018. The fifth race that day was for older female maidens, at 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. Out of the ten horses in the field, four of them had never run before, so they could be easily tossed. Two more horses, Gifted Lady and Tell Your Mama, had already raced more than five times without a win, which made them shaky. This left four primary contenders.

The favorite in the field, at 0.80/1, was Our Circle of Love. In her brief career, she had raced twice, finishing second each time. Two races is a bit early in a horse’s career to declare them a sucker horse, but she had gone off at very low odds in her last race, against weak maiden horses, and couldn’t get past the winner. That’s not a great sign going forward. Given her very low odds, it was best to look towards someone else.

One interesting horse was Catoria. She had raced just one time, in a maiden special weight race at Monmouth Park. She showed brief speed and faded, ultimately finishing fourth, earning a figure of 71. Her running lines and comments in the past performances indicate that she was hung in the four-path on the pace, not a great trip by any means. In spite of that, she didn’t run too badly. Could she improve second time out? It was a good possibility, and when she went off at 23.90/1, she looked like she was worth a bet.

As it turned out, she did improve second time out. She went right to the lead and never looked back, winning by 1 3/4 lengths. Our Circle of Love finished second once again; the exacta combining the two returned $81.25 for every $1 invested.

The moral of the story? When handicapping maiden races, toss the inexperienced and the overexperienced, and you’re halfway there.

Close Menu