No horseplayer wants to play the favorite if they don’t have to. Sometimes, though, circumstances force it: if a horse looks that much the best on paper, a player might place a small win bet if the price is right, or use the horse in multi-race wagers and pray they don’t “chalk out”.
Not all favorites are invincible, however. Finding a horse that you don’t like, and who is almost certain to go off at low odds, can be just as valuable as discovering a horse who you think has an excellent chance to win. From a win betting perspective, the poor favorite is going to eat up a lot of money in the pool, inflating the odds on the horses who have a better chance. In multi-race wagers, even a few losing favorites can dramatically sweeten the payoff.
A great example came in the first race at Churchill Downs on September 22, 2019. It was a n/w2x allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on the grass, with a field of six. The wagering was absolutely dominated by Ulele, and it’s easy to see why. She finished second in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Indiana Oaks earlier in the year, and was coming off a poor performance in the prestigious Alabama Stakes. Clearly, bettors saw that she was taking a big drop class, and scurried to the windows to cash in.
However, there was one serious problem: all of those races were on dirt. Ulele was trying the grass for the first time, against a field of older, experienced grass fillies and mares. In order to win this race, she’d have to be just as good on a different surface. Some horses can do that, but it isn’t common. Was it worth taking 0.80/1 that Ulele would take to the grass first time out?
At her low odds, Ulele commanded more than half of the win pool. By taking her out of the mix as a contender, the odds of everyone else in the field were dramatically inflated. Therefore, just by betting any other horse to win, you were getting an insane price.
A horse like Peru, for example, looked pretty enticing. She had been competing against stakes company on the grass all year, with mixed results. Last year, she won the Claiming Crown Tiara at Gulfstream Park, plus notched two victories against horses similar to those she was facing here. She went off at 2.60/1: not a great price by itself, but had Ulele not been in the race, it would have been much lower. Yet, Peru’s chances of winning were about the same.
Peru ended up winning the race by 1 1/4 lengths and paying $7.20 to win, while Ulele faded after setting the pace. All things considered, that price was a massive overlay.
A few moments later, a similar scenario played out in the second race at Belmont Park. The race was a maiden claiming race for New York-bred fillies and mares, going six furlongs on the grass. Shannon’s Girl was the comfortable favorite, going off at 8/5. She was a shaky win candidate, however. In her last two races, both at this level, she had finished second. Overall, she had eight races, no wins, four seconds, and no thirds. Those types of horses are rarely good bets. At low odds, it looked even worse.
The 3/1 second favorite was Bean Counter. She had raced once in her career: at Gulfstream Park back in February. It wasn’t a great race, and she was coming off a layoff, but she had two key things going for her: she was lightly raced (i.e. not a proven loser yet), and had never lost a maiden claiming race before. With those things factored in, she was a much better alternative to the favorite.
Bean Counter did get the job done, paying $8.20 to win. Shannon’s Girl finished second, again. It was another prime example of a vulnerable favorite dramatically increasing the odds on a contender.
The moral of the story: when handicapping, don’t just look for horses you like. Look for those you don’t like who figure to be low odds. It could make all the difference.