The social media era has given us a great deal of insight into how horseplayers are constructing their multi-race horizontal tickets. We get to see dozens upon dozens of strategies. Amongst those strategies, we see the good, the bad, and the ugly. One important tidbit of knowledge that I’ve recently become more aware of is that good tickets often do not win, and downright ugly tickets can occasionally win.
Let’s take a minute to dissect what makes a ticket a good wager, and conversely how a poorly constructed ticket can flush away some good handicapping that you’ve done.
I want to preface this entire write up with the fact that I’m not an expert on wagering, and these opinions are based on personal experiences and situations I’ve encountered in my life as a non- professional horseplayer.
One of the strategies I see used regularly is to find a short priced single in a pick 4 and use several horses or even all of the horses in other legs of the sequence. I’m going to call this strategy UGLY. This is what I refer to as a Hail Mary approach to betting. You’re singling a horse that a lot of other people are singling and then diluting that opinion by using far too many horses in the other legs and just hoping for a price.
So what do we do in the event that there is an odds on horse in the sequence that appears to be a winner?
This situation presents itself regularly, so we have to look at how to best capitalize on the situation. First off, we have to do a much better job of narrowing our opinion in the other legs of the sequence to avoid throwing up a “Hail Mary”.
If you find yourself in a situation where you’ve decided that there are more than a couple horses in a leg that have a chance to win, then you have to start to develop a plan to assess their chances versus your perception of the final closing odds of the horse. This is when you must consider making multiple tickets to attack the sequence.
In the first leg you think 5 horses have the potential to win, but we know that all of them don’t have an equal chance to win. Their odds are 6/5, 3/1, 9/2 ,12/1, and 25/1 for a reason. In the past we’ve been in the habit of putting all 5 of them on the ticket and crossing our fingers that our 25/1 horse will somehow win. What we should be doing is weighing our opinion with our money and play multiple tickets.
In the second leg, you see two horses that are 3/1 and 7/2 that you think are going to win.
The third leg is where the 3/5 horse looks to be an easy winner.
And the fourth leg is fairly simple as well with a 2/1 and a 3/1 horse with the only chances to win.
So your old ticket structure would be 5x2x1x2 and cost $20 for a $1 base wager.
What’s the issue with that? It’s a small amount wagered and we got a 25/1 shot in there to maybe make it pay!
Here’s the issue. At least 6 of your 20 combinations don’t even give you an opportunity to win any money. Remember, we’re betting against each other. You saw the 3/5 horse as being an easy winner, and guess what? So did everyone else!! So let’s figure out how to ensure ourselves a profit by changing a few simple things when our opinions are all correct.
Here’s a very basic example of how to capitalize on the 3/5 horse without having to decide which horses you like the best in the first leg by letting the odds dictate how you structure the ticket:
$5 base wager: Leg One: 6/5 horse with, Leg Two: 3/1 and 7/2 horses with, Leg Three: 3/5 horse with, Leg Four: 2/1 and 3/1 horses.
Cost $20
$1 base wager: Leg One: 3/1 and 9/2 horses with, Leg Two: 3/1 and 7/2 horses with, Leg Three: 3/5 horse with, Leg Four: 2/1 and 3/1 horses.
Cost $8
$0.50 base wager: Leg One: 12/1 and 25/1 horses with, Leg Two: 3/1 and 7/2 horses with, Leg Three: 3/5 horse with, Leg Four: 2/1 and 3/1 horses.
Cost $4
By separating our wagers like this, we’re giving ourselves an opportunity to actually make a profit in the event that the 6/5 horse does win the first race rather than being disappointed in looking at will pays of $13.50 and $18 heading into the last leg of the sequence.
Yes, we’re in for $32 instead of $20, but regardless of the outcome of the races, if we picked 4 winners, we WIN money. Which should be the primary goal we’re focusing on when playing the races.