Race 1
I was originally leaning towards passing this race because Mcknight’s Vividari(3) looks tough off of sizzling works and a major drop in class. He could duel with #1 the Kippy Train and overtake him on the turn for an easy win. But, is he really much faster than these? well… his 74 Beyer, yes, but the rest of his races, No !
The way I am looking at it, numbers 2,4,5, and 6 all have similar Beyer speed figures and none are very far from Vivadari’s normal effort. That being said, I want the stalkers who will be closest to the pace in a five furlong event and I believe the #5 Legal Gump and #4 Duke of Miami are those horses. I am taking a small shot against the favourite with #5 Legal Gump at 20-1 on the Morning Line. I fear that #4 wants slightly longer but I will not let him beat me in the double.
Suggested Wagers: 2$ Daily Double : 4,5 with 2,3 1$ DD 4,5 with 5,1 3$ DD 3 with 2 2$ DD 4,5 with 2
Total wager: 19$
Race 2
The second race is a cheap maiden claimer with many horses who stopped after leading in their last. #3 Firmly Grounded should take the bulk of the wagering support after leading and finishing a respectable fourth in this class last time. However, I do not fully trust him off that effort but will use him defensively. Perhaps he can get softer fractions and will benefit from shortening half a furlong? I do not see #5 G Prince of Silver making the front in here and that does not bode well for his chances given that he has shown no interest in passing horses and seems like a horse who needs the lead to win. #1 Spanish Matador has the right to improve in his second lifetime start and the nice dirt works are encouraging. He is a C type horse in multis.
The horse I am mostly interested in is #2 Animal Krackers. He drops into a lower class level after fading in his first outing but should be more fit this time around. His trainer Sid Attard is bound to get hot sooner rather than later after giving his horses a race; I am upgrading his horses who are second time off the layoff given his conservative nature. From a class standpoint, this race should suit #2 Animal Krackers and I am hoping to get a price in the 4-1 range. A slight improvement from his 48 Beyer as a two year old makes him a player.
Race 3
This race was too confusing for me with the two Rycroft horses coming from California and no synthetic form. I thought #3 Interesting Times had a chance to wire the field but I have no idea about the surface. Likely passing on this race.
Race 4
This 7500$ claimer for non winners of 3 came up incredibly soft and I think it will take a lot to beat #5 Flash of Silver. He appears too fast for these; he will be loose on the lead; and has a trainer who dominates in claimers at Woodbine. I hate chalk but even I would say that 4/5 odds on this horse would be value. However, there is a chance he scratches to run on Thursday instead.
The only other horse I could make a case for is #2 Lauderdale. His last two races of the season were going two turns but he did earn his best career numbers and there is only one horse to beat in here. Perhaps he will be closer to the pace than usual if they go as slow as I expect. #1 Kissoffire was 23-1 when he won last time and earned a 74 Beyer, but can we trust that effort? I usually avoid betting horses who run 25-30 points higher than normal out of the blue. That race was probably an aberration. #5 Flash of Silver is a lone A in picks. His presence makes the race unplayable. However, if the horse scratches, I think it’s a crapshoot and would I would play # 2, 4,6 on all my tickets in that scenario.
Race 5
The fifth race came down to trips for me. Not much separates this good 10,000$ claiming field. What I would actually do is pay attention to the first four races and try to see how the track is playing. If having speed or the rail is advantageous, the favourite #1 Slip Kid is winning this. He is amongst the fastest in this race and has been consistent. However, he got beat in his first start last season and figures to get some pace pressure from #6 Weekend Wizard. #6 Weekend Wizard would be my top pick for many reasons: he has run in classes that are slightly better than these; his best numbers are fast, and he appears to be training lights out on the main Tapeta track. Perhaps he will be long gone when they turn for home and his winter races should making him fitter than the #1.
If the track is kind to closers, I would be more interested in #8 R U WatchingBud. He always kicks home nicely; has a very solid record, and his numbers fit. Will he get there in time? In multi-race wagers, I am using the best speeds with the best closer, my numbers read: #6,1,8.
Race 6
Pass Race for me from a win bet perspective. In multi-race wagers I would lean heavily on #6 Green Fleet. He is a deserving favourite who is making one of the biggest drops in class a horse can make: MSW to MCL. He likely needed the last race after being off for a full year and the winner from his latest(Golden Wave) came back to run a nice second in an Ontario-bred stakes race going 7furlongs. The only other horse I want to have somewhere on my tickets is #1 New Deal. His form could improve second time out and a 61 Beyer on synthetic last September as a two year old makes him mildly intriguing. #3 Virgil Caine is a longshot who ran better than it looked last time and has a jockey upgrade for his first stretch-out in distance. Perhaps on 20 cent backup tickets?
Race 7
The 7th features a salty veteran in Glenville Gardens. Today’s favourite was making up good ground last time out when going 6.5furlongs and now shows up on his favourite surface and distance(1mile). Even if his best days are likely behind him, he is a very likely winner of this race. #1 Be Vewy Vewy Quiet is decent but usually needs a race and I would watch him for next time. The #3 Does not want turf; #4 has terrible recent form; and #6 is not fast enough to win this.
We are left with #5 Solar. His gulfstream form is excellent and he should sit another good stalking trip in this race. The 4 year old might be getting good at the right time and I get the feeling he can improve again in this race. His last two Beyers give him a shot in this race if #2 Glenville Gardens is short of his best(as I expect). I will make a small win-place bet on #5 Solar if his odds are at least 3-1. Sticking exclusively with #2 and #5 in the picks.
Race 8
In the last race of the day I am pretty high on #4 Desert Poem because of her consistency and speed figures. She rarely runs a bad race on the Woodbine turf and faces a field she is suppose to beat. I can see Leo Salles sitting comfortably in third or fourth on the rail and making a run past tiring horses in the stretch. She will get the absolute dream trip stalking behind #2 Crumlin Queen and #3 Burbank Road while saving ground. I would be surprised if Burbank Road stays the distance and I think Crumlin Queen is an underneath type at best in here. Desert Poem should get first run on the closers Haniel(5) and Spider Dance(6) who I did not trust anyways.( because of the barn changes)
The closer I like best to round out the exacta and trifecta is #7 Alice’s War. She is a course and distance specialist who ran in a very salty field to begin her 2020 campaign. That was clearly a prep race and now she drops back down into her appropriate class level. I am going with #4 over numbers 7,5,2, and 6 in the trifecta. #4 Desert Poem is a win bet for me at 2-1 or higher. I will probably make my version of a killbet exacta keying #4 over 7, and 2 for 5 or 10$.