2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 3
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[Welcome to the third edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index hosted by The Daily Gallop. For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. This week’s edition of this feature is going to be rather brief as there has only been one Kentucky Derby Prep race, the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, since the second edition was made public. Furthermore, with two of the final two year old Derby prep races taking place this weekend in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack and the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos Race Course, there likely will be some significant changes made to both the BUY and SELL Lists and therefore I will be delving into another round of pedigree analysis for any of the new runners that make it onto either list in the feature that will debut the week of December 16th. However, there have been some major developments regarding some of the two years featured in the last edition of this piece that need to be addressed before each of these lists are revealed.
First and foremost, let’s discuss the Godolphin colt Maxfield. He was scratched from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at the beginning of November by the vets at Santa Anita with an apparent injury to his front hoof that trainer Brendan Walsh later confirmed to be a “minor foot bruise.” Yet it seems that perhaps that foot bruise was a bit more serious as Godolphin has since reported that Maxfield will not return to racing for the remainder of 2019, is likely to get a bit of a freshening down at Walsh’s winter base of operations in Florida and probably will not be seen again on the track competitively racing until February of 2020. With this news in hand, I have been forced to make the decision to remove Maxfield from the BUY List (he is not eligible to appear on the SELL List either) for the time being and will only restore his standing to either list next year if he produces a performance that warrants that sort of inclusion.
Also on the front of horses needing to be removed from either the BUY or SELL lists is the Bob Baffert trainee, Eight Rings. This colt had been slotted to run in this upcoming weekend’s G2 Los Alamitos Futurity with a major chance to redeem himself following his disastrous BC Juvenile Stakes outing. However, this week Baffert did the improbable (pun intended) and scratched Eight Rings from the list of potentials for that race (yet still leaving himself with two other solid contenders) and instead stating that Eight Rings will not race again until the Grade 2 San Vincente Stakes, February 9th at Santa Anita Park. Although it is unknown as to what prompted Baffert to remove his colt from contention for the Futurity, this scratch will be treated similar to as if Eight Rings had a minor injury and needed some time off for a freshening. Also given the fact that a number of prep races will have been run between now and February 9th, that creates ample opportunities for other two year olds and even newly turned three olds to put forth disappointing efforts that might surpass Eight Rings BC Juvenile performance. Thus Eight Rings will be removed from the top of the SELL List.
There is just a brief note on the Grade 3 Nashua champion Independence Hall. Although it had been suggested that the colt was going to run this Saturday in the Remsen Stakes, a stern two-turn nine furlong test for this rather precocious colt, trainer Michael Trombetta had serious reservations about his charge bouncing after the “massive effort” in the Nashua and instead has elected to not race him again until January 1st in the one mile Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct. This somewhat disheartening revelation has thus caused Independence Hall’s standing on the BUY List to slip, but only ever so slightly. For this colt to have attempted nine furlongs as a two year, when many of his other rivals are still trying to stretch out to eight and eight and a half furlongs, would have been a good indicator as to whether or not this colt was going to be a serious contender going forward and additionally whether or not his pedigree would allow him to achieve these longer route distances. Now it appears, we will have to wait several more months for these questions to be answered.
Finally, before releasing each of the lists for this week’s Futures Index, I’m going to briefly discuss the lone Kentucky Derby prep race that took place on last Saturday November 30th, the eight and a half furlong Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes run at Churchill Downs. A rather competitive field of some very talented two year olds lined up in the starting gates on Saturday evening to contest the two turn route over a very sloppy main track with the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner Tiz the Law and the Street Sense Stakes (Listed) hero South Bend as the stars. The Mike Maker trainee, New Eagle, a turf routing son of Street Boss making the transition back to dirt seized the initial lead out of the gates with both South Bend and Tiz the Law in close pursuit. New Eagle set a relatively pedestrian early pace which seemed to suit the field well as nearly all the runners had yet to contest a race over a wet track. The trio continued to race at the front of the pack with New Eagle leading the way and massive longshot Two Last Words moving up to join them on the backstretch and into the approach for the final turn. It was here that Tiz the Law got into trouble as his jockey Manny Franco soon found himself surrounded by other rivals with not much running room to maneuver and a colt that was reluctant to tip outside underneath him. At the same time, jockey Ricardo Santana Jr aboard the Steve Asmussen colt Silver Prospector began to make a bid to move into contention from mid-pack. As the field entered the stretch run, Silver Prospector nearly drew level with the now faltering New Eagle, South Bend dropped out of it completely and Tiz the Law was still stuck in-between rivals with no clear running lane. It was only within the final 1/16th of the race that Tiz the Law was able to burst free as a seam finally opened up for Franco; yet, the lead that he secured was short lived as he had used up much of his stamina earlier racing amongst rivals (or perhaps the sloppy going did him in) and simply had no response when Silver Prospector moved alongside of him and then easily drew away to win the race by nearly a length over the hard-charging massive longshot Finnick the Fierce who edged out Tiz the Law for second.
Had Tiz the Law won the Kentucky Jockey Club he would have moved straight to the top of the BUY List and undoubtedly made himself the prohibitive favorite for end of the year honors in the Eclipse Award Category for Two Year Old Males. Instead, his standing on the BUY List is going to plummet and Barclay Tagg and Sackatoga Stable are going to have to put some serious consideration into what they do next with this colt. Conversely, Silver Prospector’s win (while not particularly flashy in the speed figure department) was an incredibly solid effort that has landed him squarely amongst the Top 5 on the BUY List. Additionally, the performance by the previously undefeated South Bend was disappointing enough that this colt has now found himself positioned on the SELL List. I will admit that I was absolutely chuffed by Silver Prospector’s performance in that race and look forward to seeing when and where Asmussen races him next (likely in one of the three major prep races down at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans). Thus without further ado, let’s dive on in to this week’s Top 5 BUY contenders for both the BUY and SELL lists.]
BUY
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 3) Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 6-2-0-2; 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: 2) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 3-2-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
4 (Last Week: 5) Structor (Palace Malice-More Than Ready; Chad Brown; Jeff Drown & Don Rachel; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf* (G1); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 4) Independence Hall (Constitution-Cape Town; Michael Trombetta; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, Kathleen and Robert Verratti; 2-2-0-0; 1st in the Nashua Stakes* (G3); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
SELL
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 2) Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 4-1-1-0; 2nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: 3) Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 4-1-2-0; 2nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3); 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) South Bend (Algorithms-Old Trieste; Stanley Hough; Sagamore Farm LLC; 4-3-0-0; 6th in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: 4) Green Light Go (Hard Spun-Pleasantly Perfect; Jimmy Jerkens; Stronach Stables; 3-2-1-0; 1st in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Champagne Stakes (G1); 4 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 5) Storm the Court (Court Vision-Tejano Run; Peter Eurton; Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock; 4-2-0-1; DNF in the Del Mar Futurity* (G1), 3rd in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)