Turfway Park Friday March 29, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves the low level claimers, high brow humor, synthetic racing, and closing weekends. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
There is an early Pick 5 carryover tonight… winning ticket not provided. Bomb’s Away!
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 5000n2x 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
7-6-1-4
#7 Tiz Beauty towers over the rest of this field and I only have one concern about her winning this race: the eight day wheel back. She ran into a monster at this level eight days ago in Eyerish Inspired and virtually had no chance. Nothing else changes about her tonight and it looks like Godsey is trying to get one more win out of her this meet before it closes tomorrow. #6 Native Wonder is not without a chance, but I’m never excited about horses like this taking a break away from the races while remaining in training and her last three workouts aren’t exactly stellar.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 7500n3L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
6-3-5-9
#5 Senor Wilbur is moving up the ladder since his 3/2/19 win at the $5000 level here at Turfway. He loses the “bug” allowance as Virginia Tormey moves to another horse, a move that is strange for an apprentice. That said, he may just be getting a little better. He has a chance. #6 Buster Brown Boy lost all chances on 3/9/19 when he gave the field seven lengths out of the gate. Draw a line through that effort and his two previous Turfway efforts look pretty good. William Gowan is a smaller-volume trainer with good placement of his horses and he has this one dropping down the ladder tonight. #3 Blue Mesa beat a $15000 Turfway field on 2/22/19 before trying Oaklawn earlier in March. He was eased out of that race and now comes back at half the price. He also gets Abel Lezcano back up and all signs point to yes. This race looks like a two horse match race between the #6 and the #3. I’m with Buster Brown Boy.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000n2y 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
6-3-4-7
This looks to be a pretty salty little $5000 claimer. #3 Dream Park has been picking up some checks for Malcolm Franklin and Junior Godsey. Her last effort was even better than it looks in the form as she did a little dance coming out of the gate and still managed to win by five. Being inside in a sprint hasn’t done too many favors for Turfway runners, but she looks to be in good form. #4 Alluring Approval almost took a fall on 2/28/19 and it probably wouldn’t have mattered as she ran into RuleLikeCleopatra, she has gotten pretty good here at Turfway. She’ll need to take a step forward, but her 3/22/19 Turfway workout is pretty darn good by just about anyone’s standard. #6 Bang demonstrated her dominance in an onomatopoetic performance last time out for Ricky Short and Angel Serpa. She has done some serious improvement since coming to Turfway and I expect a little more tonight and her post certainly helps.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 5000b 6 F 4YO&Up
7-1-5-8
I may regret it, but I am going to play against #1 Supreme Value simply because she offers the complete opposite of her name. She certainly belongs here, but the inside draw isn’t going to do her any favors against this evenly-matched bunch. She looks to be the best on paper, De Leon chose her over another, and she is dropping in class, so she could easily win, but I won’t swallow her at a short price. De Leon jumped off #5 Double Deringer who absolutely could win this race. He has really found improvement since coming back to Turfway and he easily handled a similar field two weeks ago. He also possesses the perfect running style and post to take advantage of the inside favorite tonight. #7 On John lost by seven lengths in a $7500 claimer earlier this month where he drew just inside the winner. He gets the tactical benefit tonight in the rematch. He also beat Balizar, a pretty decent horse who ran a stout second place last night, in his race two weeks ago. These three have every right to win this race, but I’ll take the value of the outside draw of On John.
Race Five: 8:12 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
2-1-4-7
Early scratches have reduced this race to a field of six with a formidable ML favorite in owner/trainer Wesley Ward’s #2 Twelve Monarchs. I have seen this move way too many times not to know that Ward wins with these low-level maiden claimers at first asking. The workout pattern for her just screams of good intentions. She only has to beat five others to graduate tonight and the others don’t look all that appealing. If you would like to take a stab at beating Ward, #4 Semanya makes perfect sense, but her last was definitely a step in the wrong direction. #1 Rehearsal Dinner just missed against $5000 claimers two weeks ago and it looks like Luis Jurado is trying to get one more paycheck out of her before the close of the meet. She is the most likely threat to Twelve Monarchs.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Allowance 18500n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
2-3-1-4
Another six horse field, but this one is super salty as I can make a case for all except one. Luan Machado jumps off the last time winner Wesley Ward’s #3 East Coast Spring for Mike Maker’s #2 Red Hot Kitten. This is not a move you expect to see from a jockey vying for the riding title in the waning moments of the meet. He either knows that Red Hot Kitten is better or he is cultivating a relationship with the Ramseys and Mike Maker for future mounts. Both are smart moves. Neither horse has raced since winning a December MSW, and both have stayed in training with eerily similar workout times and patterns for this race. I honestly can’t separate them. They will both have to beat their elder #1 Ballston, who is shipping up from Florida for Danny Gargan. Let’s be honest, we don’t see too much of Mr. Gargan here at Turfway, so I have to believe there is a reason for his appearance. Her Florida races were against better fields than we see in Florence, but she hasn’t tried the all-weather track. Machado is a better jockey than Serpa; I’ll take Red Hot Kitten.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – MSW 18.5K 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
3-1-5-4
Scratches have thinned the field to five with a clear standout, #3 Lady Leah. I honestly don’t know what has happened to Rodney Prescott the past couple of weeks as he has been losing mounts left and right, including this one to Perry Ouzts. Perry jumps off the next most likely winner #5 Lune Rousse too. Lady Leah ran a nice third in a MSW on Jeff Ruby Stakes Day where she controlled the front end and was run down by a very good Bye Bye Bully’s. She won’t see anything near the caliber of that field here tonight. Dale Romans has entered #1 Accolady, and he gets Luan Machado in the irons. She hasn’t tried the all-weather track yet, but she has been facing better with horrible results. This Turfway race might be just what she needs to get on track. I’m not thrilled that Lady Leah hasn’t graduated in her first seven tries, but she looks much the best and her 3/20/19 workout tells me she is still sharp.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
4-1-9-3
With the scratch of #5 E Z Bonus, it becomes incredibly difficult not to single #4 Lake Girl. John McKee climbs back aboard as she takes a drop in class down from the $7500 level. Trainer Stephen Lyster has won at 50% this meet with 16 entrants; that’s not exactly a small sample size here at Turfway. Lake Girl is also 5/6 ITM in Florence, Y’all. All signs point to yes. Her biggest threat should be #1 Comecatchme, who she beat by three lengths just eight days ago.