Turfway Park Friday March 22, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves the Rebel Crew, show pools, beating Baffert horses, and new friends. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to night racing at Turfway Park… where I normally say “Bombs Away,” but tonight’s card is full of small fields and looks chalky to the Cheese Man. String some winners together, boys.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 18000 5 F 4YO&Up
2-5-6-1
This $18000 claimer looks to be a two horse race as #2 En Hanse and #5 Forerun tower over the rest of the field on most metrics. I much prefer Forerun’s post draw, but it might not make that much of a difference in this small field as they all should be able to make their own trip. I am going to play against Forerun because he appears to be a “need the lead” horse, and I am not so sure he gets it tonight. En Hanse also likes the lead, but he doesn’t appear to need it. He seems to be a little more versatile than Forerun, and I think that alone will give Luan Machado a few more options. Rodney Prescott likely could have ridden either of these horses and chose Forerun; this concerns me some, but I am going to play against him based on his last effort being near a career best. Eight year old horses typically don’t string two of those efforts together. If you would like to completely play against the chalk, I give #6 Salty Rim a puncher’s chance.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000 1 1/16 Mile 4YO&Up
2-6-1-5
Another small field, but this $5000 claimer is extremely evenly-matched and I really could make a case for any of these horses. #6 The Predictor has picked up some checks since moving to Turfway Park in late December, winning two races and finishing ITM in the other two. If he gets the same early lead he got in his last race, he very well may walk the dog on the front end again. #5 Captain Kitten will have something to say about that early lead as he has been gunning for the front since dropping to this level. I don’t think he is quite as good as his last Turfway effort on 1/24/19, but he should be in the mix and could compromise a free ride for The Predictor. The early pace battle should set this race up nicely for #2 Laflowmylaxbro. This 7YO gelding is 9/13 ITM at Turfway with five wins. He hasn’t gotten the best of it when he runs against $8000 claimers, but he is running his second race in a row against the lower level tonight. Samuel Bermudez stays aboard off the recent near miss on the front end and I expect him to sit in the garden spot and let the others fight it out on the engine. He should have first run coming home and I expect it to be enough against this lower level group of claimers.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000n1y 6 F 4YO&Up
7-3-5-4
I can’t swallow the 7/5 ML favorite #3 U S Citizen in this spot as there are far too many reasons for me to play against him. His figures put him in the mix since returning to Turfway, but he just doesn’t seem to have a nose for the wire anymore. I’ll let him beat me along with #5 Monday Confession. He hasn’t been much since getting claimed away from the Karl Broberg barn on 9/7/18. The trainer change hasn’t done this runner any favors. #7 Plain Tales is returning to the track after a couple of months off and his two recent Turfway workouts show me that owner/trainer Vernon Coyle may have him ready. I’m not super excited about this router returning to a sprint, as it may not be his preferred distance, but I would rather see him cutback in his return rather than go long. I’ll take my chances.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Allowance 18500n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
6-3-1-2
This allowance race turned out to be rather interesting even though only six horses were entered. #3 Ceduna has been an improving sort since the beginning of January and has every right to do so again tonight. I am not entirely sure why Prentice jumped off of him for #4 Top Credentials as he is the only horse I give no chance of winning. There must be a back story as Ceduna has every right to in this race. I am going to fade the two 3YOs running against their elders this time of year, so that leaves me on #6 Cardiac Kitten. He made a pretty solid debut here at Turfway on 12/1/18 only to fire a clunker on 12/15/19. Wesley Ward and the Ramseys decided to give him the ultimate equipment change since his last race and his 3/11/19 workout is good enough to think he may just fire again tonight.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 5000n1x 1 Mile 4YO&Up
6-7-1-2
Early scratches have reduced this race to a field of six with a formidable ML favorite #1 Copus. His last two races at these same conditions are plenty good enough to win tonight for owner/trainer William Stinson, Jr. His last two races were much better than his previous year’s running lines and it is a lot to ask of a 10YO to continue such improved form, especially on the front end where he likes it. #7 Lizzy’s Lure will probably take it to Copus up front, setting up an interesting speed duel between these two claimers. The 10YO might get gassed in a third big effort and Lizzy’s Lure definitely got gassed last time out. I think #6 Mr. Haire will get the pace he needs to steal this race at the wire. Godsey has good numbers as a trainer and this gelding wouldn’t be returning to the track after his last DNF effort if he wasn’t okay. I’m going to draw a line through 3/2/19 and trust new jockey Abel Lezcano to bring him home.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 15000n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
3-1-8-6
I’m not trying to start any rumors, but I need to ask an honest question, did Cipriano Contreras and Rodney Prescott have a disagreement? Prescott was scheduled to ride Rated R Superstar in the Essex at Oaklawn last Saturday and was replaced, for whatever reason, by Walter De La Cruz. We all know Rated R Superstar won, so what gives? Prescott is off #3 Escalera, a horse he has ridden every race with some success since Contreras claimed him on 11/15/18. Now Prescott is off Escalera for #5 Obtained, an inferior foe on paper. Something has to be amiss as Escalera has a nice chance of winning this race with the projected speed duel up front between #1 Tomahawk Kitten and #8 Mustang Cat. Mustang Cat broke his maiden at the MC $15000 level in his last race, but I can’t play him on top in his first effort against winners. Tomahawk Kitten fits the part, but he has been nipped at the wire in his last two races after being controlling speed on the front end. He’ll have company tonight from Mustang Cat, thus setting the race up for the closing Escalera.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 40000n2x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
1-2-4-6
Scratches have thinned tonight’s feature to a five horse affair after the connections of #3 Welles Crowther decided to sit this one out. It’s hard to know what to expect in the return to races of #2 Cash Call Kitten as he has been away for just over a year. Mike Maker has put a string of works into him that indicate he should be ready, but I usually play against these types off of the long layoff. Let the tote be your guide; if he’s live, the board always shows it for the Ramseys and Maker. #1 Hard to Be Good is plenty good enough to win this one on the front end, but it looks like #5 Truth Be Tolled will keep him company. This Jeffrey Greenhill horse had his way with an OC $25000 field on Jeff Ruby Stakes day, but looks to be a notch below others in this race. #6 Get Tough absolutely crushed a field of $7500 claimers the day he was claimed away from Tommy Drury. This is his first appearance after that claim and he goes way up the ladder for rarely-seen connections. He does keep Malcolm Franklin aboard, but it’s hard for me to imagine this is a positive trainer move as Drury is very solid. I’ll take Hard to Be Good as I am going to let Cash Call Kitten beat me after the long layoff.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
1-2-3-7
It’s hard to get too excited over most of this field of MC $7500 runners. For me, #2 Viva Per Lei should be plenty good enough as she has recently been picking up checks for her connections at this level. John McKee stays aboard and she’s trying again just three weeks later. She is the most logical choice, but her running style indicates she may prefer some early pace. #3 Coronela will likely provide some early pace as her last three running lines show she wants the front end. She hasn’t been quite good enough and she hasn’t exactly been laying down scorching fractions. All of that said, it has to be the first time starter #1 Quickasakitten, no? The other part of the Ramsey entry scratched for Wesley Ward leaving the Mike Maker half in the race. Her workout preps aren’t amazing, but they are likely good enough and I am encouraged Maker is starting her at a mile rather than shorter. If the tote lights up early, she’s your girl. If not, I would prefer Viva Per Lei.