Turfway Park Saturday January 4, 2020
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves new potatoes, new friends, New Kids on the Block, and New Year’s resolutions. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 5000 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
11-6-1-2
Bottom level maiden claiming races are always such a joy to handicap, and I am being serious. Being creative and looking for interesting angles and/or changes can result in a rather nice score. The best filly in this race, #1 Headlining, has drawn the rail which makes her a play-against for me. Sure, she could win, but she’d be bucking the Turfway trend of losers on the rail in a sprint. #2 Lady David looks like she will try for the lead under regular jockey Sonny Leon and owner/trainer Eric Reed. She has run a few races good enough to beat this weak field, but she will also need a little racing luck to get clear and win on the engine. Horses at this level usually aren’t lucky or versatile. #11 Analyze This Cat has faced this type of field in her last two races here at Turfway Park and is the most likely winner. Jockey Alan Garcia stays aboard after a near miss on 12/26/19 and her experience over the Turfway track shows that she doesn’t hate the strip. Her outside post is also a huge advantage in a field like this. She will likely be the post-time favorite, so we won’t make a lot of win money, but we should be able to single her in the Pick Five. The best three apprentice jockeys Turfway has to offer are all riding in this race on long shots. The bug weight allowance can often make a huge difference in a low-level claimer and all three of these pilots (Virginia Tormey, Joseph Ramos, and Crystal Conning) have won some races in December. The interesting horse of these three is #6 Regal Power at 50/1. The statistics don’t support my interest, but the changes sure do.I don’t hate the removal of the hood, I’m thrilled to get Conning and her seven-pound discount, the drop down the ladder is extremely realistic, and the removal of Lasix is surely being done for a reason. It might be a lot to ask of this filly, but this is level where she will get her picture taken if she ever accomplishes that task and I’ll play to win at any price more than 25/1.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n3L 6 1/2 F 4YO&Up F&M
10-4-1-5
#1 Factress has everything going in her favor for this race except for the dread rail draw. Trainer Genaro Garcia places his stable in spots they can win, bug-boy and last race winning jockey Joseph Ramos stays in the irons, Giant’s Causeway is in the dam’s side of the pedigree so she should like the poly-track, and she has been on the steady improve since the barn change on 3/8/19. That post, though. Woof!I also like most everything about #4 Boots n’ Battle. This 5YO mare didn’t make it to the track until August of her fourth year, but she is headed in the right direction now as she has won her last two races. Though she hasn’t tried an all-weather track in her racing career, she has some Dynaformer in her, so she should like the footing. #10 Christian Miss probably needed her last race as she was coming in off the shelf for two months. She was a game 7YO mare on 12/26/19 when she lost against a similar field going a half panel shorter. She will be a factor tonight from the far outside, but jockey Joseph Ramos jumping off her for Factress may speak volumes about her chances. That said, the jockey made his choice before the post draw and she picks up the leading Turfway jockey in Albin Jimenez.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 7500n2L 1 Mile 4YO&Up
10-1-2-5
I got really excited when I handicapped this race because I saw a Kitten horse that I rally don’t think can win and I wanted to beat it short odds and crowd support; the problem is that most of the horses in this race are as equally dismal as #1 Tomahawk Kitten. The Kitten doesn’t look so bad after all. I’m still not playing a 1/25 career horse, but he’ll still beat me coming off the shelf as I won’t have him on my tickets. #2 Comin’ Round is almost as unsuccessful as our Kitten as he is 1/21 in his career. I must admit that I am a sucker for a first-time gelding, so I could see some improvement, but he’ll need his career best race without his equipment to get his picture taken. #5 Taranto took fifteen tries in the maiden claiming ranks to finally graduate in his last race on 12/19/19 here at Turfway. The problem is that he still didn’t finish first at the wire, so I’m not so sure he knows he won, and jockey John McKee jumps off. The plus side to Taranto is that most of his races fit against par speed, but he is facing winners for the first time. #10 Sunday Scaries is the choice of the previously mentioned John McKee and he looks to have improved in his second straight Turfway Park start and has every right to continue the improvement in his third stat of his current form cycle. He’s not very sexy as the 2/1 ML favorite, but he makes the most sense in this field.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 8000 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
7-6-5-3
#5 War Eagle’s Love moves up in class after her 12/5/19 Turfway Park victory against a slightly lower level of restricted claimers. That effort was good enough to win at tonight’s level, but I wonder how she will respond, especially since she wasn’t that good here at Turfway last spring. Leading jockey Albin Jimenez even jumps off her for the Ronald Brown trained 2/1 ML favorite #6 Catty Krys. Brown is 6/12 ITM with four winners since Turfway Park opened their winter meet and she should have every right to improve in her second start of this form cycle. She also has some Forestry in her, so she should continue to like the poly-track even though this is only her second start on the synthetic. She’s been knocking around the Indiana/Kentucky circuit all year around this level and has even been claimed for $10K a couple of times. She belongs at this level of competition, if not better. #7 Bourbon Girl didn’t make her on-track debut until August of her 3YO year and she struggled to find her way in the beginning before stringing together three wins in her last three contests. She easily handled a $15K claimer seventeen days ago so I wonder why she is dropping to this level of open claimer today. I loved her morning workouts leading up to her Turfway debut and the maintenance work since her last victory might even tighten her up a bit tonight. It could also mean that something is amiss. John McKee stays aboard, however, so I think she is fine.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 5000n3L 6 1/2 F 4YO&Up
8-9-7-11
#8 Regal Look appears to be a strong standout, and possibly a horizontal bet single, in tonight’s fifth race for the $5K claimers. This gelding hasn’t really shown a nose for the wire throughout his career as he has only won two races from his twenty career starts, albeit against tougher competition. He is already making his third Turfway Park appearance this meet, but I like the move back to a sprint. He was the best horse in the 12/5/19 Turfway sprint where he dawdled leaving the gate giving the leaders eight lengths before closing like a freight train down the lane. These conditions fit him like a glove.Trainer Ronald Brown has consistent $5K claimer #9 Muny Me Too entered in his second straight synthetic sprint after spending the summer turf routing against this level at Indiana. He always seems to be around the wire earning his keep, but I wonder about his guts as he has made a habit of giving up the lead late. I’ll key him underneath in my exotics.
Race Six: 8:42 post – MC 7500 6 1/2 F 3YO Fillies
9-entry-6-3
On paper, this field of newly minted 3YO fillies is lackluster. The Ramsey entry of #1 Headline Kitten and #1A Smarty Artie is the ML favorite at 3/1, but that is primarily off the relative strength of Smarty Artie and the reputation of the connections and the trainers. Judging by the morning workouts, Headline Kitten doesn’t look like the type of filly that will win at first asking so her inclusion is basically a gift. Smarty Artie finished third against a similar field on 12/21/19 here at Turfway, so she obviously figures, especially with Albin Jimenez back aboard. We should get paid if we beat this entry, so I am looking elsewhere. #6 Larry’s Baby ran a decent race against $75K claimers on the Saratoga turf on 8/25/19 before completely whiffing last out at Churchill Downs. Her recent workouts since the move away from the D. Wayne Lukas barn haven’t been much, but the Saratoga race makes her a viable option to upset the entry. Jockey Julie Burke’s only mount of the night is on the wily owner/trainer Joe Deegan’s #9 Almighty War. She debuted against $30K claimers here at Turfway Park on 12/12/19 where she had a bad start, gained decent position, and then gave way going a mile. The post position and the shortening should help her tonight and she has some Arch in her pedigree, which is a plus.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Claiming 12500 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
5-4-8-7
#8 Lady Leah is bred to love the synthetic surface with Giant’s Causeway and Kitten’s Joy in her pedigree and she certainly ran like it early in her career. She broke her maiden here at Turfway, but that graduation wasn’t even her best effort in Florence Y’all. She was collared at the wire here in a one-mile MSW on 3/9/19 that would absolutely air this group. The problem is her lack of improvement as she’s aged. She’s going to the front and going to play “catch me if you can” again today. #4 Musabaqa has done most of her best work on the front end as well, but she has shown more tactical speed in her fifteen-race career. She has used different tactics in her past two races against better horses, but she tired and faded in her last race on 12/9/19 at Mahoning Valley. If she takes to the poly-track at all, she can wire this field even with the front runner Lady Leah’s presence. Which leaves me to my very boring top selection: #5 No Interest. This granddaughter of Storm Cat won at these exact conditions here at Turfway Park on 12/7/19 off the shelf and she should improve off that effort. Jockey Albin Jimenez will love to see the #4 and #8 duel up front to set the stretch up for her late kick.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000b 6 F 4YO&Up
4-6-3-2
#3 Kid Perfect has damn near fallen off the claiming ladder with this precipitous drop in competition. This gelding last won at the $17,500 level on 9/4/19, so I am unsure as to why he has been entered for a “fire sale” and I intent to fade this red flag. Besides the fact that he has never tried the poly-track in his career, he completely fits against this field and towers over most of them, but he’ll burn every on of my tickets if he wins. #4 U S Marshal tried the Turfway strip for the first time in a nice win on 12/11/19. This eight-year-old has been an all-weather warrior throughout his career and it looks like owner/trainer Ronald Brown is willing to lose him for another paycheck. He had his way with a $5,000n2x field and soundly defeated a next out winner. He is shortening up to a sprint after nine straight routes, but this hard-knocker should use the cut-back to his advantage since he wants the lead. #6 Stay in Yo lane is a 4YO gelding heading in the right direction. Owner/trainer Bill Morey has cashed a check with him in his last four races since acquiring him in his barn, but that has been against inferior runners. I have some pause playing him on top as he was all-out to win by a nose on 12/18/19, but I would rather see a 4YO pull this trick than an 8YO.