Turfway Park Saturday December 21, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves birthdays, birthmarks, birthstones, and birthday cake. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 15000 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
1-8-7-6
#6 World Tax War made his Turfway Park debut against a MC $7500 field on 12/11/19 and appears to have woken up a bit over the all-weather surface. He ran on the front end and kept to task well enough to earn a minor check for trainer Conor Murphy. He gets the hood for the first time tonight and adding a little extra distance should also help his chances. One must wonder if this 5YO will ever see the winner’s circle, but this field isn’t exactly full of monsters. #7 Tallestofthetall moves away from the Danny Gargan barn to Mike Maker’s stable for his first start. The combination of jockey Martin Garcia, Maker, and the Ramsey’s silks won’t get us any value, but his first two races were against better competition and they are likely good enough to beat this field. #8 Rock On Kitten almost won two races at the Fairgrounds earlier this year, but he has been slowly moving in the wrong direction ever since. He has been facing much better competition than most in this field and is now with his third trainer this year. Ben Colebrook is moving him down the ladder quite a bit tonight and he gets the services of Declan Cannon.Trainer Ian Wilkes doesn’t bring too many to Turfway Park, but the ones that show up usually run well as evidenced by his 3/4 ITM statistic this meet. He has #1 Illidan dropping in for a tag for the first time after making three MSW appearances for Green Lantern Stables and gives Turfway Park leading jockey Albin Jimenez the leg up. His 10/19/19 Keeneland race is plenty good enough to air this field, but there is a question as to whether he will like the polytrack.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n1x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
2-6-8-1
#6 Sperling finished a distant second place in a similar race here at Turfway Park on 12/11/19 but he was never within three lengths of the winner. Owner/trainer James Watkins is wheeling him right back ten days later for another crack at this level of competition with jockey John McKee back in the bike. He fits with these, but he will need to improve a touch to get his picture taken tonight. #8 Tapnfire loved the all-weather surface but he has yet to try the Turfway strip. This 9YO ran plenty of races good enough in 2018 to take this field down, but his 2019 campaign has been rather lackluster. If you choose to believe he likes the all-weather track rather than being a horse off form, he fits as well. #2 I Got It looks to be much the best in this field, and he finished a close second place in his last Turfway Park race on 12/5/19 against a tougher group of $5000 restricted claimers. He lost to War Eagle’s Love that night and he is no Turfway slouch, so it wasn’t a bad race. Trainer Ricky Short does a nice job placing his horses and this one has shown some affinity for the Turfway poly. He should be primed for another quality effort tonight.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000n2y 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
10-7-2-4
#2 Old Centre has been running in tougher conditions this year, but most of those races have been at Belterra, so we have reason to doubt her quality. It should be noted that she is 2/2 here at Turfway Park including a win on 2/22/19 in similar conditions (just a half panel shorter). I am a little concerned about the recent freshening as trainer Nancy Adams doesn’t normally win with this move, so she might need a race before she is around at the wire. #7 Rulelikecleopatra has been a solid mare throughout her career and she has been a fixture at Turfway Park for quite some time. Trainer Doug Danner doesn’t make many mistakes and he is one of the best small-barn trainers here in Florence, Y’all. She’s been off since May, but her last two Turfway Park workouts indicate she can probably win off the shelf. #10 Daneira has won three times on the all-weather surface, but all of those trips were at Arlington Park. Her last race is a total toss-out because of the muddy dirt, but she was facing stiffer competition before that 10/11/19 dud. Trainer William Morey has already won three times in five starts in five starts this meet and her string of recent works suggests she’s tight enough to wire this group under bug-girl Crystal Conning. The weight relief and the equipment change tell me she will be winging it on the front end and playing a game of “catch me if you can.”
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 15000n2L 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
3-6-11-10
It’s tough for me to envision a scenario where even money ML favorite #3 Spirogyra doesn’t handle this group of $15000 claimers. I have a little concern that new trainer Mike Maker is dropping him in class immediately after being claimed on 11/15/19 at Churchill Downs, so there could be something amiss. The three workouts for the new barn say he’s fine and even likes the Turfway polytrack, but there is a bit of a red flag. I would normally try to beat this type of runner, but I can’t find a worthy contender. I would have taken a stab with #13 Portobello’s Hero, but he didn’t draw in from the AE list.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 7500n2L 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
10-8-2-9
In a race with no real stand-out, the ML favorite #8 Sunday Scaries makes perfect sense. He ran against better here at Turfway Park on 12/6/19 and his effort was much better than the way it reads in the PPs. He gave the field way too much of a head start and had way too much to do, but he never gave up and came running down the lane. The extra distance should also help. His price will likely be deflated, but he can win. #2 Icy Street didn’t run a step at Churchill Downs on 11/15/19 against a much better field that this, but I can forgive that effort as it was on dirt rather than his preferred turf footing. I don’t know if he will take to the all-weather track, but all of his 2018 efforts on the sod would air this field. His recent form is so dirty that we may actually get a bit of a price on him. #10 Lucky Lookin was claimed away from Robert McCutchen in his last race on 12/4/19 here at Turfway Park. He was placed on the shelf for three months after chasing his second in against tougher at Colonial Downs. Now in the Ronald Brown barn, he has every right to improve in his second start and Brown is effective with horses first after the claim. I would like to see a more prominently used jockey aboard, but we can’t have everything.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 12500 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
1-8-5-4
If you’re looking for value hidden in the form, #5 Sour Peach is your play. She is 8/10 lifetime ITM here at Turfway Park, but her last five races have all been at Belterra. She is running at her preferred distance over her preferred footing with her regular jockey, Azael De Leon. She has been away from the track for three months, but she has appeared five times in the morning here at Turfway, so she’s ready. My biggest worry is the jump in class, but this trainer doesn’t have too many horses in her barn, so I’m sure she is too keen on losing her early in the meet. #8 Flirty hasn’t been much since her Presque Isle 6/20/19, but she was plenty good enough to win at this level before that start and she has been facing better horses than most of these runners. Her 12/11/19 Turfway Park start was against far tougher competition and she completely gave up in the stretch. Bug-boy Joseph Ramos climbs aboard tonight, and this filly should appreciate the weight and class relief. #1 Lady Leah hated the Churchill dirt in her first start away from the Kim Hammond barn. This 3YO has raced twelve times this year including breaking her maiden at this distance on the Turfway Park polytrack on 3/29/19. I am forgiving the last race and relying on her previous form over the sod and poly.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Allowance 48500n3L 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
10-8-1A-6
When the dust settles, Wesley Ward’s #8 Infinite should be the post tie favorite, but there are a few in this allowance race that merit a chance. It will take some effort to beat Ward’s gelding as he is 5/5 lifetime ITM with two of those races here at Turfway Park, but I have some doubts about the quality of his wins as he was allowed to walk the dog in both of his victories. I don’t think he is going to get away with an easy lead tonight as Genaro Garcia’s #1A Augie is quick enough to provide a lot of pressure on Infinite, if not good enough to make the lead. Augie may even have some tactical advantage as he doesn’t need the lead, but I have some doubts as to whether or not he likes to win as he has finished second nine times in his twenty starts.Tommy Drury’s #10 Stay Happy would love for these two to have a heated duel so he can use his closing kick to run them all down in the lane. Both of his Churchill Downs races are better than they appear in the PPs as his 11/15/19 race was a little wide and crooked and his 9/27/19 race had four runners win next out. Drury doesn’t come to Turfway unless he is loaded for bear.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – MC 7500 6 1/2 F 2YO Fillies
13-2-8-10
The last race on tonight’s card is a low-level maiden claimer for baby girls that doesn’t appear to have a standout in the form. #2 Happy Peddler has shown some early turn of foot against much better competition at Churchill Downs in her first two starts but she hasn’t been able to hold on for any accolades. She gets the services of bug boy Javier Padron-Barcenas and she should enjoy the seven-pound weight break on the front end. Wesley Ward’s #8 Smarty Artie is sure to take a pounding at the windows, especially with leading jockey Albin Jimenez aboard for the first time. Ward takes the blinkers off and she has had four respectable workouts over the Turfway Park track since her first start. #10 Teton Thai didn’t run a step in her first three starts earlier this year, but she might have woken up on the sod at the Pea Patch on 8/30/19. She has been off since then, so there are plenty of reasons to doubt her chances tonight. I expect her to be on the front end running with Happy Peddler. It’s not going to take much to win this race, so I am hoping that FTS #13 My Discreet Secret draws into the field from the AE list for trainer John Hancock. Her last three workouts don’t look like much, but her 10/17/19 Ellis Park workout from the gate might be all we need to see to know that she is good enough to graduate at first asking against this group. The outside post will be hard to overcome, but jockey Declan Cannon takes the reins for her first race when he surely could have stayed aboard Teton Thai.