Race 1- 1st #7 Personal Cat ran bad last out but prior than that had actually been doing well- had one bad race in between some OK ones. She’s won at Turfway before, and reunites with a winning jockey.
2nd #9 Pomera has Rogelio Miranda on her, and he’s an up and coming rider who takes advantage of his mounts (in a good way), and has done well in KY. I am curious about this gal as she’s never raced on the synthetic before.
3rd #8 Pink For Me has been pushed pretty hard this year- 19 starts and no wins which I don’t like to see. But two seconds and five thirds is good enough for this spot. She has a record of 11-1-3-3 on the synthetic.
Race 2- 1st #5 Boom Box is going to be the one to beat. Dropping to the bottom, never raced at this level, likes the synthetic, but has seen his better days. He hasn’t won since last September.
2nd #2 Improviser has five second place finishes this year. Never ran on this surface, but his Beyer numbers he has been running lately are good enough for him to win this race.
3rd #11 Ray’s Away I’d like a bit more if he was on the turf, he’s got a decent record running over the grass. Malcolm Franklin rides and he’s an excellent Turfway jockey so let’s take this one for third.
Race 3– 1st #13 Pistol Box (AE) I really hope he gets in, I think he’s the best one in the field. Runs close to the best Beyers, closer losing margins than the rest of these guys. I find it interesting that he ran better at Churchill for $15,000, than for $5,000 at Indiana Grand.
2nd #5 Finished once looked like he had a little bit of talent a year ago when he finished 3rd for a $60,000 MSW at Churchill, but he hasn’t showed any will since then. Interesting how he ran 8th in Jan at Gulfstream and got a 73 Beyer. Don’t usually see horses run that way and get that high of a number.
3rd #6 Testy Kitten has showed no desire to be a racehorse and I am quite surprised the Ramsey’s have hung onto him this long. I am curious how he will feel about the surface change and the big class drop. Change could help this horse.
Race 4- 1st #2 Conquest Sorcerer is 9-2-1-2 on the synthetic, which will work to hopefully win this race. She was a $65,000 purchase two years ago at the Keeneland November sale. This filly also runs well on the turf, I’d rather see her on that, but this will have to do.
2nd #5 Bela Menina hasn’t won in almost two years and that concerns me, but if you take a look at her synthetic record, she’d maybe have a chance of hitting the board. Eleven starts this year and she’s only been on the board once.
3rd #6 Career Girl has never tried the synthetic, and hasn’t been on the board at all this year, but maybe here we can make things better. By English Channel out of a Bluegrass Cat mare, she’s raced twenty-eight times and has three wins.
Race 5– 1st #5 Alien Season is hands down the one to beat, as he just kicked butt in an allowance race at Aqueduct, and that was a big step up from the race before that, which was a smaller allowance race. He’s won half of his starts, the only thing that raises a slight warning bell is his layoffs. Wesley Ward is 50% in the first week of the meet.
2nd #6 Birds Gone Wild (call me crazy for taking a 12/1 for second) but if you take a look at this guy, he’s been running the best Beyer numbers of his career and they are consistent with this field. He’s won 16 of 57 races, which is good.
3rd #1 Sights and Sounds has Rogelio Miranda aboard, and five back ran a 95 Beyer. I liked him at Churchill last out and he was close to where he needed to be, he’s trying a new surface, and the distance isn’t his favorite but it’s doable to hit the board.
Race 6– 1st #9 Riddlemeree has two seconds in a row, and Malcolm Franklin has been on her for both of those races. One of her wins is here.
2nd #4 Vida Leva Eu has four second place finishes, this is a good level for her. Machado is 24% which is decent so far, he’s never been on her before.
3rd #6 Loran Holiday (ARG) is going to the bottom, which is needed based on recent efforts. I’d like her even more if she could get back on the turf where her two wins have came from.
Race 7– 1st #1 No Fault is in a good place right now, she’s been in tough company lately. Never tried the synthetic surface and I am curious to see how she will perform here. Victoria Oliver did very well at Keeneland and Churchill.
2nd #10 Air Turbulence is an English Channel filly who really likes to be on the turf, and she’s had a good year this year, 9-2-2-1. Trainer Kim Hammond has done good the first week into the meet.
3rd #6 She Might Tell has one third place on the synthetic surface in her only race. Again, another horse who would probably be on the turf but she is more than capable of putting on a third place finish.
Race 8– 1st #2 Lake Girl wasn’t good enough for Kentucky Downs or Churchill, but she fits here nicely as she’s dropping down from $15,000 to $7,500. Also recently worked a bullet, Victor Lebron is riding.
2nd #9 Queen Alexandrina is taking one heck of a class drop from $50,000 down to the bottom of the barrel, after losing by forty three lengths last out. Ken McPeek and Rogelio Miranda team up to run the Afleet Alex daughter.
3rd #1 Flion Lynn Lion is really, really, difficult to take based on the recent races, and the layoffs in between every race are a major red flag. I hope the class drop, better jockey, and surface change help. Wesley Ward is at 50% at the meet so far.