Turfway Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, March 7, 2019, by Shawn Murphy


Welcome to another glorious night at Turfway Park. Not a bad card tonight some nice chances to make some money.

Race 1

7-2-1


7- looks like the controlling pace in the Thursday night opener and should be able to roll from this outside post. Her speed figures out class this field and shortening up and distance should play in her favor.

2- this three-year-old will show some value in here. She has run well in her last two once she was reduced in price.

1- Great race last out at the same distance for a high percentage outfit. Looks to sit just off the pace of the seven and should fire in the lane.

Race 2

3-7-2


3- if you throw at his last race over a speed favouring track the rest don’t look bad compared to the competition tonight. This is a very weak field and I see the three picking up the pieces in the lane and makes a good value play in the second. Also first time gelding which doesn’t hurt or maybe it hurt for him.

7- Will probably be the favourite and show speed from the outside as he did in his previous start. He may just be able to take the lead and go.

2- i’m throwing a dart at this first time starter as nothing else appeals to me. His work out on November 29 was very good in comparison to the classy faces tonight.

P.s I think the five will take lots of money but this four-year-old is running for the first time with blinkers and with a low percentage trainer, I would not be putting any of my money on this horse.

Race 3

3-2-9


3-I like the rider change on this five-year-old and like that she shows good early speed. My main angle here is the jockey switch and the early speed.

2- this mare has been in this classification for a long time but always seems to come late and get a piece of the action. Not crazy about a win bet on her but I can see her easily getting in the top three.

9- should be another value play to get in to the top three at a very good price. I’m looking tonight to see this seven-year-old finish well as her last few have been at a mile.

P.s The five will take some action tonight after two straight wins by close margins. I’m not a fan at all of this horse as she is moving up once again in class and not a big fan of the rider. I will not be putting any money on this one.

Race 4

2-3-4


2- A great race on paper as many of these have the ability to win and therefore there should be some good value to be had. Prescott is three for three on this horse and there’s no reason he can’t win tonight. His speed figures aren’t as high in comparison to some in the field but I really like his running style with this bunch.

3- The trainer change last time out was huge, and this horse ran very well for the new trainer. This is a high percentage outfit and if he runs back to his last race should be there at the end.

4- here’s another one in here so you may get value. He will show good speed from the gate and I would have my fingers crossed that you can stay in the top three by the time they at the wire.

Race 5

7-8-5


7- His race two back versus similar was very good as he won quite easily. You can ignore his last race as he stretched out and doubled in price to things that went against his ability.

8- Looks like a big stretch here but he halves in value which will be a nice break for this five-year-old. I see him being just outside the leaders early and hopefully having some energy in the lane.

5- another going route to sprint in here and I love his last race and the fact that he has won at the distance. The connections have done well in the past with this style.

Race 6

7-5-2


7- I really like my top three picks and favour the outside horse. Very high percentage trainer and jockey in here and if they have the same race as they did last time should win easy. There’s $160,000 purchase has been a disappointment and it looks like they will keep dropping this horse in value to collect some return on the large investment.

5- they claim this colt two back for the same price as he will run today. I like the trainer ride or a combo and you should see a much better outing today.

2- Maker sent this horse to the fairgrounds last month hoping he would race as well as he did at Turfway. I like the fact the horses dropping down in price tag and is back at the track where you had the most success.

Race 7

3-5-2


3- I love the connections here with this September 2016 $300,000 purchase. He did not run too poorly his first race out after having problems at the gate. I think if they’ve cured the gate problems you’ll see a different race out of this for-year-old this evening.

5- this longtime maiden has had many chances to break through And will be looking again this evening. There really isn’t much to look at in this race and I’m picking this one based on some past speed figures.

2- Who knows? This first timer from Dunkirk has shown some nice works leading up to his first start as a four-year-old. The low percentage connections are a concern.

Race 8

11-7-6

11- I’m not thrilled with the post position here but there’s not much else in the race. She should be able to get out in good position and Rate. She has run well for Prescott and I look for the same here.

7- A bit of a bomb but you have to pick somebody. Horse looks good but the connections don’t. I like her races at Turfway in November and December where she went the distance and finish well. A nice value play to finish off the evening.

6- even though this horse is a morning line 6 to 5 I can’t see her winning.. This horse is been all around the country and is even raised in some stake events but her current form is far from appealing.

Good luck and giddy up

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