Race 1
2-8-1
2-I haven’t had a chance to handicap the last couple Thursdays because the weather conditions but here we go for this week. In the first there’s definitely some value play, let’s start with the two – will be looking to come from behind in this race and has done so quite well in the past should get at least 10 to 1 and I’m looking for her to come flying down the stretch.
8- another that should show value has been off since December 22 but the trainer has great numbers for this type of layoff. Should be forwardly placed by top jock early on.
1- yet another they could surprised in the first race this evening. The last two at Turfway we’re not as bad as they look on the form and should get in the mix with this group.
Additional notes- I feel the three will be over bet based on his last two races at Turfway this is a wide open race and should show some horses coming on down the stretch to take the win money. The three and the five along with the six will volley for the lead and therefore look for others to come off the pace if the track plays well and does not play speed.
Race 2
8-4-5
8- The logical pick here based on her last race in the big Drop from the previous races at Turfway. Trainer shows good numbers as does the jockey the set up seems perfect for this race as she will come just off the pace to win at the wire.
4- A bit of a longshot here ran a great race January 5 and looking for the same tonight came off the pace in a speed favouring track that night and shows a strong run.
5- this Philly has thrown in some nice Races at Turfway recently but threw in a clunker last race out on the speed favouring track. She can finish while others in this race while others if they get pressured they cannot so looking forward to be there at the end.
Race 3
2-6-7
2- A bit of swinging for the fence here as the two has not raised in a very long time but her trainer does well with long layoffs. I think this horse was meant to be something but is not showing anything yet on the track. This field is very weak and I’m looking for speed out of the gate and to take command of the race.
6- an average first time starter with good connections and based on the rest of the field she could win at first asking.
7- has been a maiden for a long time, I can’t see her waiting but she may be able to be good enough to hit the board in this week group.
Notes- In this race you’re dealing with some very weak maiden Phillies. There are some horses look good on form but come out for trainers or riders with very poor records. I tend to stay away from this type of connection as they are very low percentage winners. If a rider is zero for 55 or a trainer is one for 43 I stay away as far as I can and if they win congratulations to them but I won’t have a ticket on them no matter what their odds.
Race 4
6-7-4
6- Cuts back a half a furlong from her race on December 15. Ran very well that night and as you can see from her race line there is almost 7 lengths back to the third-place finisher. Has followed up with some great workouts and looking for a win tonight.
7- Second out for this well bred Filly from Claiborne farms. Her trainer has done so well during this meet and has a very high percentage with maiden second starts.
4- another second time starter from strong connections. Had a troubled start in her only start of her career and looking for progress this evening.
Notes- I feel my top three picks will have a winner in them as they all have strong connections and strong angles. I will use all three in horizontal wagers with both the six and the seven as A plays.
Race 5
10-5-3
10- another doozy of a race. I like the 10 as I feel she will show lots of speed from the outside in this abbreviated race. The connections do not show strong numbers but the apprentice with the weight advantage could clear the field. Expect a big price.
5- this three-year-old comes from mid pack and shows a big drop-down in class. The distance should suit and does show some early speed back in the fall. Make note that the trainer shows a high percentage for horses coming off second time 45 to 180 day rests.
3- is a bit more logical in here drop slightly and cuts back in distance. She seems to like getting in the money but rarely hits the top spot.
Notes- this is not a race to be opening up your bankroll, you might as well get the dartboard out.
Race 6
5-4-3
5- Her only two in the last two races at Turfway were very strong. Gets back her winning rider and stays at the $5000 level. She is very consistent and seems to like to sit just off the pace which will be beneficial this evening.
4- another that shows consistency in the last two races at Turfway are very good in relation to others here. I feel very comfortable with my top two picks and will use them in horizontal wagers.
3- This for-year-old blew up the tote board last time out with a 58-1 score. Does show some consistency at this level and I will be looking for her to pick up pieces in the lane.
Race 7
6-1-2
6- I love this horse last time out and will once again put her on top. This hundred thousand dollar yearling raised very well first time at Turfway and should prefer this post position to her rail post last outing.
1- has run well in both starts to date comes from Mountaineer and has only run on off tracks. Great running style for this tilt and should be close at the wire.
2- is a logical choice with first time blinkers and his run very well recently. Still a maiden and has been favourite in the last three starts. Low percentage trainer and jockey lead me to look other places for the winmer.
Race 8
11-7-8
11-I love this horse but not sure if he’ll get in as he is cross-entered on February 15. You shows good gait speed and should overcome the outside post position. He has trained well up to this race and has strong connections. The last workout was very strong and there is an addition of Lasix.
7- this Ward trainee is very consistent and should like the distance this evening over the distance he raced in early January. Noticed that he had a trouble trip in that race when racing as an entry at very low odds.
8- Will show speed this evening and raced fairly well at Turfway late in 2018. Looking for him to control the pace early and hopefully hang on for a piece late.
Race 9
7-6-8
7- looking for a little bit of a longshot to finish off the evening. This very consistent four-year-old could be right there at the wire. Check out the trainer stats for Lauren layoffs as he hits at 35% in this category.
6- would not be my top pic but figure this horse can make it into the tri with any one of his last three recent races.
8- The more logical choice with a first-time trainer change and early speed. Not thrilled with the race at Arlington on the synthetic but that was long time ago