Turfway Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, December 6, 2018, by Shawn Murphy

Race 1   4-1-7

4- Confiscate- Should be right there in this class and distance trainer has great numbers with layoffs and he should like the freshening and the big drop in class. Also check out the synth stats.

1 – Trenton Bridge – Drops down in class slightly and back to a level where he is competitive,  should get a nice price.

7- Kits Gold – Some great recent races on this type of surface should be good for this field, shows consistency, back to a distance that will be favourable and second off lay-off.

Race 2 –  5-7-6

5- Huntin Buddy – One for one at Turfway, slight drop in class and coming in from Churchill, all positive points coming into this race. Jockey Orm should have this colt on or near the lead early and will be fighting to the wire.

7-  Reprove – Look further than his last race and there are many positives lines. Great race a year ago at Turfway and at a much higher class. Trainer has had a tough year but this could be a good spot for this runner.

6 –  Charm Offensive – Another to throw out the last line, trainer does fairly well with second out horses and this one has solid races over the synthetic surface.

Race 3 – 6-10-1

6 – Pistol Box – this gelding can finish a race well and that can’t be said for many in here as there is lots of early speed here. Don’t be caught taking horses that are showing early speed only to fade fast and now are dropping in class. These are horses that will get tired no matter what , look for horse that have some stamina and finish well. This guy had a good last race and drops.

10-  Fighting for Grace – a good price for a closer with the same thought process as the horse above, don’t be afraid to use these fro 2nd or third in tri wheels.

1 – Bogey is Ok – a bit of a sleeper here, had a great race a year ago in this class, not much in here to beat so deserves some attention.

Race 4 – 6-5-4

6- Naifah – Is always there at the end and just needs a good trip to hit the wire first. Good recent work and strong connections lead me to this Irish bred.

5-  Majestic Kindness – Second off the claim, comes in from Churchill and in good recent form lead her to being my second choice. Price should be right and will be looking forward to a nice stretch run.

4 – Morty – Another that should be a good price and should wake up for this tilt. Showed some liking early in her career for the synthetic track, not much in this race so look for value.

Race 5-  9-6-5

9-  Malibu Saint – Has some class and past success that makes her the pick in this race. Does not race often and is fresh for this start against and easier group. Had a good recent work tab that should prove fit for the race. There are some concerns regarding the ability to win a race but she hasn’t raced against this type of field in over a year when winning at Gulfstream.

6- Pop By – drops into this race off 2 tough fields at Keeneland, should be more comfortable with this group and show considerable improvement. Should be above 6-1 and provide value.

5-  Nymue’s Treasure – lightly raced 3 year old filly with great synthetic stats and good connections. Loves both Turfway and jockey Franklin what else could you ask for?

Race 6 – 2-3-5

2- She’s a Fine Line – Not my favourite pick of the night as we have a speedy filly that has a hard time finishing sometimes. Trainer change may be what she needs to run back to her September 8th race.

3- Get Foxy – Drops in for a tag that should be much more comfortable for her. Very consistent at this level in the past and should sit close to the lead. A great bet to be in the top 2.

5-  Need the Wall – You are going to get a price of her and that’s a good thing, will be charging late to pick up the pieces if the speed does not hold. Not great stats for the connections this year, but if you are looking for a horse to finish out the tri, look no further.

Race 7-   1-7-4

1-  Hot Honey(entry) – My best bet for the evening as both parts look great. Trainer Ward should these youngsters ready to rock and roll. The price will be short but it’s better that throwing tickets away.

7 – Miss Ximena – She May be the real deal and may progress against tougher in her second lifetime start. Had an easy time in her first race but not sure of the caliber of that group in Indiana.

4 –  Bivian B – Lightly raced filly comes in from Churchill after a average race on a sloppy track. Speed figures are consistent and strong for this group.

Race 8- 6-5-3

6-  Flying Frank should be flying early and be able to carry the speed to victory. He has a good record at this class and should provide good value in this low level field. Good results from both the jock and trainer add to the preference.

5-  Two if by Sea – Blinkers back on this gelding that showed previous success with this added equipment. This gelding is familiar with the racing surface and also should show value at the windows. The young jockey has a recent win and will be looking for more success.

3 –  Dynamite Stick – Longshot of the night is third of a lay-off one for one at Turfway and has good figs. He loves coming in third so be smart and use him in the under position in both tri’s and  super’s. He could light up the tote if he wins this low level claimer.

Good luck tonight, some good value to be had.

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