Race 1 – A six pack of older maiden claiming fillies open the Saturday night card. 1- I Likem was a legitimate second last time for maiden claiming $15,000 and gets the nod in this weak group. Even being on the ‘raise’ in claiming price, we don’t see this as a much tougher group than time so it’s really a lateral class move in our opinion. Should move forward second start at the meet. Jockey upgrade helps the case too. 5- Faith in Cathy has hit the exacta against similar in her last two. Jockey upgrade to Burke from the apprentice Tormey should have this horse in better position both throughout the race and turning for home. Speed figures in the last two races seem to be good enough to win this race. 3- Fashionablyawesome was disappointing at 2-5 last time against similar. Should have more stamina second off the layoff. Usually look elsewhere when they are beat as that heavy of a favorite last time out.
Race 2 – 4- Stately Oak drops back into $5,000 claiming company after an even effort versus starter allowance company last time. The two back race against similar claiming company was an open length win with a speed fig that fits with the best of these. Lezcano seemingly hops off the rail horse to ride this one. We see that as a positive. 5- Northern Ranger was an open length winner last time while going favored. A repeat of that performance puts this one right there at the wire with the other contenders. 8- Twenty Gauge has been consistent underneath when going one turn on the Turfway poly. Could close up late to complete the tri.
Race 3 – 2- Raf drops from $10,000 claiming company into $5,000 today, but does go from straight three year old’s to facing elders. Even though some handicappers would call that a lateral move, we still see this as a drop in class as this is a weak group for the condition. Raf has the speed to be in good position early in this 5 furlong dash. Speed figures in recent races are competitive. Solid jockey, trainer, and owner. Lots to like about the connections. The five furlongs should suite this horse just fine. 8- Pequeno Grande gets a jockey upgrade after hitting the board in the last few versus tougher. 7- Swami Genius figures in here off his maiden win three back.
Race 4 – 9- Ohmymy is freshened up for this third career start. In a field filled with other first time starting main contenders, we’re going to side with the experience here. Productive third in December at this level. Like to see Machado taking the mount. 5- Awe Honey debuts for the red hot Contreras barn. Anything they send out we have to use. Only three breezes on paper, but we have to think this one has had more works which have just gone unpublished. 10- Paddy’s Peridot debuts for high winning percentage Tommy Drury barn. Gets Franklin in the irons which is a plus. Like the previous selection we’re assuming this barn is racing this one off more than just three works that are showing up on paper.
Race 5 – 1-Infinite is a heavy favorite for high win percentage trainer Wesley Ward. Machado in the irons. Just missed in a nice group of special weight company last out. Day’s most likely winner. But will be a heavy odds on favorite. 7- Wise Legacy has been second in his last two, but needs to get about 10 lengths faster on speed figure scales to be anywhere close to the top choice. 9- Yes It’s Bonifide debuts for the reliable Connelly barn. Nice steady workout pattern on paper should have him with even stamina to hang around in deep stretch. Hustle rider Outzts should put him in the race early. Barn hits at a nice percentage with first time starters. Will need to have his serious running shoes on top upend the top choice.
Race 6 – 2- Blueberry Shine was out-finished to the wire by Lucy’s Town. Now making her third start off the layoff for the red hot Contreras barn. Should be double tough and goes as our day’s best bet (which is the combination of what my highest likelihood to win opinion on the card for the highest price, which we hope to get 8-5 here). 3- Pinotage projects to set the pace and get ran down by the top pick. But we think is good enough to hang around underneath. 6-Stylitude should sit a tracking trip from the outside and be there turning for home. Hopefully doesn’t get parked wide on the turn breaking from the outside post.
Race 7 – 5- Two Shakes projects to be another heavy favorite winner. Big debut win sprinting on the lawn at the Spa. Trouble going a mile at KD, we’ll forgive that race. Trusting the Ward barn has this one ready to fire a race close to the debut effort, which wins this race easily. 7- Sky Diety was a descent maiden winner last time and should be forwardly placed early under McKee. That was a nice win considering it was the first time on the Turfway poly and in the Sands barn. We project improvement off that win. 9- Melrose Inn won on debut at Belterra on the lawn over the summer, so should take to the poly. Posted a bullet breeze at Fair Grounds prior to coming back to Kentucky. Trainer Jimmy Baker does well with his stock and we like backing this barn at the window.
Race 8 – Bottom level maiden claimers close out the Saturday card. 10- Confection Fortune was second, on Turfway debut, behind a runaway winner for the level last out. Has positional speed to be in a good forward spot. Earned a competitive last race Beyer Speed Figure compared to the other contenders. Should move forward off that last race. We’ll take the 6-1 chance to close out the card. 6- Sir Yarnallton drops down to the bottom after hitting the board three and four back against $15,000 company. Should be there at the end with this group on the drop. 8- Dee’s Ronnie has been competitive at this level in her last few. If she finds that two back race tonight and runs back to the speed figure she earned that day, then she’s a clear winner. Spread in the last to close out the card.