Happy Spiral Steaks Day! Make it a profitable one. Hopefully we’ll see the winner in the Kentucky Derby.
Race 1 – 4- Gogetter is a homebred for Calumet farm. Been training down at the Fair Grounds and then was shipped to KY for his first start. Nice ½ mile breeze from the gate over the Keeneland training track is enough for us to take on top in a weak maiden special weight. 3- Sterling Hope showed speed and faded in his debut on 12/22. Trainer John Ennis does well with maidens making their second start. 1- The Dogmen is the 7/5 ML favorite and must be respected, but that was a bad race last time at this level on 1/18. We’d need to see much better form on paper to justify that low of a price.
Race 2 – 1a Get Thee Behind Me the son of English Channel has been training down at Palm Beach Downs and shipped up to make his first start in KY for Calumet and Sisterson. We prefer this one if we get the plain one as well, although for the plain one Rattle and Snap this race may be a prep race for a dirt race at Keeneland being a son of Curlin. If he shows some ability today throw him in the virtual stable.
3- Elvis the Cat was second on debut going ¾ of a mile. Now stretches out for his second start. Interesting to see that as he could have entered in the first race and been nearly 1/9 to win that one. This race looks much tougher on paper.
2- Fort Ramsey ships up from Florida to KY for his debut. Steady work tab is nothing special but not terrible either. Gaffalione in to ride the big stakes today takes the mount in this undercard race. Just seems like owner Ken Ramsey always gets one or two wins on Spiral day every year, so pay close attention to his runners today.
Race 3 – 4- Mount Calvary was a winner last time at this level going 6.5 furlongs, now stretches out today. We’ll take the ‘class’ horse in this race on top. 5 time winner from 18 starts. Consistent sort.
5- Monet Trend ships up from Gulfstream for Maker and Gaffalione. Second last out for $16,000N2L company on the turf last time. That was a solid effort off a layoff earning a speed figure that certainly makes him a contender today. He’ll need to be a little closer to the early pace today to get the win.
2- Truth Be Tolled may have needed that race last time as it was off a 6+ month layoff. Should show better today. Has sneaky back class over this polytrack. Don’t underestimate…….
Race 4 – Wide open maiden special weight field. Advise spreading in your early multi’s. 8- Club Car is out of the mare Sittin At The Bar who was 11 for 19 lifetime and a precious sprinting filly. Thinking with the worktab and being out of this mare, we have a first time starter that will be ready to win first out.
4- Love Is Alive has that ascending Beyer Speed Figure pattern we like to see in each of her starts. High percentage jockey and trainer help the case. Just missed last out by ¾ at this level and distance.
2- Speight’s Comete was second last time to a nice maiden winner in Tolly Ho. Figures to take $ at the window being in the Linda Rice barn. I faded her to third because being drawn on the rail, I see the race shaping up with her taking outside pace pressure the entire way. So I could see her getting swooped late by a price horse closing. Tred lightly if this Rice filly is getting hammered in the betting and seems a ‘evenmoneyish’ cinch on the tote.
Race 5 – 3- Sugarsugarsugar our girl ‘Sugar has been sweet to us this meet so far. Swooping winner at this level last out. They better have their running shoes on to beat her. Just think we’ll get a fair price close to the morning line on ‘Sugar today and she’ll go as the day’s best ‘value’ bet.
11- Our Snowflake has been lighting up the work tab and seems to be coming into this race set to run a banger off the bench. With Ouzts in the irons we expect this one to be on the engine early and try to wire this group.
9- Tia Flor ships back to Turfway after two subpar races on the dirt at Mahoney. Third behind ‘Sugar three back last time on poly makes her an a sneaky underneath use at a solid 15-1 morning line price. FYI use the AE #13 if it gets in.
Race 6 – 1- Armistice Day was exceptional in his two races at Woodbine over the summer. Any improvement as a now three year old makes him squarely the one to beat. Added benefit is those two year old races came over a synthetic surface.
2- Hawaiian Noises scored in his last two. Was all out to win last time to at 1-5. Should make a good account of himself but also projects to be overbet.
5- Zypto could factor underneath for Maker, Prescott and American Pharaoh owners Zayatt Stables.
Race 7 – 12- Silent Sonet has been productive in graded stakes company at Woodbine. With that race under her belt at Aqueduct on 1/25 we’ll pick her on top. 3- Princess Warrior has been productive against top class three year old turf routing fillies. Hasn’t raced since December. But if she carries her turf form to the poly, then she’s a clear winner.
4- Eqho is worth consideration underneath.
Race 8 – 9- King Ford beat his stablemate Harvey Wallbanger on 10/28/18 who ended up winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. So that was a live baby maiden race at Churchill. We’ll trust the top notch Mcpeek barn has this one ready to fire off the long layoff. Showed talent as a two year old.
4- Federal Law was solid in his two polytrack two year old races at Woodbine in the late fall for Mark Casse. Has been working at the Casse Ocala, FL training farm. If improves as a three year old this one should be right there.
Race 9 – Nice to have the Kentucky Cup return to the Turfway racing calendar.
2- Sniper Kitten comes in off a nice second at Gulfstream in three year olds only turf stakes company last out. This is his first race versus older horses, but we think he’s up to the task. Son of Kitten’s Joy should relish the poly. Nice 5/8 local breeze signals he’s ready to run a big race.
6- Royal Son has been tough to keep on the track as you see all those gaps between races. But when he’s right, he’s darn good. Look at that 2017 Prairie Bayou win. We’re hoping by Gorder having in this race it shows the barn has some confidence and thinks he’s training well enough to justify entering in a stake race.
7- Sir Dudley Digges another one for Ramsey and Maker. Has been facing tougher at the Fair Grounds recently. Had an excuse in his last race. Consistent sort is capable of winning on his best day.
Race 10 – The Bourbonette Oaks. Wide open race. Suggest spreading in your multi race bets.
3- Birdie was an impressive 8 length maiden winner last out over the Turfway poly earning a 68 Beyer that stacks up ok compared to this bunch. We’ll bet she’s going to improve 8-10 Beyer points today (which should be about the winning Beyer speed figure of 78-80) and be there with some of these others who’ve got a little more racing experience than her.
5- Into Trouble is a stakes winner over the Arlington polytrack. She was second last time at Tampa in the Gasparalla stakes. I faded her to second as I have a little hesitation that she’s not a two turn horse. But I’ve got her in the exacta out of respect for her form.
12- Gold Credit will have to work out a trip from the 12 post. Impressive maiden winner at Keeneland in the fall. We’re forgiving the subpar effort in the sloppy Golden Rod race. Work tab at Tampa signals she’s sitting on a big race. Just worry about that wide draw. 9- Unapologetic Me has been hitting the board against allowance turf company at the Fair Grounds in her last few. Consistent sort is a must use underneath in your tri’s and super’s.
Race 11 – The meet feature. The Jeff Ruby Steaks. Kentucky Derby points on the line. 10- Somelikeithotbrown was on the board in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. Was a drawing off winner last out in this race’s local prep. So with the class, top speed figs, proven local recency, proven at distance, top barn, and top rider this one looks to be a solid reliable favorite to take down the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
9- Curlin Grey will be running late in a race that looks to have pace to close into. Get’s added ground today. Sneaky at 10-1. 3- Five Star General should be on or near the lead. Scored in a pair of off the turf races in the fall. We see the trainer intent of entering in those turf races as this one should take to the poly.
1- Dynamic Racer was second last time to the top pick. Should get a nice ground saving run today drawn the rail. Nice work in-between races. Seems to be improving in each race over the polytrack.
Race 12 – 7- Bye Bye Bully’s lost a head bob last time out at this distance and level while finishing in front of our top pick in the Bourbonette. Should put it all together today and get home at a short price.
6- Lynda D showed a little run to split a field of 10 after stumbling at the start on debut. Franklin retains the mount, a positive in our eyes. Just taking a 15-1 stab she may improve in what looks to be a race wide open once you get beyond the favorite.
1- Golden Loch was second last time to our aforementioned Bourbonette pick. Should get a nice run from the rail under Serpa.