Turfway Park Friday January 11, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves cold weather, fleece pullovers, hot toddies, and cuddling. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Allowance 5000s 6 ½ F 4YO&Up F&M
7-5-2-3
Luan Machado climbs aboard the ML favorite #5 Color Me Pretty in her first start since shipping in from a minor stakes flop at Gulfstream. Sure, she looks the part, but I have to bet against a horse that has never run on the all-weather, especially since her 1/3/19 Turfway workout didn’t make me tingle. #2 Lusty Git Yer Gun has been incredibly good this Turfway meet as she has won both of her starts in controlling fashion. I find it odd that a 9YO with well-documented all-weather success has improved so dramatically since returning to the surface of her choice and I am not thrilled with an inside post in a sprint. She could win with any further improvement off of her last two wins, but I am against. The price on #7 Truly Val is sure to be too good to pass up tonight as she lost to the #2 last time out. She’s improving and entering the third start of her form cycle. Machado jumped off of her, but Malcolm Franklin took the mount. That’s not exactly a huge downgrade and I like her post position.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n3L 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
1-8-2-6
I can’t resist the entry of #1 Edge of Pleasure and #1A Need the Wall. Scott Barker owns and trains both of these and Need the Wall is plenty good enough to get it done on her own. Edge of Pleasure doesn’t quite seem as good as the others, but she gets a ten pound weight advantage by using the bug Virginia Tomey. There is plenty of value here over the ML favorite #8 Appealing Julia, who is plenty good enough to win this. I just have to wonder if she lacks the killer instinct and is a bit of a hanger. I’m against her on top on that angle alone. #2 Dang It Dorothy makes sense here too, but she has yet to hit the board in three career all-weather starts. At this level, that says something.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000n1y 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
9-5-2-6
I can’t decide if I love or hate the fact that trainer Salvador Arceo is wheeling #5 Put Sarah On back on eight days rest. Her 1/3/19 Turfway race should have been good enough to win, but she ran into a little tougher crowd that night. Arceo has yet to win at the Turfway meet, so I am against her on top. #2 Twirling Princess broke slow and went wide in a nice effort on 12/14/18 here at Turfway. I have to wonder if Daniel Thompson booted Eddie Zuniga off the mount to get a more professional effort from Luan Machado. She is a definite player in this spot. #9 Prom Theme has run two decent races since coming off of the shelf for the Turfway meet. She ran into a much improved Lusty Git Yer Gun two back and improved upon that effort with a better second place finish the next time out. John McKee stays aboard for the third race in this form cycle as well. Sign me up.
Race Four: 7:42 post – MC 30000 6 F 3YO
8-4-6-5
This maiden claimer is just gross on paper. Gross, I tell ya. None of these runners have run anywhere close to a good enough par effort to get their picture taken, so why should tonight be any different? #6 Babeswildweekend is the most experienced runner, but he has one third place finish (in his first start) from those seven races. For that reason, I am against. #4 Rockyshack has six out of the money finishes in his six career races, but, at least, he has been on the all-weather surface. I’m still against. So… which of these runners has the best chance to improve dramatically tonight? I’ll take #8 Helluva Life. Trainer Tommy Short is better than his numbers suggest. Helluva Life was mauled at the start of his first race and spotted the field a Mountaineer country mile, he didn’t finish last in that race when a lot of horses would have just given up, he gets an outside post in a Turfway sprint, and he gets Lasix for the first time. I expect him to improve the most out of this lot and I hope it is enough.
Race Five: 8:12 post – MSW 18.5K 1 Mile 3YO
3-6-9-8
#9 Electoral had a dream trip in his first career start on 12/22/19 only to run greenly in the stretch and flatten. Rafael Mojica stays aboard and there is no way he should be 8/1 on the ML. #4 Unity makes a ton of sense after two in the money finishes over the Turfway all-weather surface and Linda Wohlers isn’t changing anything up as she gets her regular jockey Carlos Villasana back in the irons. He is a must use in horizontals. #3 Artemus Bridge is tonight’s winner, though. He gave the field an eight length lead when he started like a lot of first time starters are apt to do, but he closed into that disadvantage to narrowly lose by one length. Add to it a blazing Turfway workout on 1/5/19 and you could easily convince yourself that he should have won his first race for the Ramseys on 12/21/18. He gets it done with ease tonight. I will single in exotics.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 18000 1 Mile 4YO&Up
7-3-1-6
Let’s face it, #6 Lieutenant Colonel is probably the best horse on the Turfway Park backside tonight. He has several graded stakes races and no horse has run anywhere close to his best figures. That said, I am not endorsing a 7YO horse coming in off of a seventeen month layoff in its first start on an all-weather surface at Turfway in January. I mean, that makes zero sense and I will play against. The coupled entry of #1 Hard to Be Good and #1A Mister Pollard loom large for trainer Kim Hammond. Hard to be Good has been quite good and improving in his last two races and Mister Pollard could be controlling speed. #3 Mount Calvary loves Turfway, has run two solid races since returning from a six month layoff, gets a jockey upgrade in John McKee, and has been facing tougher. I respect. All of that said, let’s beat them all with #7 Approvethismessage. This is the type of play I rarely make as he is an 8YO coming in off of a fifteen month layoff and no poly-track experience. Just Yuck! That said, trainer Randy Haffner is 60% ITM this Turfway meet (yeah, I know, small sample size) and the pace setup for this race fits him like a glove. The two Turfway workouts give me a huge amount of confidence that he will take to the surface and fire a big one off of the shelf. To me, the 6/1 on the ML is too much to pass up.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 50000n1x 6 ½ F 3YO Fillies
6-2-5-3
#2 Ryaneaux Spot blew up the Turfway tote on 12/22 with a controlling gate to wire effort at this same distance. I didn’t have her that night, but my nephew sure did. He’s backing her again tonight, but I will play her underneath a likely single on tonight’s card. #6 Workaholic should get Linda Wohlers and Mattress Mack their first winner of the Turfway meet. They have been knocking on the door as they are 5/6 ITM this meet and even had another runner cross the wire first only to be disqualified. Workaholic gave up the lead on 12/20 in a mile route here at Turfway, but sprinting just may suit her better as her best results have been going six panels. She broke her maiden for the second time (yeah, another Wohlers DQ issue) in a 67K MSW at Keeneland, which makes her a bit of a rare breed on the Turfway grounds. The 1/3/19 workout signals she’s right.
Race Eight: 9:44 post – Claiming 15000n2L 1 Mile 4YO&Up
3-1-9-7
With the scratch of the Simms Racing runner Finished, this looks like a possible match race between two horses that appear to be much the best in this field. #1 Belfast Cowboy returns to Michael Ann Ewing’s care after an unsuccessful trip to Belmont back in October. I am a bit suspicious of the significant drop in class for this 5YO gelding after the aggressive placement on the NYRA circuit. This might be a case of first or last. #3 Escalera ran a pretty solid off the claim for owner/trainer Cipriano Contreras on 12/21. It was his first on the all-weather surface, so there is plenty of reason to think he will improve off of that effort as he is just four years old. You also have to wonder if the big race at Keeneland where he broke his maiden was a bit of a fluke. Contreras is to be respected here at Turfway and he has the numbers to back it up. I suppose if you would like to upset the apple cart a bit, you could back #9 Tomahawk Kitten as the children of Kitten’s Joy tend to run pretty well in Florence, KY and his form isn’t horrible. Don’t expect to get 10/1 as the ML suggests, though.