Turfway Park Friday February 1, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves coffee, Disney princesses, well done cover songs, and surface changes. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to some cold night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 7500n2L 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
6-2-1-7
#2 Bella Kristina is the slight ML favorite, and deservedly so, as she has been in consistently good form this Turfway meet. I’m not swallowing the chalk with her as she has yet to beat winners, but she can certainly win tonight. #1 Lalun Charm is a little better priced on the ML and she may get the trip she needs to win because of what appears to be a three horse speed duel on the front end tonight. She hasn’t closed too well into pedestrian splits lately, though, and that is a bit of a concern. She can win if the pace is a little more heated up front like I expect. #6 Fun Sucker graduated on 12/21/18 here at Turfway in a run-away victory before being taken to the Mountain where she burned out in the stretch. I want her in this return to the all-weather tonight.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n2x 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
1-7-2-6
The ML has #2 Too Cool as the favorite over the entry, but I’m not buying. The entry of #1 Allie Grace and #1A Tiz Beauty have complimentary running styles for this 1 mile affair. There is no reason for Tiz Beauty not to fire to the front and attempt to steal this while walking the dog. She should be lone speed as the other early runners in this race just aren’t quick enough to go with her. I expect Allie Grace to get a good run at her stable mate coming down the lane as she usually comes late. I do have a little worry about Allie Grace as she didn’t fire at all in her last race, but I can draw a line through that one and make a solid case for her. Also, this entry was facing a pretty solid Turfway horse in Munchies last time out. #7 Native Wonder has closed decently in her two recent Turfway efforts and should do the same tonight. She fits with these if given the right trip.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000n1x 1 Mile 4YO&Up
4-7-2-5
This claimer is about as wide open as they get and I wouldn’t talk you out of using at least seven of these runners. #2 Red Hot Warrior ran a wide trip in his last and got nipped at the wire, but his previous trip at Turfway was pretty bad. Sure, he got into some trouble at the start, but he never ran that night. Do we draw a line through that effort or do we remember? Good question. #7 Approvethismessage is making his second start after a 26 month lay-off and has every right to improve tonight. His races as a 6YO are definitely good enough to win tonight and I love the recent Turfway workouts. I think he just stopped running in his first race back to the track. #4 Vedelago looks like a sneaky good play here. Owner/trainer Jose Orantes is throwing blinkers on a 10YO horse for the first time in ages because he has been flat down the lane in his last five races since November 2018. Though he has yet to win on the all-weather surface, I like Rafael Mojica staying on board and the equipment change tells me that this rarely-seen trainer is still trying to pick up a check with him. In a wide-open race, that’s good enough for me.
Race Four: 7:42 post – MSW 18.5k 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
12-6-11-10
I am not going to lie to you, this race is a puzzle. Four of these never ran a step in their first race, three first time starters from low percentage barns, and another that hasn’t broke her maiden in ten starts as a 2YO. Where do we turn? #6 Bye Bye Bully’s is probably the best known horse in the race and she certainly has a big chance tonight. I’m not sure how I feel about a lesser-used jockey in the irons, but Julie Burke is no slouch and she stays with this filly. #11 Raramuri Spirit has similar running lines to the #6 and another low percentage jockey, Carlos Villasana, stays aboard. There is no reason to think she can’t get it done, either. I don’t care for any of the first time starters, but #10 Tuxedo Lemon gets a huge weight allowance by using bug-girl Virginia Tomey. That said, I have seen enough Tomey rides to know that she needs to be on the best horse to win as she is still crafting her trade. I don’t think her mount tonight is much-the-best, but I can see an underneath finish. #3 Call Me Fancy will likely be post time favorite for the Ramsey/Maker/Prescott connections as she spotted the field ten lengths after some gate shenanigans in her first start. I can’t play her on top. #12 Channel Princess is the only runner I see with a reasonable upside that will give me some value. She didn’t hate Turfway in her first start on 12/7/18, she didn’t stop running even though she was always far back, and her four workouts since the last race show some encouragement. I want to play against Maker in this spot, so I will take an educated stab with the Princess.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Cincinnati Trophy 50K 6 ½ F 3YO Fillies
6-4-14-5
If you can stomach the chalk, #4 Iva looks pretty tough in this edition of the Cincinnati Trophy. She’s shipping back up from Gulfstream for Mike Maker after a nice check last month in the House Party. She could air this group, but she hasn’t raced on the all-weather yet, so I have some pause. Her recent workouts here at Turfway indicate she should be fine and that Wesley Ward brought her here for this type of race. We have to use her in horizontals, but questions remain. #5 Workaholic makes some sense, but she will have to get back to her dirt form in the late fall to get her picture taken tonight. That said, she doesn’t hate the Turfway surface. #14 Dream Boat Anna drew into the field off of the AE list for Mike Maker. She has only raced at Turfway Park and her 12/7/18 graduation at first asking indicates this distance could be in her wheelhouse. She is a daughter of Violence, so she is also dangerous. #6 New Roo has been in the money every start of her career and finally graduated at odds-on here at Turfway on 1/4/19. Tommy Drury is no dummy and he wheels her right back here on the all-weather for a stakes try. She gets a good post, Malcolm Franklin stays aboard, and she should get an ideal trip and pace setup from her post draw.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 15000 6 ½ F 3YO Fillies
8-9-3-10
Off of her last race, #8 Rogue Too looks to be much the best in this spot. I honestly don’t think we can beat her. I might take a shot with #9 My Time to Shine adding blinkers for the first time, but I’m not sold on the fact that her dismal 12/7/18 Turfway effort will be corrected by the equipment change. To me, it looked like she got headed and didn’t enjoy the company or kickback. If the blinkers are the solution, she can win and it is worth a stab. It is also possible that #3 Kimberley Dream figured it out on 12/28/18 here at her Turfway graduation. She will still need to take another step forward to run down the chalk. I certainly like Cory Orm staying aboard.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – MSW 18.5K 6 F 3YO Fillies
3-6-2-8
I like the addition of Lasix in the second start for #6 Hope and a Dream, but I have to wonder about Rafael Mojica crawling off the mount for the first time starter #2 Tolly Ho. The first start for Hope and a Dream certainly looks like the type of horse that will benefit from the addition of Lasix as she didn’t have enough punch down the lane. Tolly Ho must have some upside to attract Mojica, but the inside post in a Turfway sprint has not been the place to be. She will have to be all that and a bag of chips to win at first asking. #3 Love Is Alive ran into Red Hot Kitten last out and Tommy Drury is certain to get some improvement in her third Turfway start. The inside draw hurts a little with her too, but she has some racing experience and John McKee stays aboard. The co-ML favorites are #4 Cyclical and #5 Quicktrickmunny, and I have questions about both. I can’t stomach a winless Angel Serpa on #4 and I can’t see why the #5 has so much steam for her first start. The statistics sure don’t support it. I am going to play against the bias and take Love Is Alive.
Race Eight: 9:44 post – MC 5000 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
7-10-9-8
This is the third race on the card where I don’t have a great opinion. I find tonight’s closing race to be extremely wide open and evenly matched. I suppose that makes for a good betting card. #9 Pebble Slinger runs for the second time at this level and she fits. Winless in 18 starts, I can’t take her on top, but she is improving a bit for owner/trainer Norris Davidson and he has fared quite well at this Turfway meet. #10 True Simplicity has improved since returning to the all-weather surface after a five month lay-off. She ran pretty well chasing a good Fun Sucker here at Turfway on 12/21/18. Any improvement has this 4YO in the mix. #7 Lady Creed just missed last out on 1/5/19 and she has improved since moving to the Michael Sullivan barn. She has been in the mix at this level in all three Turfway starts and her 11/18/18 effort would likely win tonight. I have to admit, I am not a fan of Carlos Villasana staying aboard, but that just might make me a hard-headed asshole. Let’s hope for a little more improvement and play her on top.