Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves cheap night racing, cheap bourbon, cheap women, sarcasm, and a good cuddle. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Let’s throw some darts at Turfway Park.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:10 post – MC 7500 6 ½ F 2YO
1-5-8-10
A maiden claiming race with ten two-year-olds, nine of them dropping in class, on a surface that only one horse has tried before starts tonight’s Turfway Park card. THROW A DART! Seriously, throw a dart and bet the number. #1 No Apres Vous runs for Wesley Ward and Luan Machado, a deadly combination lately. Ward looks to have seriously invested some training time into this Calumet Farm colt during his three month break. I hate chalk, but he is my top choice. #5 Coleaquilus looks to have run competitive times in his previous special weight races. #8 Ice Music has trained three times in November over the Turfway surface, so he makes some sense. Throw a dart if you don’t single the #1.
Race Two: 6:41 post – Claiming 500n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
8-3-4-5
Three of these horses squared off at the same level here at Turfway Park eight days ago. #3 Kid Creed looked the best of these that night and was almost good enough to win. It’s not very sexy, but #8 Mr. Compass looks the best of the new shooters. He has run plenty good enough at Turfway to win in this spot tonight. Experience over the surface means everything, so let’s use #4 Prodigy’s Pride as well for owner/trainer Rick Jordan and Perry Outzs stays up.
Race Three: 7:11 post – MSW 18.5K 6 F 2YO Fillies
6-1-8-12
Fourteeen entered for this 2YO filly MSW and half of them are first time starters. #1 Love Is Alive looks to be the most well-intentioned. Tom Drury does okay at 12% with FTS and John McKee is up. The morning works point to a good effort. #8 Whos to Blame gets Luan Machado in her maiden effort for Darren Miller and the string of Churchill works indicate that she should be ready. Mike Maker has #12 Dream Boat Anna well prepared, but I am not a fan of the outside post. They will all be chasing #6 Stellar Stiletto, who looks much the best on paper. I am not pumped about the fact she hasn’t won in her first ten starts, but she has been running against much better competition. If she likes the track at all, she is the winner.
Race Four: 7:41 post – Allowance 18500n2L 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
4-1-2-6
Look, I promise I hate eating chalk. I really do. That said, I can’t see any way #4 Pony Up loses tonight. He has, by far, the most back class of all of these, he has faced way better, and his lone all-weather race was his career-best effort in the Jack Ruby Steaks here at Turfway on March 17, 2018. Yes, he is no longer with the Toddfather. Yes, his last race was a bit of a clunker. If he loses tonight, however, he is likely done running. The only horse with a chance to beat him is #1 Welles Crowther for Mattress Mack and Laura Wohlers and I would rather eat chalk than rely on a Wohlers horse.
Race Five: 8:11 post – MC 15000 6 ½ F 3YO&Up
8-3-4-7
#3 Break the Deal ran this distance here at Turfway eight days ago against a better field and only finished two lengths back in third. There is no reason he is not good enough tonight against weaker. #4 Warrior’s Dream is entered off of a two month freshening after a complete clunker on September 30, 2018 at Churchill Downs. His MSW efforts earlier this year are plenty good enough to get the job done tonight if he takes to the all-weather surface. #7 Grandpa Frank should duel for the lead with #8 Shackled. The early November Turfway workouts for Mike Maker’s horse indicate that he is the winner tonight.
Race Six: 8:41 post – Claiming 8000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
8-4-2-6
I find it interesting that Perry Ouzts jumps off of the #6 Tizz Be Hot for #2 Southern Ruffles. The move tells me that he thinks the Aaron West runner will take to the surface and is better suited in this spot. #4 Looktheotherway has run over half of her career races over the all-weather surface and her Arlington Park races earlier this year show that she is plenty good enough to win here. #8 Rulelikecleopatra is a hard-knocking mare with 47 career races. She has been off for a little over two months, so I have some concerns, but she looks to fire fresh off of her past lay-offs and she has been facing better in her career. If she’s fit, she’s the play and her 11/26/18 Turfway Park workout tells me she is fit.
Race Seven: 9:11 post – OC 50000n1x 1 Mile 2YO Fillies
10-8-4-7
There are two sneaky plays in this race. #4 Arch Avenue barely ran a step in her last race, but was much the best in her maiden win at Churchill Downs on 9/18/18. If you can forgive her for her last race, she is a definite player. #7 Market Success hasn’t run all that well in every one of her career races except for August 3, 2018 at Belterra Park where she won by 18 lengths. EIGHTEEN!!! Her Turfway Park workouts are actually pretty good, too. #8 City Diva and #10 Speedy Solution both ran in the G2 Jessamine at Keeneland Park and both were within six lengths of Concrete Rose, a very good 2YO filly. The Diva should be gunning on the front end and the Solution will be closing late. There should be a nice picture at the wire. Wesley Ward and Luan Machado say cheese with the Ramseys.
Race Eight: 9:41 post – Claiming 5000n1x 5 ½ F 3YO&Up F&M
9-6-3-10
I would like #10 Midnight Tale a lot better if she didn’t draw the complete outside, but we don’t always get what we want. She is sure to duel with #6 Grace Appeal to her inside and Turfway has been playing a little bit towards speed fading to the pressers. I am against the speed in tonight’s finale. #3 Mischievious Kat has a sneaky chance if she can rate just a little closer to the lead and she is getting some needed class relief. Her experience at Turfway should be of great use to her tonight. My boxcar play tonight is #9 Prize Arch for owner/trainer Phil Losada. I may be wrong, but I believe this is the only horse he owns and trains as he only has two starts in 2018. Cory Orm has ridden her to small shares in both of those outings and he stays aboard. Something tells me that she is well-intended tonight.