Opening week continues at Turfway Park with a strong 8 race card, highlighted by the first stakes of the Holiday meet, the Holiday Inaugural. There are many full fields and lots of great betting races for those that like handicapping synthetic tracks. It’s worth noting that the polytrack surface has been replaced with the Tapeta surface, which is used at Golden Gate, Woodbine, and Presque Isle.
Race 1: $5,000 Claiming NW1Y, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-7-4
There’s a full field for the opener, and I’m assuming the Wesley Ward horse, Alien Season (1) on the rail will take a bulk of the betting action. He’ll win his share of races at this meet, but you’ll be able to cash in on the races when you can beat him, and I think his favorite is vulnerable. I’ll look to Summerduck (2) who may have the best early speed in a race where there isn’t massive amounts of early speed but many of these horses struggle to pass others. He showed life here on polytrack last season, and worked very well here on Tuesday. Contreras is a high percentage trainer with horses running on synthetic, winning with 29% of his starters over the last two years. P Club (7) has been racing exclusively on grass for a while now, but this 8 year old gelding has some good races on the Tapeta surface in the past. His form this year has been a bit iffy, but he take a significant drop and could wake up on the surface switch. Hank The Tank (4) makes his second start off an extended layoff for Jerry Hollendorfer. He ran well last year with similar class lines at Golden Gate. He’s usually close in the end and he can be a threat at this level.
Race 2: $50,000 Optional Claiming/NW1X Allowance, 2yo, 1 Mile: My Picks: 3-6-1
Some promising two year olds are in here, with some testing the synthetic waters to see if they’re strong enough to start on the path towards the Jeff Ruby Steaks at the end of the Winter Meet. Kitten’s Firstlove (3) seems to be a standout, as long as he takes to the surface. He was an open lengths maiden winner on the grass at Churchill last out, and one of the more impressive two year olds on the grass during their fall meet. If he puts in a strong effort here, I would imagine we’ll see him moving towards stakes company, whether it is locally, or back on the grass at Gulfstream for their three year old turf series races. Like The King (6) romped on the grass against maiden special foes two back at Belterra. He met a runaway winner last out in an off the turf allowance race at Keeneland. He’s worked well on the dirt in the interim and should be the main danger. C F V Red Nova (1) stretches out to two turns after improving in three sprints. He’s been involved in each of his races, and his trainer, Ronald Kahles, has a strong ROI and winning percentage with his two year old starters over the last two years.
Race 3: $15,000-$10,000 NW2L Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 1-3-13-2
It’s unusual to see such a big field with so little early pace. Echo Alpha Six (1) gets a rail run and is the most likely pacesetter in this spot, assuming he breaks clean. His last three starts on the grass have been competitive, and he ran quality races over the polytrack last year at this level. It’s hard to get excited about a horse that is 1-15, but this may be his best shot for his second win. Classified Info (3) was my longshot play against 20K NW2L claimers at Churchill three weeks ago. He was closing well, to be a close up fourth that day. He keeps getting better and has run credible races on grass and synthetic as well. He’s live again in my eyes, as Wilkes keeps the services of triple bug apprentice Andrea Rodriguez, in search of her first ever professional win. Can’tbetemall (13) will need help to get in the race, and will need to create some racing luck from his wide post if he draws in. However, he’s in good form in his grass races with better horses and should appreciate the class relief. If he doesn’t draw in, I’ll stay on the inside with Hey Griff (2) who woke up in his first start on Tapeta last out at Presque Isle. He’ll have to prove he can back up that effort, but he is a likely factor at this level.
Race 4: $7,500 NW3L Claiming, F/M, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 12-5-10
This one is a complete head scratcher to me. I’d definitely try to spread to get as much coverage in this leg of the Pick 4s and Pick 5s. I’ll take a chance with Decorated for Gold (12) on the outside in this spot. She drops after a dull try last out with better horses at Churchill. Chapman has won with 33% of his starters (12 of 36) cutting back from a route to a sprint. Her turf form puts her right there with these if that form translates to the synthetic. Ratherbluckythangood (5) appears to be a better horse since we saw her here on the polytrack last season. Her last two turf sprints were decent efforts at Ellis. She’s coming in fresh after a ten week freshening. To Fat To Fish (10) has been improving while facing Indiana Breds. She cuts back in distance and has been in the money in her last five starts. Her speed figures are a bit light, but I’ll trade that for consistency at this level, especially if I can get a price.
Race 5: The Holiday Inaugural F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 4-8-9
She’ll be a very short price, but it’s very hard to look past Artie’s Princess (4) in this spot, as she exits a win in the Grade 2 Bessarabian at Woodbine two weeks ago. Her only off the board finish came in her only turf race at Saratoga. She’s 5-6 on synthetic with her only loss being a loss in a photo finish last year. With Woodbine closing early, there’s not many other opportunities to sprint on a synthetic surface. She looks like a chalky single here, as her speed figures tower over these. Tomlin (8) ran her best races on the Tapeta at Golden Gate last year. She moves into the Morey barn and has shown two nice works over this course. She offers a lot of value underneath at 15-1 on the morning line. Stillwater Cove (9) is one of three from the Wesley Ward barn, (including the favorite). She is a talented turf sprinter, who is a stakes winner and stakes placed. Her 2020 form hasn’t been the greatest, but she clearly didn’t care for the dirt last out and could rebound if she takes to the synthetic course.
Race 6: Allowance NW2L, 6 and ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 7-4-2
I’ll take a price stab in here with Upham (7) was claimed two starts back by red hot trainer, Brittany Vanden Berg. He moved to this level, and ran a good race, tiring late over the grass at Hawthorne. He cuts back to 6 and ½ furlongs, while making progress with each start. His sire, Lea, was a graded stakes winner on turf and dirt. Peruvian Boy (4) has a speed figure advantage over many of these and has run credible races on the synthetic in the past. I don’t love taking the short price to win on a 1-16 horse though. Hug The Munny (2) will have to step up here, but he has good races sprinting on the grass, that would keep him in the hunt. Horses sired by Munnings have had great success on synthetics, so guessing a forward move from this one at a big number wouldn’t be the craziest gamble in the world.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 1 Mile: My Picks: 11-3-7
I’ll try Hard Rye Guy (11) on top in this maiden contest. He exited the famous no contest maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs, which has produced some future winners (Royal Pass, Kitten’s Firstlove). He was competitive that day, and ran well the next week on closing day there. He regressed a bit in an off the turf maiden special at Keeneland last out, but could run well on synthetics, like his sire, Hard Spun. Partner’s Hope (3) is very logical if he’s able to replicate his debut effort on the dirt, while racing on synthetic. More Than Ready sired horses seemingly can run on anything, so it’s a reasonable gamble he will. Hard Knocking (7) has improved in three turf routes and certainly could be a factor on this surface switch.
Race 8: $5,000 Claiming, NW1Y, 1 Mile: My Picks: 6-3-4
This race runs through the Rivelli shipper in Can’t Hide From Me (3), but I’ll take a little stab with Masterofthehouse (6) coming in from Presque Isle. His 2019 form there was a little better than what he’s shown this year, but he can get the distance, and could be coming home well late here. Can’t Hide From Me (3) has the class and speed advantage over the field, but he’s no lock as he finds himself in a two turn race for the first time in his career. He ran big at this distance before, but that was in a one turn race at Arlington. I suspect he can get the distance, but he’ll be a short priced horse trying something new. Stay Home (4) might be one of the most aptly named horses racing in 2020. His form has tailed off a bit, but he’s dropping in class. He ran a competitive race here last year on the Polytrack, so it’s reasonable to think he can compete on the Tapeta.