Tremendous participation in the entry box continues at this Turfway meeting tonight. 7 of the 8 races on the card, drew full fields with 2 AE’s, and the only race that didn’t draw a full field, features a field of 11. There are plenty of great wagering opportunities to dive into.
Race 1: $10,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yo, 1 Mile, My Picks: 9-2-10
Lower level maidens kick off the Friday night card. Let’s try Counting Coup (9) who dropped to this level last out, and ran fifth, beaten nine at Indiana Grand. His first two starts were at two turns, so I think returning to a route race, while staying at this level is a plus. The dam sire is Kitten’s Joy, so he could improve while trying the synthetic for the first time. Trainer Lilia Gonzalez has a small stable, but her shippers at this meet have been well meant thus far, winning with one horse and having her other three starters finish second. Goodtime Artie (2) gets the worst of the draw, landing in post twelve. He was competitive last out against $15K maiden claimers at Churchill, and his best Beyer figure came on the grass at Kentucky Downs. Horses that have been competitive at Kentucky Downs, have been faring well so far at this meet. Dawn West (10) closed well to finish third here in a $7,500 maiden claiming sprint last week, while going off at 58-1. His speed figures have improved with each start, so he could get a piece while facing slightly tougher tonight.
Race 2: $7,500 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 4-3-8
There are some class droppers and professional maidens competing here. I’ll side with Painismygain (4) who was a decent second with better on the grass at Indiana Grand two starts ago. More recently, he was last in a salty $40,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill. He has been away for two and a half months and returns here while taking a significant drop in class. Unlike others, he at least has been close in some of his races. Scott Pond (3) has not been a factor in any of his four starts, but they’ve all been against significantly better fields. He clearly doesn’t care for racing on the main track, as his turf races has been better. He tries synthetic for the first time today, and gets leading riding Corrales aboard. Relmbunkus Syr (8) had three straight second place finishes, two of which came of the grass this fall. He had an excuse in his last, which came back a pretty fast race for the condition. I don’t love betting a trainer that is 0-14 on the year, but this horse has shown he can be competitive if he takes to the surface.
Race 3: $5,000 NW2L Claiming, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 10-2-1
Orange Punch (10) looks like he might be a decent closing sprinter for this class level. He has two strong efforts sprinting, one of them at Colonial on the grass, and the other, was an open length maiden special weight win at Mountaineer in an off the turf race. He threw in a dull effort in allowance company at Mountaineer last out, but could be a candidate to rebound while dropping and switching surfaces. Jimmys Lifestyle (2) is the likely favorite here, as he has two strong efforts in two career tries. However, he has been away from the races since last November. He was double digit winner here in March of 2019 against $7,500 maiden claimers, so it’s not like he’s taking a massive drop in class. Ward and Corrales have teamed up to win at a 42% clip over the past two years here. It might be worth noting that he was a handful leading up to the race last out, and he didn’t run his best race that day. If he’s acting up in the paddock and before the race, I might try to take a swing against him. I’d feel better backing him if he’s on his best behavior beforehand. Grand Hideaway (1) might need to quicken a bit to beat these, but his lone try sprinting on synthetic was an eight length win in August at Arlington. He tried two turns for the first time locally last out and faded late. I could see him improving here and hitting the board at long odds.
Race 4: $5,000 Claiming, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/16: My Picks: 11-4-2
I Dream of Lois (11) isn’t in the best form right now, but those last three races came on the main track. Her turf form has been significantly better, and while there’s no guarantee it will translate to the synthetic, those races are better than what most of these have shown. She drops in class and moves to the barn of Aaron Shorter, who is 5 for 12 with new acquisitions over the last two years. Corrales, who is riding better than anyone at the meet, takes the call. Double Oaked (4) has pretty much been competitive in every start this year. Her turf form is better than her dirt form, as she ran some of the best races of her career this summer at Ellis. She doesn’t win a ton, and her synthetic form on the old Polytrack wasn’t the best. However, she drops in class and is better than many of these. Our Closure (2) is the main danger, as she just missed with better on this course two weeks ago. She has won half of her races on the synthetic, including a few nice wins at Presque Isle. My only concern is that she seems to struggle to put two good races together, especially lately.
Race 5: Optional $40,000 Claiming/NW2X Allowance, F/M, 6 and ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 4-7-8
This is nice optional claiming/allowance spot which serves as the featured race on tonight’s card. Three horses appear primed to take the majority of the public’s wagering attention. Jungle Juice (1) is the one I’m trying to beat, as I think she’s just faster on the dirt than she is on turf or synthetic. French Empire (4) has never run on the synthetic, but she has shown ability on both dirt and turf. She was claimed by Contreras two starts ago, and she ran a credible second against a pretty solid group for this level. Contreras wins a lot of races on the synthetic tracks and this one might been very effective as a late closing sprinter. Sequin (7) runs for Wesley Ward, and she has never run a bad one turn race in 7 sprints. She, too, has never tried a synthetic surface, but like the top pick, she’s shown plenty of ability on dirt and turf. She might be the fastest of these early on. Hollywood Hoopla (8) is a big longshot with some interesting running lines. Her last three races haven’t been good, but they’ve been routing on dirt, routing on turf, and sprinting on dirt. Her best career race by far was sprinting on the grass back in July, and she broke her maiden on Tapeta going one mile at Presque Isle. I’m expecting a better effort tonight, and I think she’ll outrun her odds.
Race 6: $30,000-$20,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yo, 6 Furlongs: My Picks 7-8-2
The firsters in this race aren’t really jumping off the page, so I’ll side with some of the experienced runners here, leaning on the pedigree of their sires. El Segundo (7) ran once on the grass at Indiana and then the following week on the dirt at Churchill. His turf race was better, and horses sired by Munnings have a high winning percentage on the synthetic (24% on Tapeta). He drops in class for this race this evening. Cowboy Hippie (8) is by Goldencents, who has also had some success with his progeny winning on synthetic surfaces (12% on Tapeta). He was eased up in his debut in the slop, but came back with a credible try with $40K maiden claimers last out at Churchill. His running line is similar to Mr. Jimenez (2), who improved dramatically in his second try after being a nonfactor in his debut. He’s sired by Shanghai Bobby, who has sired 13% winners on the Tapeta surface.
Race 7: Optional $50,000 Claiming/NW1X, 2yo, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 6-8-5
There’s a ton of speed in this wide open two year old affair, so I’m opting for a closer with Pico D’Oro (6). I’d love him in this race if it were at 6 and ½ Furlongs, but I still think he’s very live at the shorter distance. He was closing well against a deeper field at Churchill last out before leveling off late. The surface is a question mark, but it will be a question mark for most of these. He’s the morning line favorite, but I think there will still be value, as the Maker and Ward horses are likely to take some decent money at the windows. Fire Sword (8) was entered yesterday Aqueduct, but he didn’t run due to a massive snowstorm in the Northeast. I assume he stayed local, so I think he’ll be running in here. He was a strong debut winner at Keeneland for a tag, and it’s encouraging that he’s entered here under the NW1X condition, and is not available to be claimed. Chicken Truck (5) exits the same Optional Claiming/Allowance race that Pico D’Oro ran in. He blew the break that day, and never got involved. Prior to that he was steadily improving. He’s shown some ability to come from off the pace and could hit the exotics at a big price.
Race 8: $30,000-$20,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-5-12
She’salittledgy (6) and Ship’s Creek (5) seem to have a decent advantage over the rest of the field In terms of speed figures. I’ll take She’salittleedgy on top, as she’s exiting two strong efforts at Churchill. She has shown significant improvement in her last two races and this level should be a good fit for her. Ship’s Creek has had 7 starts, and her turf form seems better than her dirt form. Her sire, Midshipman, was a two time Grade 1 winner on synthetic, so it’s reasonable to assume she’ll handle the new surface. If there’s a longshot that might step up to spice up the exotics here, it may be Gypsy’s Feather (12). She’s by Munnings, so there’s reason to believe she’ll take to this surface. She debuted in a salty maiden special weight race at Oaklawn, where she was beaten by Merenith, from the Baffert barn. She blew the break and didn’t show much that day. She changes barns and drops in class for her second career start. There’s enough positive angles to take a swing with this one at long odds.