Saturday December 29th at Turfway Park
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Race 1: MC 30000, One mile on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 6:15 PM EDT.
Selections: 2-1A-3
(2) Its Yes: Today marks the first race for this colt since being claimed from the barn of trainer Brad Cox following a third place effort in a MC 15000 race over a mile on the dirt at Churchill Downs. Appears to be the lone speed in this field and if he gets loose on the lead, he could take them gate to wire provided he handles the Polytrack tonight. Yates is firing at a 40% rate with runners that are making their first start following being claimed.
(1A) Spunky Kitten: The Michael Maker trainee showed little in his career debut last mile racing a mile over the turf at Gulfstream Park West. However, he has been working solidly over the Polytrack at Turfway recently, he does drop in class tonight, and progeny from his sire, Kitten’s Joy, and damsire, Giant’s Causeway, in the past have performed well when racing over synthetic surfaces. Maker has been hot during this meet so far (31% win rate from 29 starts) and has done well with runners returning from layoffs of 46-90 days (20% win rate).
(3) Super Clear: The barn of Tracey Young sends out this son of Super Saver following a third place on December 12th at this distance versus similar company. Young has done incredibly well over the past three years with runners racing in maiden claiming races, winning at a 27%. Franklin (20% win rate from 64 starts in the Turfway meet so far) rides tonight.
Race 2: Clm 5000n1y, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 6:44 PM EDT.
Selections: 2-3-8
(2) Beach Hut: Will need to rebound off of a poor fifth place effort over six and a half furlongs against similar level company here at Turfway back on December 13th in order to have a chance tonight. However, he has finished in the exacta in four of his eight starts here at Turfway and has hit the board about 50% of the time when racing at this distance. If Beach Hut can return to the form he displayed in his first start here back on November 28th, then he will be a threat. Kinmon has been firing at a 20% rate with runners making their third start off of a layoff.
(3) Piner Cat: Ran a solid third in most recent effort here at tonight’s distance versus similar company; a repeat of that effort and form puts him solidly into contention. 80 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) earned from that performance ranks as the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. Although he has yet to win at Turfway, Piner Cat has finished in the money in 13 of 23 starts at today’s distance. Greenhill firing at a 17% rate with runners racing over all weather tracks.
(8) Two Grand: Going for a bit of a price play with this son of Soldat. Although he has yet to try racing over an all weather track, he has finished in the exacta in six of nine tries at today’s distance. Two Grand has fairly good early to mid speed and if he can return to the form that he showed recently when racing over the dirt at Mountaineer, he might have a chance at hitting the board tonight. Most recent work over a sloppy four furlongs was brilliantly sharp.
Race 3: Clm 5000, Six and a half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 7:13 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-7-4
(3) Victor Jara: Got up just in time to prevail by a neck against similar company two weeks ago here at Turfway, the slight stretchout in distance could work to his benefit tonight. 82 BSR earned in that effort is tied for the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. A repeat effort makes him a strong contender against this field. Davis firing at a 17% rate with runners making their second start off of a layoff, while Machado currently boasts 17% win rate in Turfway meet.
(7) Mark My Way: Has been competitive in both recent starts against similar foes here at Turfway and if he can continue to show that same ability whilst employing his good pace stalking talent then he should be in contention once again. Son of Noonmark has hit the board in seven of his ten lifetime starts here at Turfway and experience over the track could be crucial tonight.
(4) Mia Tiva Too: Son of Santiva makes debut on Polytrack tonight but had been competitive when sprinting during the fall at this class level at Indiana Grand. Slight drop in class along with pace-stalking abilities could help his chances tonight. Garcia has been winning at a 16% rate with runners making the transition from dirt to all weather surfaces and at a 20% rate with runners racing over all weather tracks.
Race 4: Clm 5000n2L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Threes Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 7:42 PM EDT.
Selections: NO OPINION PROVIDED
Race 5: Clm 7500n2L, Five furlongs on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 8:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 9-8-2
(9) Gliss: This filly did not show much of anything in her debut over the Polytrack last month but that was against much tougher company. Tonight she drops down in class and if she can return to the brilliant early speed and form that she displayed earlier this fall when sprinting at Indiana Grand, she could be particularly dangerous. Willing to give her another chance tonight considering her trainer’s stats in this sort of situation are absolutely excellent (34% win rate when dropping down two or more class levels) and given the fact that Prescott (26% win rate at Turfway) elects to remain onboard.
(8) Shivoo: Although this filly has been working well as of late for Ward over the Polytrack, she has not been seen racing in over nine months so it is entirely possible that she could need a race before returning to form. She was somewhat competitive when last seen sprinting here against much tougher foes at the beginning of the year; at that time she displayed excellent early speed and look for her to be forwardly placed once again. Over the past three years, Ward has been firing at a 22% rate with runners returning to racing following layoffs of 90 days or more.
(2) Headfirst: Willing to forgive last effort here for this filly as she was facing much tougher foes and the six furlongs might have been a little out of her comfort zone. The drop in class and slight cutback in distance along with her forward running style should certainly help her chances tonight. Her Brisnet Early Pace figures are amongst the best in the field, so look for her to break quickly tonight and try and wire this field.
Race 6: Clm 15000, One mile on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 8:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 4
(4) Aqua Frio: There appears to be enough speed in this field to allow this race to set up well enough for this son of Uncle Mo. He was likely taken out of his comfort zone when asked to sprint against much tougher company in his Turfway debut; a huge drop in class along with the return to a route distance should help his chances of attaining success tonight. Over the past 14 days when Maker and Prescott have hooked up, Prescott has finished in the exacta with nine of his last twelve mounts for Maker. Moreover, Maker has been firing at an 18% rate not only with runners making their second start for him but also receiving the claiming tag for the first time. Additionally, Maker has been winning at a 21% rate with runners making their second start off of a layoff.
Race 7: OC 40000n2x, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-9-4
(5) Land Battle: His most recent effort here at Turfway was against $50K Optional Claimers and perhaps that level of competition was just too tough; tonight he drops in class and will once again be racing at six furlongs, a distance at which he has only once finished out of the trifecta in nine career starts. His career debut at Turfway was a fantastic effort and if he can return to that form, he has a legitimate chance at winning once again tonight. Land Battle possesses excellent tactical speed and should be able to employ it to his advantage once again. Hammond has been winning at an 18% rate in allowance races over the past three years and the jockey upgrade to Prescott tonight certainly helps Land Battle’s chances.
(9) Kate’s Golden Dude: Will be interesting to see what this son of Touch Gold can do tonight when stepping up in class after decisively beating a field of $25K Optional Claimers over six and a half furlongs here two weeks ago. This colt has hit the board in four of five tries at tonight’s distance and the 87 BSR he earned in his last out effort ranks as the highest speed figure amongst the entire field. Kate’s Golden Dude primarily runs as a pace stalker and should encounter an ideal pace scenario tonight. Anderson has been firing at a 20% rate with runners that won their last race.
(4) Finnegan: Very intrigued to see what this Ward trainee will be able to accomplish when returning to racing tonight after a layoff of over eight months. This gelding has not only finished in the exacta in all three tries here at Turfway but has also finished in the exacta in both tries at six furlongs. He has been working solidly for Ward over the Polytrack this month and Ward’s 34% win rate with runners making the transition from dirt to all weather surfaces is very encouraging. Finnegan might need this race tonight but if he can show some glimpses of the form he displayed at the beginning of this year, then there is a chance that he could hit the board.
Race 8: Clm 7500n2L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 11-9-2
(11) Slowhand: Ward has been off to a hot start so far at Turfway having won 36% of his first 22 starts here whilst finishing in the money 59% of the time. With the exception of his most recent start here, this gelding has finished in the exacta in his last three starts at Turfway. Additionally, he has been working well over the Polytrack and his speed over the Polytrack is the fastest all weather speed amongst the entire field. Ward has been winning at a 20% rate with runners making their second start off of a layoff, while Machado has been hitting at a 20% rate when riding in route races this year.
(9) Monkeywitmybidness: This gelding narrowly lost when racing at this distance here at the end of last month and a repeat of that effort should make him competitive tonight. As he has only won once in 34 career starts it is very doubtful that he could win tonight but an on the board finish is not out of the question. West has been winning at a 15% rate with runners attempting route distances while Mojica has been hitting at a 17% rate when riding in route races this year.
(2) Pourmeanotherone: Perhaps the drop in class tonight will help out this son of Old Fashioned as Greenhill has been firing at a 19% rate with runners dropping down two or more class levels. Both of his starts at this distance and at this track have not been great but there are few others that appeal in this race and the ML odds of 8-1 is an enticing price.